Fiskeprediction Final

The day has come! After a delightful evening at Eurocafé last night, complete with rolling-on-sidewalk-in-gigglefits on our way home, we're feeling a little under the, em, weather today, but soon time to get ready for the big final. An attempt to predict the final result follows below, but be warned, I don't think I've ever been as clueless as this!

1 Cyprus | What the heck... Just a week ago, I thought it'd be lucky to scrape into top 15, and I really am usually not one to get too carried away by improved performances and rehearsals, but here I am, getting carried like there's no tomorrow and considering to grow my hair out.
2 France | Has disappeared a bit in the middle of semi qualifiers, but this should be up there. Jury winner?
3 Israel
4 Hungary | This is just wishful thinking, isn't it?
5 Sweden | Standard Swedish safe result.
6 Ireland | I'm a bit baffled this is 3rd in the betting, but can see it getting pretty good televote support.
7 Germany | Still not at all sold on this, but many others seems to be.
8 Norway
9 Bulgaria
10 Moldova | Refreshing and pure, somehow.
11 Australia | Loving this on the Lisbon dancefloors!
12 Estonia | After upping my expectations of this just before the first semi, I'm now back at thinking it disappears a bit. What's with all the long shots where the dress is just reduced to a lil'dot on the horizon?
13 Czechia | When I watched the recap and this came on, I realised I'd totally forgot it existed. But then they did the bum-wriggle and I giggled and it was back.
14 Lithuania | Not quite getting the massive betting on this, but it should do decently in the end.
15 Italy | Don't really think the staging and graphics work ("Where are they?"), but it's kinda in a niche of its own, so I assume it will get a certain amount of support.
16 Albania | Whereas this really works, with Eugent looking very charming, sweet and engaging throughout. Fear it won't get much but diaspora televotes, but hopefully the juries can help him.
17 Spain | I've had several times this season where I've thought this could really work in the televote, with all the 🧀, but with that draw, I now really doubt it.
18 Austria | One of my absolute favourites this year, but it all disappears a bit, doesn't it? And I wish he had an actual mic!
19 Portugal | Our Airbnb host was not at all keen on this, she said it had 'no emotions, we Portuguese need emotions', and while I personally disagree, I think the general public will be on Airbnb's side, and largely ignore.
20 Ukraine
21 Denmark
22 Serbia | I'm actually more baffled this qualified than Slovenia, but Serbia presumably have a certain amount of automatic points wrapped up, so can't see it going all the way to the bottom.
23 Finland
24 Slovenia | Was it actually the ill-advised and criticised break that did it for her in the end?
25 Netherlands | I refuse to listen to any kinds of arguments about juries voting for quality here. #ByeFelicia
26 United Kingdom | Poor SuRie...

Have a wonderful evening, everyone!

Fiskeprediction Semi 2

My first 24 hours in Lisbon mainly consisted of getting a very dirty and smelly cat out of our apartment (a three-floor old townhouse with lots of rooms and corners have MILLIONS of hiding places), but there was also some time for a slight sunburn for lunch and some kickass dancing at Eurocafé last night. The music was awesome (we kept saying "Right, after this one we'll head home!", but not a chance when the next one is Bandido or #We got love etc etc.

This is not my cat.

In a few hours it's back on the rosé for tonight's big show, where I'm going to be in the hall for the first time since 2011! So here's my prediction for it, can I improve from the 8/10 I managed on Tuesday?

1 Hungary | Yeah yeah fire.

2 Norway | Urk. Roger describes my exact feelings about this here.

3 Moldova | All the door-opening didn't get captured as well as I'd expected on the rehearsal clip I've seen, but I've loved this since it came out, and it's a much needed and well performed pile of fun in this line-up.

4 Sweden | This seems completely forgotten, and I'll admit I find it a bit soulless, but damn, it's slick and effective.

5 Ukraine | Yeah yeah fire.

6 Australia | Pure joy ❤️🧡💛💚💙💜

7 Denmark | There's a certain room in my apartment that adores this, so I might have to be careful what I say... Though to be fair, I actually don't really dislike this, I just find it all a bit dull, and not at all as anthemic and grand as they want it to be. And good god, that man is uncharismatic.

8 Montenegro | He's dressed like a fish, but what else are people going to vote for here, seriously?

9 Georgia | Today's surprise? I don't really have much faith in it, but if there's something that's going to suddenly shine through and work, it could well be this.

10 Netherlands | I'm going to be sooooo happy when I'm wrong with this, and San Marino is announced as the tenth qualifier instead! Worst song since Samson.

11 Romania | I love this a lot, but sadly think it's doomed. Would be a great shame if this is to be their first every non-qualifier.

