As we did with Semi 1, we've taken a look at the current bookies' odds for qualifying from the second semi-final. In the list below, we've simply ranked the eighteen competing entries by their likelihood of qualifying, according to the odds currently offered on Betfair.
1. Bulgaria (1.05)
2. Estonia (1.19)
3. Romania (1.22)
4. Netherlands (1.23)
5. Denmark (1.24)
6. Hungary (1.34)
7. Israel (1.43)
8. Belarus (1.5)
9. Norway (1.58)
10. Austria (1.61)
11. Serbia (1.82)
12. Croatia (2.3)
13. Switzerland (2.48)
14. Macedonia (2.58)
15. Ireland (3.2)
16. Malta (3.3)
17. Lithuania (8)
18. San Marino (8.8)
A clear ten here, then, with only Serbia sitting relatively close. There's money to be made if you think one of those at the lower end of the top 10 (or even the upper end) isn't a certain qualifier, or if you think one of the outsiders has a chance of making it in. Again, this blogger does have a bet on one of those outsiders (though it's one I'm slightly regretting now!).
Bringing you all the news and gossip from the rehearsals in Vienna
Showing posts with label betting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label betting. Show all posts
Monday, 8 May 2017
Friday, 5 May 2017
Who's qualifying from Semi 1? The bookies' view
For both semi-finals this year, we're going to take a quick survey of how the betting market views the chances of each song.
What we'll be doing is simply ranking all the songs by the odds available on Betfair following the rehearsals, from the lowest (i.e. considered most likely to qualify) to the highest.
At time of writing, the odds available on Betfair for the semi 1 songs to qualify are:
1. Sweden (1.03)
2. Armenia (1.07)
3. Azerbaijan (1.14)
4. Portugal (1.16)
5. Australia (1.22)
6. Greece (1.26)
7. Finland (1.28)
8. Moldova (1.37)
9. Cyprus (1.43)
10. Belgium (1.62)
11. Latvia (1.73)
12. Poland (2.08)
13. Georgia (3.4)
14. Slovenia (4.3)
15. Iceland (4.4)
16. Albania (5.7)
17. Montenegro (7.4)
18. Czech Republic (12.5)
This means there are effectively nine songs the market considered 'safe' now, with Belgium and Latvia fighting it out for the last qualification place. Poland are still potentially in with a shout, and the remaining six are long shots for qualification. But if you think one or more of those six is going to make it through (and this writer does, and has a bet placed to prove it), that's where the money is to be made.
What we'll be doing is simply ranking all the songs by the odds available on Betfair following the rehearsals, from the lowest (i.e. considered most likely to qualify) to the highest.
At time of writing, the odds available on Betfair for the semi 1 songs to qualify are:
1. Sweden (1.03)
2. Armenia (1.07)
3. Azerbaijan (1.14)
4. Portugal (1.16)
5. Australia (1.22)
6. Greece (1.26)
7. Finland (1.28)
8. Moldova (1.37)
9. Cyprus (1.43)
10. Belgium (1.62)
11. Latvia (1.73)
12. Poland (2.08)
13. Georgia (3.4)
14. Slovenia (4.3)
15. Iceland (4.4)
16. Albania (5.7)
17. Montenegro (7.4)
18. Czech Republic (12.5)
This means there are effectively nine songs the market considered 'safe' now, with Belgium and Latvia fighting it out for the last qualification place. Poland are still potentially in with a shout, and the remaining six are long shots for qualification. But if you think one or more of those six is going to make it through (and this writer does, and has a bet placed to prove it), that's where the money is to be made.
Saturday, 23 May 2015
Final betting guide: some bets you should have placed
For an event that's meant to be the highlight of our year as Eurovision fans, final night can sometimes be a bit of an anti-climax. We've seen nearly all the songs, we have a good idea of how everything's going to be performed, and, more often than not in recent years, the winner is a bit of a foregone conclusion.
So, let's spice things up a bit with a few bets!
The obvious place for most people to bet is the win market, but honestly, that's a bit dull. All the good money has gone weeks ago, and unless you've suddenly spotted something that you missed until the semi-finals, betting on the final is all a bit ho-hum. Sweden are an ever greater favourite than they were before, with best odds of 2.4; maybe you've spotted something in Belgium, whose odds are now at 11, having come in dramatically since the semi-final, or you still have faith in Italy, whose odds have drifted slightly to 6 since the running order announcement.
However, let's brighten up the rest of the voting. Betting on other outcomes gives you the chance to look further down the scoreboard - particularly if you're convinced Sweden are winning, betting on other results can liven up a potentially dull voting.
There's obviously the Top 3, Top 4, Top 5 and Top 10 markets offered by a number of bookies (though they rarely offer all combinations). The Top 10 market has been one of my favourites to bet on this year, as with a few key favourites probably occupying the top positions, the rest of the high end of the scoreboard could be a bit volatile. It's worth remembering that you don't always need a huge amount of support to reach 9th or 10th - Ruth Lorenzo came 10th with just 74 points last year.
This means that a country can often reach the top 10 without getting all-round support - either just winning votes from one part of Europe or, as Ruth did, scoring mainly from juries. Interesting bets here to my mind therefore include Georgia, at 2.75, and Romania, at 3.25. I also find it intriguing that you can still more than double your money by betting on Azerbaijan to be Top 10. The performance on Thursday was, to my mind, overly messy and distracting, but I still think there'll be certain viewers who will gobble this up.
Of course, if you want to be looking down at the right of the scoreboard, there's always the market for last place. The UK is 'favourite' here, with odds of 4, but I'm surprised you can get odds of 11 for Poland to come last - they only narrowly escaped the last place in 2008 with a similarly-styled song, and could well go one worse, with televoters and juries alike having plenty of other stronger-voiced balladeers to choose from.
One of my favourite markets during the final is the head-to-heads (sometimes called match bets). This effectively pits one country against another, with the higher placed one winning. There's tons of combinations of these spread among the various bookmakers, and I'd advise you to have a browse. Particularly if you think a certain song is underrated, it might be safer to bet on it to beat another, weaker song, rather than to come Top 5 or Top 10 - after all, if you bet on France to beat the UK, France could come 26th and you'd still win your bet if the UK came last!
