Saturday 14 May 2016

Some last minute thoughts and predictions

It's been two long weeks already, and yet they've passed by very quickly. Lots of time has been spent in the press centre watching rehearsals, especially the first week, and lots of time has been spent running around between different events. Via this blog, via Twitter and via Instagram reports, photos and a little bit of everything has been shared with you guys. I hope you've enjoyed it as much as we have! Even though I have to admit I have felt rather drained of energy now towards the end of the Eurovision period.

Now as the final approaches, we shall soon find out who won. We'll also know the full result both of the final as well as the semifinals. As I said long ago, I wouldn't be attempting to do a lot of predictions this year. Because I'm always terrible at making predictions. But right now I'm gonna attempt to make a few anyway. Even if only for the sake of your entertainment, and then you can all laugh at me when it all turns out to be completely wrong.

So, here we go...

* The contest will be won by either Australia or Russia.

* Armenia and Ukraine will be top 5. Possibly joined by Sweden.

* Germany will be the worst-placed song of the Big 5.

* France will not win, but still do better than a lot of people think. I would guess mid top 10.

* Malta will do a lot better with jury votes than with tele votes. So will the Netherlands. But both for completely different reasons.

* The interval act will take even more time than scheduled.

* Belgium was top 3 in it's semifinal, but will only make top 10 in the final.

* Bosnia was 11th in it's semifinal. Iceland was 13th.

* Sweden will give it's jury 12 to Australia.

* At least half of the juries giving their 12 to Russia will mention Sergey by name while doing so. Very likely accompanied by words like "Talented", "You deserve it" and "You are our only one".

That's all :-) Enjoy the show, wherever you are watching it!

Final prediction

Okay, it's time. Time to put my money where my mouth is (well, not really, I'll be hopping over to Betfair to do that in a bit). But here goes, here's my final prediction for the results of this year's contest.

And the winner is...

1. Australia - I have to admit that I wasn't fully convinced by this on Thursday, but everyone else seems to be, it seems to selling well across Europe and it's both jury and televote-bait. So I'm putting this on top.
2. Sweden - I've had them on top for much of the season, and maybe it's the bloggers talking me out of it, but I'm knocking it down to second now.
3. Russia - I never really saw this as a winner, and Tuesday's performance only confirmed my feelings.
4. Latvia - I would love love love this to win. Pretty please?
5. Ukraine
6. Armenia
7. Serbia
8. Italy
9. Azerbaijan - Samra seems to be singing just well enough when combined with her backing vocalists, and it looked fabulous on Tuesday.
10. Bulgaria - I'd originally had them in the Top 10 before rehearsals, then took them out after reports... And now when I made my ranking now, they just slipped in.

11. Netherlands - not doing as well as I'd expected, and the early draw hits this one hard
12. France
13. Israel
14. Austria - it's been lovely seeing some commenters who were quite vitriolic about how Zoe had no chance, what with singing in French and all, totally eating their words now - surprisingly enough, only after her good result in the semi, rather than after they'd seen the same performance in rehearsals.
15. Poland - not deserved, but diaspora...
16. Malta
17. Georgia - still loved by the press, I strongly believe it'll get its share of votes from its fans, but that that won't be enough for it to climb any higher.
18. Cyprus
19. Hungary
20. Belgium - I think first is a horrible draw for this, and it's going to get forgotten.
21. Lithuania
22. Spain - I'm still convinced this is doing badly, despite reports that the crowd in the jury rehearsal loved it.
23. UK - much like Spain, they seem to be charming the cameras and the crowd in the hall alike. This is, the UK always seems to come across 'surprisingly well' in rehearsals, and then it almost never actually translates into a decent finish.
24. Croatia
25. Czech Republic - finally everyone seems to have noticed how staggeringly dull this is.
26. Germany

Sunny prediction, part tres (or uno, etc)

The Syden-weather finally picked up, and my predicting skills improved to nine on Thursday, totalling at 17 out of 20. But I'm pretty sure it's going downhill from here... Last year there was a bunch of countries where it felt obvious they would do well, whereas there's far less of it this year. Which makes it harder to predict, but might also mean it'll be a more even, and hence entertaining, voting tonight. Will we have our first ever Eurovision that wins neither the televote nor the jury vote, for instance? If so, I fear it could be Australia, just gathering up solid support all over, without properly exciting anyone. It certainly doesn't excite me...

I can't really claim I think the ranking below is what will actually happen tonight, but it's the best I could do...

Enjoy the show, everyone!

1 Russia | Not sure it would've come top 3 last year, but it has a certain level of points, and I can't see any of the others getting more. The only thing making it an unlikely winner is that it's my favourite...
2 Austria | I need a crazy prediction, don't I? The only one that seemed to gain some kind of buzz or momentum from the semis that wasn't already there - though obviously nowhere near like Conchita or Common Linnets.
3 Australia | This has bored me all season, and the performance on Thursday didn't change my mind one way or the other. But everyone else seems to love it, so...
4 Latvia | Whereas this really convinced me in the semi - I wouldn't be surprised if it actually won it.
5 Sweden | Great song, very fitting and understated performance, and stands out a mile.
6 Ukraine
7 Armenia | They really nailed this with the camerawork and staging, but it still is what it is, so doubt it'll do much better than this.
8 Bulgaria | Prettyplease!
9 Italy | <3
10 France | Have never managed to get into the loving for this, and it seems to have dwindled a bit during rehearsals. But still, as a song it seems to be appreciated by many, so it should do decently.
11 Croatia | Can see this getting lost too, but it really clicked on Tuesday.
12 Israel | Can see this getting lost too, but it really clicked on Thursday.
13 Azerbaijan
14 Serbia
15 Lithuania | Have been thinking this might get completely lost, but the stage looks absolutely amazeballs for it.
16 Georgia
17 United Kingdom
18 Cyprus
19 Netherlands | I somehow assume this would've gotten a better draw if SVT thought it had any kind of realistic chance.
20 Hungary | Usual Hungary result, I guess?
21 Poland | Love this, but he wasn't exactly nailing it on Thursday, was he... Nor in the jury final last night, it seems. #ooops
22 Malta | Pleasepleaseplease, can this fall flat on its quacky arse?!
23 Spain | Ysy.
24 Belgium
25 Czech Republic | I imagine this will get a certain jury support, but when on as #2, I can't see it doing much at all in the televote. So its result will kinda depend on how many points you need to avoid the lower places - my guess is quite a few.
26 Germany | Who's gonna vote for this? I'm not.

Download and print your scorecards for the final !

Here they are: The -by now- traditional ESC Nation scorecards. And who are we to break with tradition?

This year we also included an inkjet-friendly version, just to make sure you don't run out of ink after printing that 7th scorecard. The scorecard is pretty self-explanatory: Fill in your notes, points, minuses or plusses next to the name of each country. At the end of the show, you can fill in your own top 10. Don't forget to indicate whether this top 10 is your personal preference or a prediction of the final result. Please share with as many people as you like!