Thursday 8 May 2014

Miracle if it qualifies?

It seems like many of us here has managed 8/10 from last Tuesday's show and we seem to be unanimous in thinking tonight is even a greater task to handle. Having spent so much time in Eurovision central I have had many changes of opinion and if trying to form realistic opinions on the dress rehearsal wasn't strenuous enough, this definitely beats it!

This semi-final is quite a mind-puzzler. My main issue is that even though Romania is seen as a known qualifier, it has happened before that perennial qualifiers fell. This happened to two nations in the year 2011 when both Turkey and Armenia failed to qualify in Düsseldorf. No one had thought this possible but there it was! Could this be the year Romania gets punished for sending a mediocre-at-best performance which seems to be stuck together by every gimmick you could think of and just shoved on a stage with a deer-in-headlights looking lead? On the other hand, do I take the risk and miss out on them qualifying even though my head says it must?

So, since this must be done and time is of the essence, here is my haphazard guess and how I believe Europe will be persuaded tonight:

Malta
Israel
Norway
Poland
Austria
Lithuania - they have UK, Ireland, Poland and Georgia in their semi, they must make it.
Finland
Belarus
Greece
Slovenia

And there you have it, doomed them again I have! Such a hard semi to predict. I have thought of every-possible country qualifying and also of them not. Norway was my last entry since I see this as possibly failing but then again I think it will be saved. Televoting lovelies like Poland and Lithuania should find their flag shown at the end of the show. I still am doubtful of Romania but need to stick to my instinct and even though I most probably am wrong, I don't know which of the 10 up there to remove in order to accommodate it. Switzerland is also a candidate, maybe it and Belarus or it and Norway will switch places... Now enough! Stop typing and start getting ready!

Well, it's semi 2 day people.

I did see the dressed rehearsal from the press centre yesterday so I haven't been out to Eurovision island at all today. Been moving instead. Out of the lovely apartment and into Grand Hotel Copenhagen (wich, to be honest isn't that Grand) and I am staying put here for the rest of the week. Well, almost for the rest of the week. Some excursions out to the arena will happen, I'm sure. Just done with moving for the week.
After the rehearsal yesterday (we actually just stayed for the songs and left in a hurry just after to avoid the stampeed of craziness that comence immediatelly after the show) we got on a bus (9A, 9A, 9A) back to the city where we ended up at the Pan-European party. Several of the European acts joined forces to give Euroclub some extra oomph. When we walked in the door Germany was playing something reeeeaaalllllyyyy slow and at the end of the song Elaiza stood up and roared: are you ready to paaaaarrrrtttyyyyy?? Needless to say after that slow stopper, not many roared back. Aram was up next but since the stagechange took forever I went for a beer and a smoke and when I finally got back inside it was in the middle of Not Alone and he sure as hell wasn't! Floor was packed so I decided to watch from the balcony instead.

For tonights entertainment we are going to the semi and again I may scream so much my voice will be f****d tomorrow morning when I am due to report back via phone to my radiostation. Oh joy!

If all goes well tonight (and I sure hope it does) we will probably not be at Euroclub early or even at all, depending on if and when my booboo claws his way free of reporters.

But for now, I am so gonna lay down on my lovely hotelbed and just relax for a bit.

Laterzzzz

"Six hours to bet!" - A betting overview of Semi 2

Welcome to the Gran Canaria mobile press centre and ESC Nation's betting overview for the second semi-final of ESC 2014! As ever, the odds in this article are based on the Oddschecker summary and can (and probably will) change radically as the day progresses.

So what did we learn on Tuesday night from a gambler's point of view? Probably not too much, really. We were reminded that favoured songs can fall at the first hurdle - the local "reality TV-lite" story behind the Belgian entry didn't transfer to the international stage, and the usually reliable voting performance of Moldova failed to repeat itself even in a small field. Meanwhile, two of the bookies' outsiders - Iceland and, even more sensationally, San Marino - will be making a repeat appearance on Saturday night, and have made a handful of people a little richer in the process!

