Soon we will know who is the best in the Eurovision Song Contest!
As the final of the 69th Concours is upon us, I thought I would share my final Final predictions in a top 26 ranking.
So without further ado, here I go... Bye!
"Oh no no, come back" - Marie N
Because you ask so nicely then.
26. Iceland
I can't see juries voting for this at all and doubt televoters will care a lot for it either with so much else on offer.
25. Spain
Lo siento eurofans but I think this will have among the least convincing overall jury and televote appeal.
That said, I think the points will be scattered all over the place so we could very well end up with a 2011-style result with very high scores even for the lowest ranked countries.
24. United Kingdom
Even the vocals were a bit off during the last rehearsals, which was kinda like their whole thing. This will get some jury points but I do fear another "I'm sorry... zero points" scenario in the televote.
23. Armenia
This could be a typical case of "does relatively well in the semi but then falls apart in the final". The running order position also does this no favours whatsoever.
22. Denmark
So so so happy for Sissal and my new home country but I predict a Anja Nissen-esque result with quite a few jury points but only televote points from Australia, because why not?
21. Norway
That's three Nordics outside of the top 20, correct. At this point things become a bit random admittedly but as nice as it is as an opener, I fear it will likely be mostly forgotten when the recaps come along.
20. Portugal
I had this dead last for the semi but since then have some somewhat around - I think I can understand why people would pick up their phones to vote for it, to a limited extent at least. This after Malta is brilliant.
19. Luxembourg
I really wish I could have placed this higher, and yes, last year proved that #2 doesn't have to mean anything bad. But Luxembourg just isn't Ukraine. I can't see this getting a lot of televote points either and think jury support will be limited.
18. Malta
Maybe this is wishful thinking on my end but I also expect juries to not go for this at all and audiences only to a limited extent in a handful of countries that will shower it with love, only for it to be ignored by others.
17. Poland
This is partly because I've grown to dislike the Polish fan media journalists in the media centre. They are LOUD. But also because I think Finland will still overshadow this.
Yes, I also regret not placing this 18th to repeat her result from 30 years ago.
16. Germany
I still think this could do a surprise top 10 in the televote but expect very little jury support. Too bad as Baller really is a banger.
15. Lithuania
This will pick up some high scores from a few countries and probably nothing from most - but I'm very glad to have it in the final. Don't expect juries to massively go for this either so a midtable result seems the ceiling to me.
14. Latvia
The opposite where I expect quite some jury love but less attention from televoters. But again, so so happy it made the final, against my own pessimistic expectations - hope this will do better again tonight!
13. Netherlands
I know. Sorry noorderburen. But I do think the running order did Claude dirty and I fear it will hurt his chances to have it so close to two of the other arguably more 'artistic' performances (Austria, Latvia and later Albania being the others imho).
12. Estonia
I know, the Baltics are all very close! But the early draw will not do this favours. I still expect around 100 televote points but very little from the juries.
11. Italy
I do think this stands out between Erika and Justyna in a good way, which is why I actually bumped it up quite a bit compared to what I had in mind initially. Juries will really appreciate this but televoters much less so I fear.
10. San Marino
Yes. Don't freak out. Rather, hear me out.
This has an amazing position in the running order, right after two of the big favourites and the very personal, intense French performance, only followed by the more difficult to digest Albanian song. I expect the public to react very positively to this, against what I hope.
09. Greece
Stunning staging and vocals elevate this a lot more than what I had in mind prior to the dress rehearsals. A 2022-esque result seems feasible.
08. Albania
I will never be the song's biggest fan but think it was more impactful in the semi than the final flow. I fear being a closer and coming right after the horrible insanely catchy Tutta l'Italia will hurt the chances of this in the televote. But it will definitely be up there - my top 8 prediction consists of the 'big hitters' for me.
07. Ukraine
Well, we all know why.
06. Switzerland
Even though I fear this will get 85% or more of its total points from juries alone, I do believe in a good to very good showing for the host country. For what it's worth, this would be my winner if I had a say.
05. Israel
See Ukraine - although I expect more jury votes and (slightly) less public votes than last year. Still, I wouldn't be surprised as this would top the televote ranking as I expect scores to be lower and more scattered than in previous editions.
<insert split screen>
04. Finland
This is such a breath of fresh air in the final running order and will go very far. This could have been an Eleni Foureira situation had it been in semi 1, I think, in terms of momentum build. But for now I think this is its ceiling.
03. Austria
It pains me to write this as it is still my big favourite and I hope I will be wrong. But I can't see audiences following en masse although this might still be my best guess for a jury winner. Not as convincingly as the past two years, but still - if it can do that, it will be a lot more difficult to beat.
02. France
I had not really rated Maman prior to the dress rehearsals but the performance works so well. It has a wonderful position in the running order... but I think a 2021-esque result is most realistic still.
01. Sweden
Anticlimax much right? I know. Hear me out.
I think Sweden will win overall but without winning either the jury or public vote. 2016 or 2019 style really.
And then we all go to Örnsköldsvik together and have a gay old time next year!!
Semi result predictions:
- Sweden and Israel won the semis
- In both semis I expect the battle for 10th place to have been very close
- No country will have ended with 0 points
We'll see!!