One of the countries I've been looking at in the matches is Germany, as I feel they're generally quite underrated - not a top 10 contender, but also likely not bottom 5 to my mind. So I've taken odds of 2.25 for them to finish ahead of Poland, for example, who, as you'll have gathered from above or my earlier prediction, I think are pretty doomed. There's also odds of 2.1 available for them to beat France, though I haven't gone near that one as France could potentially gather a lot of jury support. It can also be fun to bet on matches that are rated quite close, and keep an eye on them throughout the voting - Greece vs Cyprus is always a good one (Greece are seen as the favourite here), or Armenia vs Azerbaijan. One head-to-head that stuck out to me was the 3.5 offered by Bet365 for Hungary to finish ahead of Romania. While I do think Romania is probably the victor here, those generous odds convinced me it was worth a punt.
Finally, there's always the occasional random bet out there, and this year bwin want to know if you think Loïc Nottet will score more points than Mariya Yaremchuk did last year, or if Polina Gagarina can get more points than Andras Kallay-Saunders amassed (spoiler: yes).
As always, oddschecker is your friend, and I hope you have a very enjoyable (and profitable) evening!
So, let's spice things up a bit with a few bets!
The obvious place for most people to bet is the win market, but honestly, that's a bit dull. All the good money has gone weeks ago, and unless you've suddenly spotted something that you missed until the semi-finals, betting on the final is all a bit ho-hum. Sweden are an ever greater favourite than they were before, with best odds of 2.4; maybe you've spotted something in Belgium, whose odds are now at 11, having come in dramatically since the semi-final, or you still have faith in Italy, whose odds have drifted slightly to 6 since the running order announcement.
However, let's brighten up the rest of the voting. Betting on other outcomes gives you the chance to look further down the scoreboard - particularly if you're convinced Sweden are winning, betting on other results can liven up a potentially dull voting.
There's obviously the Top 3, Top 4, Top 5 and Top 10 markets offered by a number of bookies (though they rarely offer all combinations). The Top 10 market has been one of my favourites to bet on this year, as with a few key favourites probably occupying the top positions, the rest of the high end of the scoreboard could be a bit volatile. It's worth remembering that you don't always need a huge amount of support to reach 9th or 10th - Ruth Lorenzo came 10th with just 74 points last year.
This means that a country can often reach the top 10 without getting all-round support - either just winning votes from one part of Europe or, as Ruth did, scoring mainly from juries. Interesting bets here to my mind therefore include Georgia, at 2.75, and Romania, at 3.25. I also find it intriguing that you can still more than double your money by betting on Azerbaijan to be Top 10. The performance on Thursday was, to my mind, overly messy and distracting, but I still think there'll be certain viewers who will gobble this up.
Of course, if you want to be looking down at the right of the scoreboard, there's always the market for last place. The UK is 'favourite' here, with odds of 4, but I'm surprised you can get odds of 11 for Poland to come last - they only narrowly escaped the last place in 2008 with a similarly-styled song, and could well go one worse, with televoters and juries alike having plenty of other stronger-voiced balladeers to choose from.
One of my favourite markets during the final is the head-to-heads (sometimes called match bets). This effectively pits one country against another, with the higher placed one winning. There's tons of combinations of these spread among the various bookmakers, and I'd advise you to have a browse. Particularly if you think a certain song is underrated, it might be safer to bet on it to beat another, weaker song, rather than to come Top 5 or Top 10 - after all, if you bet on France to beat the UK, France could come 26th and you'd still win your bet if the UK came last!
One of the countries I've been looking at in the matches is Germany, as I feel they're generally quite underrated - not a top 10 contender, but also likely not bottom 5 to my mind. So I've taken odds of 2.25 for them to finish ahead of Poland, for example, who, as you'll have gathered from above or my earlier prediction, I think are pretty doomed. There's also odds of 2.1 available for them to beat France, though I haven't gone near that one as France could potentially gather a lot of jury support. It can also be fun to bet on matches that are rated quite close, and keep an eye on them throughout the voting - Greece vs Cyprus is always a good one (Greece are seen as the favourite here), or Armenia vs Azerbaijan. One head-to-head that stuck out to me was the 3.5 offered by Bet365 for Hungary to finish ahead of Romania. While I do think Romania is probably the victor here, those generous odds convinced me it was worth a punt.
Finally, there's always the occasional random bet out there, and this year bwin want to know if you think Loïc Nottet will score more points than Mariya Yaremchuk did last year, or if Polina Gagarina can get more points than Andras Kallay-Saunders amassed (spoiler: yes).
As always, oddschecker is your friend, and I hope you have a very enjoyable (and profitable) evening!
Thursday, 21 May 2015
Semi-final 2 betting guide: A chain of bets for you
Good afternoon everyone. I hope you had a successful and profitable semi-final on Tuesday; I just hope you didn't do what I did and pile more money on Denmark as their odds went out throughout the evening. Oops.
As always, oddschecker is your friend - I'm not listing which bookmakers are carrying the best odds today, as several of them are very even, and they'll continue to change throughout the day.
Unlike the first semi-final, the betting market has very much coalesced around ten qualifiers. It's unusual that all the fancied acts do qualify, so it's definitely worth taking a look at the qualification market to see if there's any money to be made. The one country that immediately stands out to me is Malta. They haven't failed to qualify since 2011, and in a semi-final that has Azerbaijan, Montenegro, San Marino and the Czech Republic voting, I'd be very reticent to write off their chances. Odds of 2.2 seems a decent bet for Amber to qualify, and this is one I've personally backed quite heavily. It's also one time I really won't be sad if I lose my money!
On the other hand, if you think the bookies have mainly got it right on the qualifiers, you could go in on some more safe bets, and try and make your returns with some larger bets at lower odds. 1.29 is available for Cyprus, which seems safe based on rehearsal reports, as does 1.36 on Israel, though both of these have come in considerably during rehearsals. Alternatively, you could just place all your money on Måns to qualify, and take the 1% interest rate that a 1.01 bet offers you.