The second heat is, of course, even smaller; only five of the competing entries will be heading home again tonight. Despite this, the to qualify market is confident that there are two big outsiders: you can get odds of 4.00 for Tijana from Macedonia to reach the final, while a price of 6.00 is available for "Three Minutes To Earth" from Georgia. In concrete terms, this means that if you place a bet of €10.00 on Georgia to qualify and your bet is successful, you will receive €60.00 in return.

But let's be honest, only an idiot would consider that to be a likely outcome.

The borderline cases are where the real interest is here. With two supposed no-hopers in the line-up, you might not actually need many points to qualify. As such, there could be value in backing regular qualifiers Lithuania (2.1) with their basis of reliable friendly points, or even Belarus, which can be grabbed for a surprisingly generous best price of 2.00.

Of course, you could play ultra-safe and pile the pounds on Greece (1.05), Romania (1.06) or Norway (1.05), who seem to be all but guaranteed qualifiers according to the markets. Bear in mind, though, that you would need to place a successful bet of €100.00 on Greece just to return a profit of €5.00 - barely enough for an ouzo or two.

Being such a small semi-final means the rewards for bets on non-qualification are even greater. For example, Carl Espen from Norway has impressed few people during rehearsals, and best odds of 13.00 are available if you think this early-season favourite will stumble. Other tempting prices can be found for the potentially divisive Conchita Wurst from Austria (8.00), the dangerously middle-of-the-road Ireland (2.75) and the boobtastic but unmelodic entry from Poland (also 2.75). And surely Slovenia, even with a favourable late position in the running order, must be worth a sniff at 1.91 to fail to qualify.

The winner and top 3 markets for this semi are particularly interesting because some of the more favoured songs, e.g. Israel and Norway, have potentially unfavourable early positions in the running order. Don't forget that a semi-final podium finish doesn't necessarily mean a thing when it comes to the final: the example I tend to use is 2011, when Paradise Oskar from Finland and Maja Keuc from Slovenia landed in the top 3 of their respective semi-finals, only to do relatively little on the Saturday night scoreboard.

With that in mind, you can get inviting odds of 2.5 for Israel's Mei Finegold to finish in the top 3 tonight, or 2.65 for the crowd-pleasing Maltese entry. Alternatively, you can bet on the semi winner: even with juries in play, a best available price of 5.00 for Greece seems quite tempting, as does 5.5 for Romania. Or perhaps the fanboys will have it right after all and Israel will take the semi 2 trophy even from an early spot in the draw: 13.00 says that this will be the case.

At the other end of the scale, poor Tijana from Macedonia props up the field: an unlikely victory for the ex-Yugoslav nation in tonight's semi-final comes at odds of 151! She isn't the favourite to finish last in the semi, though: only Betfair offers odds on that particular market, with Georgia considered the most likely candidate at 2.29.

I wanted to finish this blog post with a look at some head-to-heads, but Bwin doesn't have any for tonight's semi. How rude! They have plenty for the final, though, and we'll be taking a closer look at those in Saturday's final betting post. But let's take one step at a time...

So for now, that completes our brief analysis of some of the bets available to you for tonight's show - you can see more at the aforementioned Oddschecker link. Wherever you place your money, may the odds be ever in your favour - and have a great time!

Predicticación, part DOS

It's time to predict again! My Tuesday morning blog resulted in eight correct qualifiers, and even though I changed my mind on some while watching (putting Iceland and Portugal through, shoving out Ukraine and Moldova), I still was stuck on eight. Maybe that's the max I can physically do? :-o

Statistically, tonight's semi should be easier to predict, being the smallest Eurovision event for 44 years (apart from The Dida Drăgan Show in Ljubljana in 1993), but I'm far less confident about my guesses here than I was two days ago... About 9 of the entries feel like they should end about 8th to 11th, somehow. And that's clearly not going to happen, is it? As if finding ten qualifiers wasn't hard enough, I can't for the life of me find anything that could actually win this semi - or end top 3, for that matter... In lack of something better, I'll just go with someone we know are capable of winning Eurovision semis, the Greeks, with a close to random guess about the rest of the result:

Greece
Romania
Israel
Malta
Austria
Norway
Finland
Slovenia
Ireland
Poland

Belarus
Switzerland
Lithuania
Georgia
Macedonia

Semi-final 2 predictions

It's harder to predict when you're not seeing any rehearsal videos, and have to go on impressions from fellow bloggers. As it was, I scored 8/10 on Tuesday - and a different 8/10 after watching the show!