12 Latvia | I'm expecting about 2 televote points for this, but maybe the juries will manage to sneak it through?

13 Poland | Raise your hand if you hate that hat 🙋‍

14 Malta | So much stuff, so much Malta.

15 Serbia | I want licorice now...

16 Slovenia | Such a shame they couldn't give her anything better than this. She's giving it her all, and is fab at it, but it's still hvala ne. They're just asking for it with that title.

17 Lol Marino | If they're holding up an Obinna Metu-sign, I'm voting for it.

18 Russia | Can it happen...? I believe it can.

More semi 1 predictions

I add myself to the line of people you're allowed to laugh at tomorrow, but Roger told me it was naughty not to predict, so here we go!

Estonia
Israel
Czech Republic
Austria
Azerbaijan
Ireland
Finland
Belgium
Lithuania
and
Yeah yeah, fire

Fiskeprediction Semi 1

I've been following rehearsals from Bergen and (very hot and sunny!) Lewisham so far this year, so be aware that I have no further magical insight than most of you. All of the below is merely based on whatever others have been saying, some short, official rehearsal clips (i've completely avoided full videos filmed with Nokia 3210 cameras from the back of the hall and such), and a little peek at betting odds fluctuations - but mainly simply my own head and heart and belly and weak bones. To be fair, my predictions in the past have often been better more correct before rehearsals start than after following rehearsals on-site and getting caught in various bubbles and group-thinking, so maybe I'm more to be trusted than some other years...?

Probably not, but hey ho.

We'll obvs not know the full results of tonight's semi until after the final, but I'll attempt a prediction of the complete ranking anyway, maybe msot of all to try to sort out my own thoughts a bit.

1 Estonia | I've liked this a lot since the first time I heard it (and still do), but have never had any faith in it being a winner. Yet here we are... It just feels like while most other favourites have had various hiccups or little things not quite coming together on stage, this seems to be very slick and exactly how it should be, and obviously standing out a mile, much thanks to the dress. I tend to insist you need a really strong song to swwep up the votes, but sometimes the visuals can be enough too, provided the song is decent enough and fits as a soundtrack.
2 Israel | Maybe not quite as excellent as the preview video, but hey, a few steps down from that is still pretty kickass.
3 Cyprus | I was very hopeful when Eleni was announced, as I had hopes for another "Τι Κοιτάς", but I was quite disappointed when the song came out. Promising build-up, but just no chorus at all. The disappointment has faded a bit thanks to this.
4 Czechia | Never quite saw this as a contender for the top spot, but should do decently well.
5 Austria | I fear the televoters will forget this one a bit, so not really hopeful of it doing much come Saturday (even though it deserves it!), but I'm expecting more than enough jury support tonight to make it qualify.
6 Ireland | Sweet, gentle and genuine near the end tends to go well, and the performance of this actually seems to work too. How un-Irish :-o
7 Bulgaria | I really don't understand why they needed to drag up all these people nobody know to fight over the attention in this. Nor do I understand who is going to vote massively for it. But it can't just all be hype, can it...?
8 Greece | No, it can't do a "1944", it doesn't have anything in common with it.
9 Belarus | Anyone else thinking this can make it, or is it just me? It's obviously ridiculous, but I think there might be an audience for this in certain parts of the continent. I also actually think it's a great song, so I might be a bit biased here...
10 Finland | I've been swapping this and Azerbaijan about eleventy-five times now, so I just have to settle for one of them. This is slightly stronger, slightly more "edgy", and a bit later in the draw...
11 Azerbaijan | ...while this is slightly more Azerbaijan, which kinda should trump the above, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
12 Lithuania | It has gained some momentum during rehearsals, and I do think it's quite lovely, but something has to go...
13 Armenia | I tend to forget this exists, and with an Armenian diaspora that's starting to seem slightly less interested, maybe they will too?
14 Albania | I really hope I'm wrong here - maaaayyybe the jury will appreciate his professionalism? Pwettypwease...? 🤞
15 Croatia | At least they're not pouring sand in their faces on stage, that's worth a few points.
16 Belgium | I always found this one 'nice', but rather chanceless. Glad to see most others have come to their senses too.
17 Switzerland | Raise your hand if you hate that hat 🙋‍
18 Macedonia | I looooove this, and I am a firm believer in the fact that great things generally will do great, but no rule without exceptions, I suppose... 😔
19 Iceland | It's just too obvious to predict it last, but then sometimes very obvious things happen.

Decently confident of the first 5-6 or so here, but after that, anything can happen! We're in for a fun and dramatic night!