With ten such solid qualifiers, the not to qualify market is an interesting one today. Of the ten considered most safe, Poland and Iceland are (perhaps rightly) seen to be closest to the cusp, and if you think they'll miss out on a ticket to the final the bookies will offer you 2.62 and 2.75 respectively. I personally still have my wonderings about Slovenia. For a song considered by many to be very contemporary, it's been met with bemusement and indifference from several of the non-fans I've encountered. If you're brave enough to think that Marjetka and Raay could be on the first flight back to Slovenia on Friday morning, odds of 7 will see you making a very tidy profit indeed.
As clear favourite for the contest itself, it's no surprise that Sweden's odds to win the semi-final tonight are very low, with 1.4 the best you'll be offered. Disappointingly, none of the regular bookmakers seem to be offering 'anyone other than Sweden' odds tonight, but if you're willing to get into laying on betfair (see sofabet's excellent guide for more details), lay odds of 1.38 on Sweden effectively translate to odds of 3.63 for Sweden not to win the semi-final.
Perhaps more interesting again is the top three market. With Sweden potentially sucking up a lot of votes, and the potential for fan favourites like Norway or Latvia to do less well than expected, this market is wide open. With an excellent draw and a compelling performance, Cyprus at 3.25 could be a very good bet here, or you can more than double your money with odds of 2.25 on Slovenia.
As I mentioned on Tuesday, if you have faith in a song and its winning chances, now is the time to place a bet for the final. Russia's odds came in dramatically following Polina's performance in the semi-final, and the same is likely to happen tonight. You can still get odds of 3 for Sweden to win the whole thing - if the performance is very strong tonight, and particularly if Heroes gets a good reaction on social media and iTunes following the show, those odds will tumble. On the other hand, if you really have faith in something that's still seen as a bit of an outsider, like Slovenia, consider taking the odds of 51 available now - if Europe really does love it tonight, they won't be there long.
Additionally, if you're keen on betting on the final and want to get in there first, you'll need to stay up late tonight. Once the halves have been drawn in the press conference, the producers will be getting to work on the running order. Last year they were pretty quick - and that moment in the early hours will be the first impression we'll get of how the final will really shape up. Expect the money to go flying thick and fast.
As always, oddschecker is your friend - I'm not listing which bookmakers are carrying the best odds today, as several of them are very even, and they'll continue to change throughout the day.
Unlike the first semi-final, the betting market has very much coalesced around ten qualifiers. It's unusual that all the fancied acts do qualify, so it's definitely worth taking a look at the qualification market to see if there's any money to be made. The one country that immediately stands out to me is Malta. They haven't failed to qualify since 2011, and in a semi-final that has Azerbaijan, Montenegro, San Marino and the Czech Republic voting, I'd be very reticent to write off their chances. Odds of 2.2 seems a decent bet for Amber to qualify, and this is one I've personally backed quite heavily. It's also one time I really won't be sad if I lose my money!
On the other hand, if you think the bookies have mainly got it right on the qualifiers, you could go in on some more safe bets, and try and make your returns with some larger bets at lower odds. 1.29 is available for Cyprus, which seems safe based on rehearsal reports, as does 1.36 on Israel, though both of these have come in considerably during rehearsals. Alternatively, you could just place all your money on Måns to qualify, and take the 1% interest rate that a 1.01 bet offers you.
With ten such solid qualifiers, the not to qualify market is an interesting one today. Of the ten considered most safe, Poland and Iceland are (perhaps rightly) seen to be closest to the cusp, and if you think they'll miss out on a ticket to the final the bookies will offer you 2.62 and 2.75 respectively. I personally still have my wonderings about Slovenia. For a song considered by many to be very contemporary, it's been met with bemusement and indifference from several of the non-fans I've encountered. If you're brave enough to think that Marjetka and Raay could be on the first flight back to Slovenia on Friday morning, odds of 7 will see you making a very tidy profit indeed.
As clear favourite for the contest itself, it's no surprise that Sweden's odds to win the semi-final tonight are very low, with 1.4 the best you'll be offered. Disappointingly, none of the regular bookmakers seem to be offering 'anyone other than Sweden' odds tonight, but if you're willing to get into laying on betfair (see sofabet's excellent guide for more details), lay odds of 1.38 on Sweden effectively translate to odds of 3.63 for Sweden not to win the semi-final.
Perhaps more interesting again is the top three market. With Sweden potentially sucking up a lot of votes, and the potential for fan favourites like Norway or Latvia to do less well than expected, this market is wide open. With an excellent draw and a compelling performance, Cyprus at 3.25 could be a very good bet here, or you can more than double your money with odds of 2.25 on Slovenia.
As I mentioned on Tuesday, if you have faith in a song and its winning chances, now is the time to place a bet for the final. Russia's odds came in dramatically following Polina's performance in the semi-final, and the same is likely to happen tonight. You can still get odds of 3 for Sweden to win the whole thing - if the performance is very strong tonight, and particularly if Heroes gets a good reaction on social media and iTunes following the show, those odds will tumble. On the other hand, if you really have faith in something that's still seen as a bit of an outsider, like Slovenia, consider taking the odds of 51 available now - if Europe really does love it tonight, they won't be there long.
Additionally, if you're keen on betting on the final and want to get in there first, you'll need to stay up late tonight. Once the halves have been drawn in the press conference, the producers will be getting to work on the running order. Last year they were pretty quick - and that moment in the early hours will be the first impression we'll get of how the final will really shape up. Expect the money to go flying thick and fast.
Tuesday, 19 May 2015
Semi-final 1 betting guide: Bets are like thunder*
Sure, you've made your predictions, but are you ready to put your money where you mouth is? Ahead of tonight's semi-final, I'm going to take a look at some of the betting odds available for various outcomes, and see if I can identify where the value is.
The odds I quote below are likely to change in the run up to tonight, so, as always, oddschecker is your friend.
Firstly, who will win the semi-final? There seems to be strong consensus from the press corps that it's between Estonia and Russia, with Russia nosing ahead quite considerably in recent days. If you're in agreement, the best odds you can get for Russia to win the semi is 1.83, at William Hill - this means that if you bet £10, you will get £18.30 back (i.e. £8.30 profit). On the other hand, if you feel Stig and Elina's duet will top Polina's big ballad, you can pick up odds of 4 at either William Hill or Boylesports.
