Thursday 10 May 2018

Elin's semi 2 predictions

While helping Yair cook and solving pool cover emergencies with Roger, it's time again to not be naughty and make some predictions!

I think these will be our qualifiers tonight:

Russia (yes, the performance is quite sox, but it's Russia. I think they can send anything and still qualify. Nobody will be happier if that's not true though!)

Yeah yeah, Sweden

More predicting for your amusement

Yes, I only got 5/10 on Tuesday. I KNOW. My hope rather than genuine belief in Croatia and Switzerland was foolish, I admit.

So tonight I will ignore my wishes, and therefore confidently predict these qualifiers, in no particular order:


I know Australia have had some terrible rehearsals, but remember Blanche last year? And even if Jessica is average, she will probably still be better than eight others.

I was tempted to put Russia in there instead of Malta, because Russia. But normality has been suspended I think.

But I do hope I'm wrong about Malta - and Australia, Norway and Denmark. And Georgia. And Latvia.

And Slovenia.

Fiskeprediction Semi 2

My first 24 hours in Lisbon mainly consisted of getting a very dirty and smelly cat out of our apartment (a three-floor old townhouse with lots of rooms and corners have MILLIONS of hiding places), but there was also some time for a slight sunburn for lunch and some kickass dancing at Eurocafé last night. The music was awesome (we kept saying "Right, after this one we'll head home!", but not a chance when the next one is Bandido or #We got love etc etc.

This is not my cat.

In a few hours it's back on the rosé for tonight's big show, where I'm going to be in the hall for the first time since 2011! So here's my prediction for it, can I improve from the 8/10 I managed on Tuesday?

1 Hungary | Yeah yeah fire.
2 Norway | Urk. Roger describes my exact feelings about this here.
3 Moldova | All the door-opening didn't get captured as well as I'd expected on the rehearsal clip I've seen, but I've loved this since it came out, and it's a much needed and well performed pile of fun in this line-up.
4 Sweden | This seems completely forgotten, and I'll admit I find it a bit soulless, but damn, it's slick and effective.
5 Ukraine | Yeah yeah fire.
6 Australia | Pure joy ❤️🧡💛💚💙💜
7 Denmark | There's a certain room in my apartment that adores this, so I might have to be careful what I say... Though to be fair, I actually don't really dislike this, I just find it all a bit dull, and not at all as anthemic and grand as they want it to be. And good god, that man is uncharismatic.
8 Montenegro | He's dressed like a fish, but what else are people going to vote for here, seriously?
9 Georgia | Today's surprise? I don't really have much faith in it, but if there's something that's going to suddenly shine through and work, it could well be this.
10 Netherlands | I'm going to be sooooo happy when I'm wrong with this, and San Marino is announced as the tenth qualifier instead! Worst song since Samson.
11 Romania | I love this a lot, but sadly think it's doomed. Would be a great shame if this is to be their first every non-qualifier.
12 Latvia | I'm expecting about 2 televote points for this, but maybe the juries will manage to sneak it through?
13 Poland | Raise your hand if you hate that hat 🙋‍
14 Malta | So much stuff, so much Malta.
15 Serbia | I want licorice now...
16 Slovenia | Such a shame they couldn't give her anything better than this. She's giving it her all, and is fab at it, but it's still hvala ne. They're just asking for it with that title.
17 Lol Marino | If they're holding up an Obinna Metu-sign, I'm voting for it.
18 Russia | Can it happen...? I believe it can.

Betfair update - and we have a horse race!

Betfair, which is probably the leading indicator of movement in the odds, has Israel closing in on Norway and now sharing a joint second, while Cyprus holds on to first:
  • Cyprus - 3.35
  • Norway - 7 (trend: drifting)
  • Israel - 7 (trend: shortening)
  • France - 10 (trend: drifting)
  • Lithuania - 12.5 (trend: shortening)