Semi 2 is a little easier, not least because the fewest you can possibly get right is five, but also because there's a couple of real no-hopers and a couple of obvious perennial qualifiers. Romania and Greece are obviously sailing through, and Macedonia and Georgia are perhaps equally hopeless at the bottom.

Until this week, I'd always had Poland as a certain non-qualifier. It's getting almost universally positive reviews from bloggers, but my instinct is still that the song doesn't have strong appeal to a wide range of Thursday night televoter - particularly with the first half of the song in Polish.

At the other end of the scale, I'd put in Malta, Austria and Finland as likely qualifiers, which leaves a huge swathe in the middle. Norway really should, but I'm worried for it. Israel the same - both are good, but have the potential to not quite 'catch' with the voting public. Switzerland I've always counted out, but everything seems to be going right for it in rehearsals. Belarus on the other hand is right near the bottom of some of the betting markets, but I've always assumed it's a safe qualifier...

So, hmm... let's try a prediction.

1. Romania
2. Greece
3. Malta
4. Austria
5. Finland
6. Belarus
7. Switzerland
8. Israel
9. Norway
10. Lithuania

11. Slovenia
12. Poland
13. Ireland
14. Georgia
15. Macedonia


I'm not sure of this at all! What do you think?

Oh my *actual* word! We really *are* like the Delphi Oracle! Not.

After our obviously* successful foray into the world of "accidental oracle-ing" in the bloodbath that was known as semi 1, we decided to throw caution in the wind to once again come out boasting that the opinions of the ESC Nation TV preview panel are pretty much the pulse of tele voting Europe. So here's what they thought of the semi final 2 songs:



* This post was pre-written on Monday 5th of May.

Semi 2 Jury Rehearsal - impressions, predictions, and what to expect tonight

I attended last night's Jury Rehearsal with a few friends and despite some complaints and issues I read from others regarding the logistics and difficulties getting in, it was all very orderly and efficient. Yes, there's the annoying issue of slogging through potholed pavements and hopping over muddy puddles to get to the hall, but it is a shipyard after all, so my advise would be to just not wear stilettos (a common mistake of mine).

One of the most strange phenomenons I've probably ever encountered in Eurovision happened when standing in line to enter the hall. The security check is what you'd expect and moves along rapidly but once you pass through, it's free reign into the hall. Get this - no one checked, scanned or asked for our tickets(!), and at no point were we asked to present it. We were so surprised that we stood there to see if we're the lucky ones, but this was the process for everyone, you just file through and once you're in, you're in. Yes, there are people there who scan tickets but they're stationed after the security check and it's up to you to decide if you want to go through them or just continue on to the food and drinks stands, and from there into the hall. Even when you're inside you're free to decide if you want to stand in the fan zone or head on up to the stalls. We were gobsmacked.
Perhaps it's a charming laid back Danish custom of assuming that if you're going to bother to head all the way out to a shipyard on a chilly May night then you might as well just find a seat and settle in. It could be all different for tonight and the remaining rehearsals, but if you're already in town and without a ticket there's really nothing to lose by heading over and giving it a try.

To the show, which was to a packed hall with only a few bald spots in the fan standing zones (which again, people were free to go down to at any time). The opening is fun, with a brief recap of shots from Semi 1 and a troupe of dancers in futuristic costumes performing an enjoyable routine. Then the hosts come out with the usual banter, and on to the songs.  Side note - the acoustics in the hall are surprisingly good! They did a wonderful job of giving the audience an optimal audio experience.