With two such clear frontrunners, perhaps the more interesting money is available for a top 3 finish - i.e. who will come 3rd? 3rd place in the semi-final can often be something slightly surprising that then fails to score highly in the final, and therefore the front runners here (after Russia and Estonia) of Georgia (2.25, 888Sport), Greece (2.25, unibet) and Romania (3.5, bwin) would all seem worth a punt. Albania have fallen from grace during the rehearsals, and their odds of 3.75 (bwin) for a top three finish seem rather stingy. On the other hand, if you want to win some relatively safe money, you could opt to bet on Russia or Estonia to come top three. At odds of 1.18 and 1.4 respectively, you won't be making much, but if you're confident, it's effectively a very short-term-high-interest rate account!
Bear in mind of course that you won't see any of your winnings for winner/top three markets until the full results are published following the final. If you want a more immediate return, the place to look is the qualification market.
Most of the bookies are offering qualification odds, though there's considerably less value to be had than in previous years. Finland are one who have really fallen in recent weeks, and you can get odds of 2 (i.e. doubling your money) at Skybet or Ladbrokes if you think they'll make it through. I'd also argue that Denmark (1.91, Coral) could be worth a punt - they've often done rather better than fans expect, particularly in semi-finals. The biggest outsiders in the qualifier market are Netherlands (3.6, Boylesports) and Moldova (3, various sites). They're a risk, but as I wrote in my prediction piece, I do think there's a chance either of them could make it - and anyone who was brave enough to bet on San Marino or Iceland last year made a tidy profit.
On the other hand, if you're a negative person like me, there's fun to be had in the not to qualify market. I'm still quite sceptical about Armenia, and there are odds of 3.75 (at Skybet) if you feel that six people all shouting different songs at the top of their lungs won't engage with Europe's voters. And if you're not convinced Belgium is really connecting, Skybet will similarly give you 3.5 odds. And if you're crazy enough to think Russia might somehow fail to reach the final for the first time ever, Skybet will give you odds of 26 to throw your money away.
If you're serious about your betting, it's worth already thinking about the final. If there's a song you have your eye on tonight and you think you might want to take a punt on it making the final Top 10, Top 4 or even winning the whole thing, it's worth placing that bet now. After tonight you'll have a much better idea of its chances - but so will the rest of Europe. The people who won big on the Common Linnets and Conchita last year were those who were brave enough to place their bets before the semi-finals. I'll be taking a closer look at these markets closer to the final, but if you think that, for example, Georgia or Greece might be an outsider for the top ten, it could be worth getting on the betting sites now.
That's just a brief overview of what's available tonight - do have a browse on oddschecker, and do feel free to post any betting-related questions in the comments below and I'll do my best to answer them.
(* no, I know they're not, but then neither's time. Go complain to Belarus.)
The odds I quote below are likely to change in the run up to tonight, so, as always, oddschecker is your friend.
Firstly, who will win the semi-final? There seems to be strong consensus from the press corps that it's between Estonia and Russia, with Russia nosing ahead quite considerably in recent days. If you're in agreement, the best odds you can get for Russia to win the semi is 1.83, at William Hill - this means that if you bet £10, you will get £18.30 back (i.e. £8.30 profit). On the other hand, if you feel Stig and Elina's duet will top Polina's big ballad, you can pick up odds of 4 at either William Hill or Boylesports.
With two such clear frontrunners, perhaps the more interesting money is available for a top 3 finish - i.e. who will come 3rd? 3rd place in the semi-final can often be something slightly surprising that then fails to score highly in the final, and therefore the front runners here (after Russia and Estonia) of Georgia (2.25, 888Sport), Greece (2.25, unibet) and Romania (3.5, bwin) would all seem worth a punt. Albania have fallen from grace during the rehearsals, and their odds of 3.75 (bwin) for a top three finish seem rather stingy. On the other hand, if you want to win some relatively safe money, you could opt to bet on Russia or Estonia to come top three. At odds of 1.18 and 1.4 respectively, you won't be making much, but if you're confident, it's effectively a very short-term-high-interest rate account!
Bear in mind of course that you won't see any of your winnings for winner/top three markets until the full results are published following the final. If you want a more immediate return, the place to look is the qualification market.
Most of the bookies are offering qualification odds, though there's considerably less value to be had than in previous years. Finland are one who have really fallen in recent weeks, and you can get odds of 2 (i.e. doubling your money) at Skybet or Ladbrokes if you think they'll make it through. I'd also argue that Denmark (1.91, Coral) could be worth a punt - they've often done rather better than fans expect, particularly in semi-finals. The biggest outsiders in the qualifier market are Netherlands (3.6, Boylesports) and Moldova (3, various sites). They're a risk, but as I wrote in my prediction piece, I do think there's a chance either of them could make it - and anyone who was brave enough to bet on San Marino or Iceland last year made a tidy profit.
On the other hand, if you're a negative person like me, there's fun to be had in the not to qualify market. I'm still quite sceptical about Armenia, and there are odds of 3.75 (at Skybet) if you feel that six people all shouting different songs at the top of their lungs won't engage with Europe's voters. And if you're not convinced Belgium is really connecting, Skybet will similarly give you 3.5 odds. And if you're crazy enough to think Russia might somehow fail to reach the final for the first time ever, Skybet will give you odds of 26 to throw your money away.
If you're serious about your betting, it's worth already thinking about the final. If there's a song you have your eye on tonight and you think you might want to take a punt on it making the final Top 10, Top 4 or even winning the whole thing, it's worth placing that bet now. After tonight you'll have a much better idea of its chances - but so will the rest of Europe. The people who won big on the Common Linnets and Conchita last year were those who were brave enough to place their bets before the semi-finals. I'll be taking a closer look at these markets closer to the final, but if you think that, for example, Georgia or Greece might be an outsider for the top ten, it could be worth getting on the betting sites now.
That's just a brief overview of what's available tonight - do have a browse on oddschecker, and do feel free to post any betting-related questions in the comments below and I'll do my best to answer them.
(* no, I know they're not, but then neither's time. Go complain to Belarus.)
Tuesday, 6 May 2014
Predicticación
Are we all ready? I think I am! Despite having been far away from the interwebz for the last few days (I feel all naked! Though that might just be my swimming trunks), I'm getting into the mood, and even have managed to work out a little preditction for tonight. I've also put on some tiny bets that go against my actual guess, so who knows, really... Bets are on Ukraine and Belgium not to qualify, but in the list below, Moldova really is the one I'm doubting.
