Tuesday 9 May 2017


I hate this bit because everyone else always gets more right than me. And I hate not being right. I think that's a Piscean thing.

So anyway, with no further explanation here we go, the qualifiers in running order:


I think Belgium and Azerbaijan are a bit borderline, but Blanche is improving with every performance and so I'll give her the benefit of the doubt and as much as I'd love for Azerbaijan to fail I expect they'll just make it, too. And although it pains me to say it (because TUNE), Moldova could also be a bit as risk if the juries take a real disliking.

And if two of those three do miss out then I see Georgia and Australia taking their place.

I would most like to be wrong about Iceland. I love the song but it just isn't coming across on screen.

As an alternative to my predicting, I also consulted random.org which could be a more reliable source. In which case these are the finalists:

Czech Republic

A Semi 1 prediction

Semi 1 is a really tough one to predict. There are about 13 qualifiers that, under other circumstances and with different competition, would be a sure bet for the final. I don't think there are any potential shock qualifiers tonight, but there's a few possible surprise non-qualifiers.

1. Portugal - I'm thinking, and hoping, that this is the Calm After the Storm of this year.
2. Sweden
3. Cyprus
4. Armenia
5. Greece
6. Finland
7. Moldova
- ugh, but the running order, coupled with the performance, has been a gift for this one.
8. Azerbaijan - a safe qualifier, but I'm not convinced either the song or the act are as vote-grabby as many think, and I'll be looking to back out of my Top 10 final bet on this.
9. Australia
10. Latvia
- because the worst result for a song performed last in the running order since 2013 is 11th, and Triana Park only look about 80% as ridiculous as Moje 3 did.

11. Poland - I'm very on the fence with this one. We've seen they have a motivated diaspora, but they haven't been fully tested yet.
12. Belgium - I've always thought it was battling Finland for votes, and the way things have been going from rehearsals, Blanche is losing that battle.
13. Georgia - I had it as a potential borderline qualifier prior to rehearsals, but they just haven't brought the performance this year.
14. Slovenia
15. Montenegro
16. Iceland
- because you need a face that people want to vote for.
17. Albania - amaze, obvs, but too shouty and inaccessible, and the votes it was going to get will be swallowed by Georgia.
18. Czech Republic - because as Rykka showed us last year, sometimes the obvious last placer really is the last of its kind.

Fishy Semi 1 Prediction

Once again, this little fish is not actually at Eurovision in Kyiv, but in a sunny Syden location. That's not going to stop me from trying to predict the result, is it?

It's obviously only the ten qualifiers we'll get to know tonight, but just to sort out my mind, I've tried to predict the full result below. So we won't know how wrong I am until after the final, when the full semi results are revealed. I'm guessing about eleventyfive metres wrong.

1 Portugal | Hoping and thinking this will win both jury and televote.
2 Finland | Ilike both piano part and rest.
3 Armenia | Good and different song, good staging, being Armenia... If this doesn't qualify you can call me an owl for the next month.
4 Belgium | Reports have not been promising, but I'm keeping faith - I think it's way too strong a song to be wrecked by a performance that isn't necessarily perfect.
5 Sweden | Dulldulldull.
6 Azerbaijan | 🐴
7 Greece | An actual chorus would get this higher, but I suppose a beat and her face should be enough to see it safely through, even though I doubt it'll do much in the final.
8 Cyprus | Of the rehearsal footage I've seen, this is the one that impressed me the most. It has been fluctuating between 'lost cause' and 'borderliner losing out' all season for me, but I think it should be pretty safe after all.
9 Georgia | I've started bloody loving this. Best ending in the conteWHOMP
10 Slovenia | Certainly helped by the draw - quite ordinary, but think it'll come across as 'solid' at this point.

11 Moldova | Doubt the jury will like it, so it'll come down to the televote. I don't think it'll be enough personally, but certainly won't be far off.
12 Poland | Love this, but fear it'll disappear a bit.
13 Australia | Dulldulldull.
14 Albania | Tuneless Albanian screeching with big teeth, what's not to love?! Easily my favourite all season, but for some unfathomable reason, not everyone seem to agree! 🙄
15 Iceland | Good song, but it's hard to care about, somehow, and she comes across as pretty cold. Which could often work on me as a Scandi, but when even I think she seems unlikeable, what are Southern Europeans etc going to think... It all gives me Icebreaker vibes.
16 Montenegro | For someone as flaunty as Slavko, it's quite impressive how boring this is.
17 Czechia | Yes, I'm doing the Czechia-thing, deal with it. Surely not getting any televotes apart from maybe a handful from Poland?
18 Latvia | Czechia might be able to gather some jury points, but can't see why this would. And why would anyone televote for a sub-par dancey act performed on a dark, aggressive, neon-y stage by unlikeable people?

Have a fun evening, everyone - don't forget to stock up on rosé and icecubes!

Haiku #9

Technical trouble
What difference does it make
This is jury love