Malta
Great opener! They perform this flawlessly to a beautiful flower field backdrop and old black and white photos of whomever being peppered into the cubes. It sets a great upbeat cheerful tone and gets the audience right into it, with roaring approval. Prediction: qualifier.

Israel
Disclosure: this is my personal fave and I'm somewhat obsessed to the point of almost-stalker with Mei, but I tried to remain as objective as I can when putting together my notes this morning. After a somewhat wobbly rehearsal earlier yesterday which caused some concern among Israelis in the press center, Mei brought her game face to this one and was vocally superb. Together with the 2 gorgeous dancers they create a wonderful girl power experience for the audience, which in return give her an incredible lift with constant cheering and clapping to the beat (vid on my FB page). It of course doesn't harm that she's also facing a sea of Israeli flags in the fan zone and it all comes together brilliantly.  Prediction: qualifier.

Norway
Perfect placing for this ballad after the previous ruckus, and during the postcard the monitors notify the crowd to turn on their camera lights which lends to a stunning surrounding atmosphere for Carl to ease into. Vocally this is flawless but to me it seemed a bit stiff and I'm not sure if Carl made intimate contact with the juries or indeed in the hall, which was a bit more subdued than I expected given where we are. Despite that - prediction: qualifier.

Georgia
This is where things went downhill and fast, at least for the audience (and probably on stage too) after such a superior trio of songs. There's the parachute on stage which no one understands what its purpose is, and that's the most interesting thing going on. Complete indifference in the arena to the point that we could see people shifting about and seemingly not paying attention. Even the fan zone has tuned out at this stage, and I doubt the juries will do this any better justice. Prediction: non-qualifier.

Poland
This has soft porn written all over it and at this point they should lower the lights and guide people to peeping booths. I don't know about the demographic tonight but there were a lot of families and young children in the hall and I'm not sure what they thought of this. The sexual innuendos aren't subtle or obscured, and from the getgo we're treated to bursts of deep cleavage shots on the cubes as Cleo starts her song. And in case anyone is unclear what's going on, a young lass brings her laundry bucket to the furthest point of the catwalk, and slouches and splashes water around ala oops, I got some on my blouse and into my cleavage, I'm a naughty girl..teehee. As I said, subtle. Still, it's infectious, colourful and a whole lot of fun. Prediction: qualifier.

Austria
By far the crowd's fave and even while setting shop during the postcard the audience got into a roaring frenzy. The camera work on this is very clever with Conchita surrounded by darkness as the camera slowly starts zooming in during the first verse and you don't catch glimpse of her face until well into the verse. I've personally warmed up to this because it's such a classy song and Conchita's voice is anything but typical drag - she's genuinely an excellent vocalist, but there's always the fear that the appearance can distract from such a gifted talent. I think the close ups are too frequent and not always flattering to the point that the producers are almost begging you to focus on the beard. We were seated behind a family with two young girls and at the beginning of the song they seemed somewhat engaged (if only due to the crowd's roar), but then when Conchita came into full view they jolted up, pointed to the stage, exchanged some excited words with Mum and whipped out the cameras. At that point I don't think they or their parents paid any attention to the song, and I'm not convinced people at home will either, so I'll go a bit out on a limb. Prediction: non-qualifier. So so so very hope I'm wrong.

Lithuania
Coming on up after Conchita is a tall order for anyone, let alone a song that at least to me requires some repeat listening to get into. The black and blue leather costumes, the tutu with the holes and interesting dance moves have been discussed before, and while Vilija is beautiful and sounded great, the audience wasn't paying much attention. Still, it's Lithuania and they've managed before with much worse but I'm not sure there's enough here to achieve that. Prediction: non-qualifier.

Finland
Everything here works. They're vocally spot on, the tempo gets the hall going and there's nothing about this that I could point to that could keep them away from Saturday. Prediction: qualifier.