And as if giving you ten qualifiers wasn't enough potential for wrongness, here's how I think the full result will be tonight:
Sweden
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Hungary
Netherlands
Montenegro
Ukraine
Russia
Belgium
Moldova
Estonia
San Marino
Portugal
Iceland
Latvia
Albania
Have a ball tonight, no matter what! :-)
And as if giving you ten qualifiers wasn't enough potential for wrongness, here's how I think the full result will be tonight:
Sweden
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Hungary
Netherlands
Montenegro
Ukraine
Russia
Belgium
Moldova
Have a ball tonight, no matter what! :-)
Saturday, 18 May 2013
ESC final: Where's the value?
If you've been following our betting guides to the Eurovision semi-finals this week, you'll know that it's been more than possible to make some easy money by predicting what's really going to happen, rather than what fans think will happen (hello San Marino!). However, there are always some surprises on the way, too - Israel's non-qualification will have stung the pockets of a lot of punters, for example. So where's the value in the betting market for tonight's grand final?
Firstly, because most normal people equate "ESC" to the Saturday night show, it's worth pointing out that there's far more money in the markets today - and far more interesting sub-markets for us to look at. Let's start with the winner market, though, since that's where most regular punters tend to focus. To say that Denmark is the hot favourite to win would be a huge understatement. The best available price for Emmelie de Forest's song is 1.79 - that's less than evens in fractional terms. The problem is that most of us who don't think she's a guaranteed winner are none the wiser as to who will win. Norway are currently the second-favourite at 7, while Ukraine have drifted to between 9 and 17.5, depending on who you look at. Useful outsiders, particularly for an each-way bet, could include Germany or Italy (both available for 41) - or, if you think the world is going to go very strange tonight and fall for the elusive charms of Cezar, you can grab Romania for a tasty 101.
The next port of call is the top 4 and top 10 markets. Denmark is basically a write-off in the top 4 market (a best price of 1.12 offers no value at all), so you might want to look at the likes of the late-drawn Greece (4.5), Georgia (5.56) or Italy (5.5) for a better bet. The top 10 market is more potentially rewarding - if all the votes really are concentrated around the likes of Denmark, that opens up the possibility for some surprise countries sneaking into the upper echelons of the scoreboard. A price of 3.1 says that semi-final favourite Ireland will be among them, for example, while the male power vocals (in very different ways!) of Romania and Iceland are both priced at 4.5. Alternatively, if you think a soft and pleasant song like Estonia - effectively alone in its field - could capture enough jury attention to be catapulted into the top 10, that one's available for a very tasty 11.
As Eurovision fans, of course, we're almost as interested in what happens at the other end of the scoreboard. In the last place market, poor old Spain are the clear favourites - a mere 3 is available for them to finish last, and the odds are shortening all the time. Other candidates include Belarus and Lithuania at 11; both countries would seem to have enough allies to score 20-odd points, but that was almost enough for last place in 2011, so if the votes are widely spread then they could still get tangled up at the bottom of the table. Thinking of the light and airy sounds of Switzerland 2011, actually, I'm wondering if Malta at 21 mightn't be a bad outsider for last place - but then I also suspected Gianluca wouldn't qualify, so what do I know?
In the final, there are also regional markets to look at - although some are bigger than others, e.g. following the Balkan collapse in the semi-finals that's left us with just Romania and Greece to choose from! If you suspect Norway will come out as the top Nordic country but you don't want to pin yourself down to a bet on their absolute placing, for example, a price of 4.75 is available at sites such as Ladbrokes and Bwin. (The real outsider in this group is Iceland, coming in at a whopping 41.) Meanwhile, in what's being called the "Western Europe" category - consisting of the Netherlands, Ireland, France, the United Kingdom and Belgium - you can still get a quite decent 2.44 if you think Hologrammatic Anouk will beat off the aforementioned competition. Seems quite feasible - the only one I can realistically see challenging her is Ireland (3.5), although if the Bonnie Tyler fanbase turns out in force, 7 might end up seeming like a quite acceptable price.
While we're on the subject of Bonnie, there's the top big 5 market. Italy leads the way here at a best price of 1.91, and with a late draw and all those Balkan votes floating around, it's hard to disagree with that. However, Germany's Cascada is a big name, and 3.75 for Natalie's dance beats to come out on top is quite an attractive proposition too.
As on Tuesday and Thursday, we finish with the many head-to-heads that are on offer. 2.62 for Greece to beat Azerbaijan seems like an interesting one - and I'm certainly tempted by the 2.1 that's available for Iceland to beat Finland, especially now we've seen their respective positions in the running order. Meanwhile, if you think Ireland's position in the running order is hugely advantageous to them, you can get 2.4 for Ryan Dolan to finish ahead of Anouk from the Netherlands.
You can use the wonderful Oddschecker to investigate all of these markets and more for yourself. And whatever you bet on, I hope you have a great time tonight and end up happier, richer, or ideally both!
Firstly, because most normal people equate "ESC" to the Saturday night show, it's worth pointing out that there's far more money in the markets today - and far more interesting sub-markets for us to look at. Let's start with the winner market, though, since that's where most regular punters tend to focus. To say that Denmark is the hot favourite to win would be a huge understatement. The best available price for Emmelie de Forest's song is 1.79 - that's less than evens in fractional terms. The problem is that most of us who don't think she's a guaranteed winner are none the wiser as to who will win. Norway are currently the second-favourite at 7, while Ukraine have drifted to between 9 and 17.5, depending on who you look at. Useful outsiders, particularly for an each-way bet, could include Germany or Italy (both available for 41) - or, if you think the world is going to go very strange tonight and fall for the elusive charms of Cezar, you can grab Romania for a tasty 101.
The next port of call is the top 4 and top 10 markets. Denmark is basically a write-off in the top 4 market (a best price of 1.12 offers no value at all), so you might want to look at the likes of the late-drawn Greece (4.5), Georgia (5.56) or Italy (5.5) for a better bet. The top 10 market is more potentially rewarding - if all the votes really are concentrated around the likes of Denmark, that opens up the possibility for some surprise countries sneaking into the upper echelons of the scoreboard. A price of 3.1 says that semi-final favourite Ireland will be among them, for example, while the male power vocals (in very different ways!) of Romania and Iceland are both priced at 4.5. Alternatively, if you think a soft and pleasant song like Estonia - effectively alone in its field - could capture enough jury attention to be catapulted into the top 10, that one's available for a very tasty 11.
