So my semi 1 prediction somehow turned out to be pretty accurate. Only getting Hungary wrong instead of San Marino was a surprise, but I have to say I was pleasantly surprised to see San Marino making it. Serhat wasn't very good, but it's the kind of stuff every Eurovision final needs. So all is well.
Now, the 2nd semifinal is definitely a lot harder. I feel like there's about 15 songs that will qualify. So there's gonna be a lot of room for surprise non-qualifications. And there's a few songs that seem to have gained a lot of momentum with the rehearsals. Austria seems to be in with a good shot of qualifying in spite of previously being considered quite chanceless. KUNG FU PÆNDA seems to be doing a good job of lifting the song on stage, and I can see it getting a decen tresult in the televote and possibly being top 5 with the juries. Another song that seems to have increased its chances a lot with the performance is North Macedonia. Even if it's far from my favourite, I can see it doing better than I originally expected. Will it be enough to qualiy? Maybe... But I am leaning towards a yes.
Otherwise I think most of the more obvious qualifiers (Sweden, Russia, Netherlands, Azerbaijan, Malta, etc) will make it in the end. But if we'll have a surprise non-qualification it could possible be... Norway? I do hope they make it, but it might just be a bit too eurovisiony and gimmicky for the juries, and not strong enough to place high enough with televoters in this strong semifinal. I would be sad to see a Stella Mwangi type of result for it, but maybe that's what will happen. (Now watch them win the semi).
So, it's a really tough semi to predict, but these are my 10 picks.
01 - Armenia - Srbuk - "Walking Out"
02 - Ireland - Sarah McTernan - "22"
03 - Moldova - Anna Odobescu - "Stay"
04 - Switzerland - Luca Hänni - "She Got Me"
05 - Latvia - Carousel - "That Night"
06 - Romania - Ester Peony - "On a Sunday"
07 - Denmark - Leonora - "Love Is Forever"
08 - Sweden - John Lundvik - "Too Late for Love"
09 - Austria - PÆNDA - "Limits"
10 - Croatia - Roko - "The Dream"
11 - Malta - Michela - "Chameleon"
12 - Lithuania - Jurij Veklenko - "Run with the Lions"
13 - Russia - Sergey Lazarev - "Scream"
14 - Albania - Jonida Maliqi - "Ktheju tokës"
15 - Norway - KEiiNO - "Spirit in the Sky"
16 - Netherlands - Duncan Laurence - "Arcade"
17 - North Macedonia - Tamara Todevska - "Proud"
18 - Azerbaijan - Chingiz - "Truth"
I would however not be unhappy if I was wrong when it comes to a lot of these. Ireland qualifying would be very nice, and Lithuania has been one of my favourite songs all season. But this semifinal just has too many songs that deserve the final.