Ireland
This was a very good performance for them, and the Celtic themed backdrop + floor projection design is probably the most eye pleasing of the night. Kasey's had some vocal issues in previous rehearsals but at least from the hall this sounded fine, although I noticed a lacking of eye contact and not enough smiling when I glimpsed over to the monitors. As it's been said before, the dancers seem out of place and at times it almost looks as if they're wandering on and off stage ala Jimmy Jump in Oslo. Prediction: non-qualifier.

Belarus
In one word: slick! Teo is a stage animal and moves and sings with such ease and charisma that the audience roared with approval throughout. Clad in black suits with casual open neck shirts, Teo and his dancers shift effortlessly on the stage with his lads providing superb backing vocals as well. If I had to pick a Netherlands of this semi in terms of betting status and post-semi buzz it would be this. Prediction: qualifier.

F.Y.R. Macedonia
Tijana seems like a good singer, as witnessed in the Israeli party on Monday and indeed last night, but this song just seems to go nowhere. The black and white staging for this is visually beautiful and she's wearing a black pant suit with white piping to match, but I'm doubtful this has the goods to make it further. Prediction: non-qualifier.

Switzerland
I never really paid previous attention to this song, but seeing them on stage you can do nothing but, and then some. Sebalter and his crew are absolutely magnificent, making eye contact, smiling to each other and the cameras, and you can tell they're having a blast. This is so energetic and fun, and the audience got into it and clapped and cheered all the way through. Sebalter gradually makes his way to the catwalk and the fan zone greets him with gusto. Prediction; qualifier.

Greece
This gets a great serve-up by the hosts who introduce Greece as the land of democracy, something else, and tzatziki (cue laughter) which in return causes the audience to greet the artists with a huge cheer as they get ready. Luckily for them, this suffers nothing from the shaky vocals because it's all about the rap, the beat and the spectacular visual accompaniment. Toss in a trampoline with a jumping man in a tight white onesie, the two lads joining him at some point, the manic pulsing backdrop- and this sets the hall on fire. Prediction: qualifier.

Slovenia
I can't say I saw it coming but this was quite lovely on stage, and like others before it could benefit mightily from following in the footsteps of such a loud predecessor.Tinkara is in a dark blue gown with an atmospheric backdrop that beautifully blends with it, and both her and her flute sound pitch perfect. To me this could pull a San Marino and slip into Saturday without being noticed.  Prediction: qualifier.

Romania
True to the standard we've been accustomed to by Romania in Eurovisions past, Paula and Ovi throw the kitchen sink into this one. The song itself is pretty meh to me, nothing there to like or wish to inflict on others, but the show they put on is so spectacularly over the top that I ended up loving it. What don't we have here? A human hologram that lends itself to the illusion of Paula being in two places at once, a hula hoop circular keyboard that Ovi wriggles his way in and out of (looking absolutely ridiculous in the process, but that's besides the point), pyros from here to kingdom come, and a dizzying backdrop of doves, skies and hues. Not too shabby, and the audience eats it up, as admittedly did I. Wonderful way to close the semi. Prediction: qualifier.

I won't spill the beans too much on the intermission but there's a fabulous dance show put on by a bunch of kids who were chosen after submitting their own clips to the show, and ending with a little old lady in a sparkling silver blouse who comes on stage and brings the roof down with her dance moves.
We then get another equally pleasing segment which is basically an orgy of love for Australia. It starts with a funny video clip followed by a marvelously and spectacularly weird stage frenzy which features a giant kangaroo, a huge mouse platypus, a gigantic bug, a shirtless surfer on his board, rugby players huddling in short shorts, a tennis player, and a backdrop of dingos, parakeets, the Outback, local currency and a giant Russel Crowe (at least I think that's him?). Whatever you do, DON'T MISS THIS! This of course all leads up to the introduction of Jessica Mauboy who is chart topping star back Down Under and who belts out a great song which would be a serious contender in any Eurovision, but is greeted with relative indifference by the local crowd.

It's going to be a glorious show all around, one of the most enjoyable semis I can recall :-)