As Eurovision fans, of course, we're almost as interested in what happens at the other end of the scoreboard. In the last place market, poor old Spain are the clear favourites - a mere 3 is available for them to finish last, and the odds are shortening all the time. Other candidates include Belarus and Lithuania at 11; both countries would seem to have enough allies to score 20-odd points, but that was almost enough for last place in 2011, so if the votes are widely spread then they could still get tangled up at the bottom of the table. Thinking of the light and airy sounds of Switzerland 2011, actually, I'm wondering if Malta at 21 mightn't be a bad outsider for last place - but then I also suspected Gianluca wouldn't qualify, so what do I know?
In the final, there are also regional markets to look at - although some are bigger than others, e.g. following the Balkan collapse in the semi-finals that's left us with just Romania and Greece to choose from! If you suspect Norway will come out as the top Nordic country but you don't want to pin yourself down to a bet on their absolute placing, for example, a price of 4.75 is available at sites such as Ladbrokes and Bwin. (The real outsider in this group is Iceland, coming in at a whopping 41.) Meanwhile, in what's being called the "Western Europe" category - consisting of the Netherlands, Ireland, France, the United Kingdom and Belgium - you can still get a quite decent 2.44 if you think Hologrammatic Anouk will beat off the aforementioned competition. Seems quite feasible - the only one I can realistically see challenging her is Ireland (3.5), although if the Bonnie Tyler fanbase turns out in force, 7 might end up seeming like a quite acceptable price.
While we're on the subject of Bonnie, there's the top big 5 market. Italy leads the way here at a best price of 1.91, and with a late draw and all those Balkan votes floating around, it's hard to disagree with that. However, Germany's Cascada is a big name, and 3.75 for Natalie's dance beats to come out on top is quite an attractive proposition too.
As on Tuesday and Thursday, we finish with the many head-to-heads that are on offer. 2.62 for Greece to beat Azerbaijan seems like an interesting one - and I'm certainly tempted by the 2.1 that's available for Iceland to beat Finland, especially now we've seen their respective positions in the running order. Meanwhile, if you think Ireland's position in the running order is hugely advantageous to them, you can get 2.4 for Ryan Dolan to finish ahead of Anouk from the Netherlands.
You can use the wonderful Oddschecker to investigate all of these markets and more for yourself. And whatever you bet on, I hope you have a great time tonight and end up happier, richer, or ideally both!
Thursday, 16 May 2013
Semi-final 2: Where's the value?
Tuesday was an interesting night for those who like to gamble on the Eurovision Song Contest, with a few surprises, at least statistically: the Netherlands qualifying for the first time since 2004, plus a blanket failure by the ex-Yugoslav nations, with none of Slovenia, Montenegro, Croatia or Serbia making it to the Saturday night show.
So where's the value in the betting markets for tonight's second semi-final? In theory, it should be a much less predictable affair, with an interesting mix of voting countries and musical styles to choose from. Despite this, the qualification market shows a clearer picture at the top of the scoreboard: the available prices for Norway (1.02), Georgia (1.04), Azerbaijan (1.05) and Greece (1.07) suggest that there are four very clear favourites to reach the grand final, and it's hard to argue with that. Interestingly, next in line is Malta at 1.36, followed by Israel and fan fave San Marino at 1.4.
At the other end of the market, Latvia (5.5) and Macedonia (5) are the clear outsiders, but again, it's difficult to find too many counterarguments there. More interesting are the prices for the hipster-friendly Hungary (3.8), Switzerland with its potentially huge Salvation Army televote (2.95) or even perpetual qualifier Romania (2.55), whose singer Cezar is unquestionably ridiculous but is blessed with an optimal draw, closing the semi-final with the bombastic and spectacular "It's My Life" (even if it's spectacular for all the wrong reasons). Any of these bets could represent good value - though I'm most tempted by the 2 that's available for Bulgaria, represented by the experienced Elitsa & Stoyan in a semi-final that's full of potentially friendly countries.
On the non-qualification side, if you don't buy into the Valentina Monetta hype, you can still find a healthy 3.2 if you believe that San Marino will fail to make it to the final. Finland's "Marry Me" is a hugely western-friendly song and performance, and 3.25 says that the rest of Europe will turn its back to a sufficient extent. But I'm perhaps most drawn to the 3.4 that's available for Malta to fail to qualify - Gianluca hasn't been hugely impressive in rehearsals and I'm not convinced that the friendly and cheerful vibe of the song comes across well enough on stage.
While the markets are convinced that there are four clear qualifiers, there's less of a consensus when it comes to the winner of the second semi-final. Norway is currently leading the way at 2.8, with Georgia next in line (4.32). For me, however, a Thursday night audience with this voting demographic could easily vote in numbers for Koza Mostra from Greece, and a price of 10 for them to win the semi-final seems well worth a look. Alternatively, if you want a real punt, Latvia is available for a mere 228. Anybody...?
The top 3 finish market opens up some interesting possibilities, although (as with the winner market) bets won't be settled until after the full results are revealed, presumably in the early hours of Sunday morning. Here, Greece is still decent value at 2.12, but I'd be looking at some interesting outsiders instead. For example, Israel is the only song in the "dramatic female ballad" genre tonight (unless you count the first two minutes of San Marino), so it could easily suck up a lot of jury votes. If you think that's enough for them to reach the podium positions, a price of 9 is currently available. Similarly, the Icelandic ballad could cut through the field and take points from everywhere - a quite generous 13 can be found for Eythor and "Ég á líf". Alternatively, you could play it ultra-safe and take the 1.66 that's available for Georgia to finish in the top 3 - surely a banker?
Finally, let's take a look at the head-to-heads that are available from Bwin this time. Most interesting to me is San Marino vs. Israel, where Israel is seen as the outsider at a price of 1.95! I find it hard to conceive of a situation where Moran Mazor is outscored by Valentina Monetta, so that's a very tempting bet. By contrast, the San Marino vs. Greece match-up has Greece as the favourites, but 1.50 is still a very welcoming price for the more committed gambler. And if I'm tipping Greece as the semi-final winner, I suppose I have to highlight the 2.40 that's available if you think Koza Mostra will finish higher than Georgia's Sophie & Nodi.
Those are just a few of the options available to you if you feel like having a little flutter on tonight's proceedings, anyway. Whatever you do and however much you decide to bet, have a great evening!
So where's the value in the betting markets for tonight's second semi-final? In theory, it should be a much less predictable affair, with an interesting mix of voting countries and musical styles to choose from. Despite this, the qualification market shows a clearer picture at the top of the scoreboard: the available prices for Norway (1.02), Georgia (1.04), Azerbaijan (1.05) and Greece (1.07) suggest that there are four very clear favourites to reach the grand final, and it's hard to argue with that. Interestingly, next in line is Malta at 1.36, followed by Israel and fan fave San Marino at 1.4.
At the other end of the market, Latvia (5.5) and Macedonia (5) are the clear outsiders, but again, it's difficult to find too many counterarguments there. More interesting are the prices for the hipster-friendly Hungary (3.8), Switzerland with its potentially huge Salvation Army televote (2.95) or even perpetual qualifier Romania (2.55), whose singer Cezar is unquestionably ridiculous but is blessed with an optimal draw, closing the semi-final with the bombastic and spectacular "It's My Life" (even if it's spectacular for all the wrong reasons). Any of these bets could represent good value - though I'm most tempted by the 2 that's available for Bulgaria, represented by the experienced Elitsa & Stoyan in a semi-final that's full of potentially friendly countries.
On the non-qualification side, if you don't buy into the Valentina Monetta hype, you can still find a healthy 3.2 if you believe that San Marino will fail to make it to the final. Finland's "Marry Me" is a hugely western-friendly song and performance, and 3.25 says that the rest of Europe will turn its back to a sufficient extent. But I'm perhaps most drawn to the 3.4 that's available for Malta to fail to qualify - Gianluca hasn't been hugely impressive in rehearsals and I'm not convinced that the friendly and cheerful vibe of the song comes across well enough on stage.
While the markets are convinced that there are four clear qualifiers, there's less of a consensus when it comes to the winner of the second semi-final. Norway is currently leading the way at 2.8, with Georgia next in line (4.32). For me, however, a Thursday night audience with this voting demographic could easily vote in numbers for Koza Mostra from Greece, and a price of 10 for them to win the semi-final seems well worth a look. Alternatively, if you want a real punt, Latvia is available for a mere 228. Anybody...?
The top 3 finish market opens up some interesting possibilities, although (as with the winner market) bets won't be settled until after the full results are revealed, presumably in the early hours of Sunday morning. Here, Greece is still decent value at 2.12, but I'd be looking at some interesting outsiders instead. For example, Israel is the only song in the "dramatic female ballad" genre tonight (unless you count the first two minutes of San Marino), so it could easily suck up a lot of jury votes. If you think that's enough for them to reach the podium positions, a price of 9 is currently available. Similarly, the Icelandic ballad could cut through the field and take points from everywhere - a quite generous 13 can be found for Eythor and "Ég á líf". Alternatively, you could play it ultra-safe and take the 1.66 that's available for Georgia to finish in the top 3 - surely a banker?
Finally, let's take a look at the head-to-heads that are available from Bwin this time. Most interesting to me is San Marino vs. Israel, where Israel is seen as the outsider at a price of 1.95! I find it hard to conceive of a situation where Moran Mazor is outscored by Valentina Monetta, so that's a very tempting bet. By contrast, the San Marino vs. Greece match-up has Greece as the favourites, but 1.50 is still a very welcoming price for the more committed gambler. And if I'm tipping Greece as the semi-final winner, I suppose I have to highlight the 2.40 that's available if you think Koza Mostra will finish higher than Georgia's Sophie & Nodi.
Those are just a few of the options available to you if you feel like having a little flutter on tonight's proceedings, anyway. Whatever you do and however much you decide to bet, have a great evening!
Tuesday, 14 May 2013
Semi-final 1: Where's the value?
Betting on the Eurovision Song Contest has become big business, with literally dozens of online bookmakers (and their high street equivalents, if you happen to live in the UK or Ireland in particular) offering odds not only on the grand final, but also on the most obscure and specific of "markets" - from which Balkan country will finish the highest, to whether Israel will beat San Marino in the second semi-final.
Even with excellent sites like Oddschecker at hand to help, it can be difficult to get an overview of what's available in terms of interesting prices and opportunities to make a few euros. So let's kick off this series of three articles by taking a look at the odds for tonight's first semi-final - with a particular view to the insights that have emerged from the rehearsals that have taken place in Malmö over the last week or so.
(NB. In a break from tradition, I'll be using decimal odds throughout this piece, since they're becoming increasingly commonplace even in the change-resistant UK!)
The logical place to start for most people is the "to qualify/fail to qualify" market. Things are complicated this year by the fact that 10 of the 16 songs will make it through, meaning that the odds on qualification for the big favourites are particularly measly - Denmark, Russia and Ukraine will net you a mere 1.02, 1.02 and 1.06 respectively. At the other end, the least-fancied qualifiers are currently Cyprus and Slovenia at 3.75 and 4.3. In terms of movement during the week, Moldova has impressed a lot of punters and is now seen as a near-certain qualifier, priced at 1.2, while Belgium - previously the rank outsider - has moved in to a shorter but still tempting 3.25 following a solid set of rehearsals.
These low prices mean that the real value is to be found in the non-qualification market. For example, Anouk from the Netherlands has delivered a set of low-key, uncommercial rehearsals. If you think she'll fail to connect with the juries and the televoters to a sufficient extent, you can get 4.5 for the Dutch to stay in the semi-finals yet again. Belarus and Croatia can both be found at 3.25 in the non-qualification market - and I'd personally be surprised if there's room for both of them in the final - while if you think Moje 3's outfits will be enough to put off all but the most ex-Yugoslav of ex-Yugoslav voters, they're at 6.5.
Those aren't the only available options, though. You can also bet on the winner of the semi-final - though bear in mind that, even if successful, you won't get your money until after the full semi results are revealed following Saturday's grand final. Denmark is currently the hot favourite at 2.5, and it's hard to argue with that, though semi-finals often throw up unusual discrepancies in this respect - Kalomira beating Dima Bilan in 2008, for example - because the base of countries voting is so different to in the final. Russia (4.5) and Ukraine (5) could be worth a look for precisely this reason - whereas, at the other end of the market, Betfair will give you a whopping 249 if you think Despina Olympiou will walk away with the crown tonight. (OK, OK, I'll try to stay within the realms of possibility here!)
One particularly interesting avenue is the "top 3 finish" market. Bear in mind, again, that songs can often do extremely well in a smaller semi-final then underperform (comparatively) in the final. Recent top 3 finishers in the semis include Donny Montell in 2012, Maja Keuc and Paradise Oskar in 2011, Hera Björk in 2010, Simon Mathew in 2008... you get the idea!
So where might the value be this time? Ireland and Moldova have gained a lot of momentum in the press centre over recent days, and you could easily see either of them sneaking onto the podium tonight. Ryan Dolan can currently be grabbed at 8.0, while Aliona Moon is priced at 5.5 - both quite tempting, I'd say. Among the more predictable contenders, Russia at 1.58 seems like a particularly decent option if you're the kind of person who treats betting less as an opportunity for big rewards and more as a way of getting a return on your money that's better than what a savings account can offer! And even Denmark at 1.22 appears more than fair, since a finish of 4th or worse for Emmelie seems highly improbable even if she doesn't ultimately live up to her favourite status in the grand final.
Finally, a small number of bookmakers are offering head-to-head markets for tonight's show, most notably Bwin. In terms of achieving balance, it can certainly be good to bet on a relative placing that's unconnected to the absolute placing of the song in question. Bwin will currently give you 3.55 if you think the Netherlands will beat Russia, or a particularly tempting 2.2 if you think Anouk will get the better of the Moje 3 girls - something that could easily happen if she eats up the jury votes. Meanwhile, a similar 2.1 is available if you think Zlata and her giant will come out ahead of the earnestness of Russia's Dina Garipova.
Those are just a few of the options available to you if you feel like having a little flutter on tonight's proceedings, anyway. Whatever you do and however much you decide to bet, have a great evening!
Even with excellent sites like Oddschecker at hand to help, it can be difficult to get an overview of what's available in terms of interesting prices and opportunities to make a few euros. So let's kick off this series of three articles by taking a look at the odds for tonight's first semi-final - with a particular view to the insights that have emerged from the rehearsals that have taken place in Malmö over the last week or so.
(NB. In a break from tradition, I'll be using decimal odds throughout this piece, since they're becoming increasingly commonplace even in the change-resistant UK!)
The logical place to start for most people is the "to qualify/fail to qualify" market. Things are complicated this year by the fact that 10 of the 16 songs will make it through, meaning that the odds on qualification for the big favourites are particularly measly - Denmark, Russia and Ukraine will net you a mere 1.02, 1.02 and 1.06 respectively. At the other end, the least-fancied qualifiers are currently Cyprus and Slovenia at 3.75 and 4.3. In terms of movement during the week, Moldova has impressed a lot of punters and is now seen as a near-certain qualifier, priced at 1.2, while Belgium - previously the rank outsider - has moved in to a shorter but still tempting 3.25 following a solid set of rehearsals.
These low prices mean that the real value is to be found in the non-qualification market. For example, Anouk from the Netherlands has delivered a set of low-key, uncommercial rehearsals. If you think she'll fail to connect with the juries and the televoters to a sufficient extent, you can get 4.5 for the Dutch to stay in the semi-finals yet again. Belarus and Croatia can both be found at 3.25 in the non-qualification market - and I'd personally be surprised if there's room for both of them in the final - while if you think Moje 3's outfits will be enough to put off all but the most ex-Yugoslav of ex-Yugoslav voters, they're at 6.5.
Those aren't the only available options, though. You can also bet on the winner of the semi-final - though bear in mind that, even if successful, you won't get your money until after the full semi results are revealed following Saturday's grand final. Denmark is currently the hot favourite at 2.5, and it's hard to argue with that, though semi-finals often throw up unusual discrepancies in this respect - Kalomira beating Dima Bilan in 2008, for example - because the base of countries voting is so different to in the final. Russia (4.5) and Ukraine (5) could be worth a look for precisely this reason - whereas, at the other end of the market, Betfair will give you a whopping 249 if you think Despina Olympiou will walk away with the crown tonight. (OK, OK, I'll try to stay within the realms of possibility here!)
One particularly interesting avenue is the "top 3 finish" market. Bear in mind, again, that songs can often do extremely well in a smaller semi-final then underperform (comparatively) in the final. Recent top 3 finishers in the semis include Donny Montell in 2012, Maja Keuc and Paradise Oskar in 2011, Hera Björk in 2010, Simon Mathew in 2008... you get the idea!
So where might the value be this time? Ireland and Moldova have gained a lot of momentum in the press centre over recent days, and you could easily see either of them sneaking onto the podium tonight. Ryan Dolan can currently be grabbed at 8.0, while Aliona Moon is priced at 5.5 - both quite tempting, I'd say. Among the more predictable contenders, Russia at 1.58 seems like a particularly decent option if you're the kind of person who treats betting less as an opportunity for big rewards and more as a way of getting a return on your money that's better than what a savings account can offer! And even Denmark at 1.22 appears more than fair, since a finish of 4th or worse for Emmelie seems highly improbable even if she doesn't ultimately live up to her favourite status in the grand final.
Finally, a small number of bookmakers are offering head-to-head markets for tonight's show, most notably Bwin. In terms of achieving balance, it can certainly be good to bet on a relative placing that's unconnected to the absolute placing of the song in question. Bwin will currently give you 3.55 if you think the Netherlands will beat Russia, or a particularly tempting 2.2 if you think Anouk will get the better of the Moje 3 girls - something that could easily happen if she eats up the jury votes. Meanwhile, a similar 2.1 is available if you think Zlata and her giant will come out ahead of the earnestness of Russia's Dina Garipova.
Those are just a few of the options available to you if you feel like having a little flutter on tonight's proceedings, anyway. Whatever you do and however much you decide to bet, have a great evening!
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)