The press conference of the 2nd semifinal is happening at the moment. Which means that each of the ten countries will not receive their final draw order, as that will be decided by the show producers. However, they will draw whether they will sing in the first or second half.
Azerbaijan draws SECOND half
Finland draws FIRST half
Malta draws FIRST half
Eythor just said "You know" about 57 times
Iceland draws SECOND half
The Koza Mostra lead singer kept eating the microphone and stating "No, I'm not drunk..."
A Greek female journalist also gave him a packet of Greek coffee. Does Greece actually grow coffee?!
Greece draws SECOND half
Armenia draws FIRST half
Hungary draws SECOND half
Norway draws SECOND half
Nodi just called Thomas G:son "Thomas Jayson" whereas Sophie corrected him to "Thomas Gayson"
BTW, this also means the remaining countries will be second half, as there are no more slots for the first half left.
So Georgia SECOND half
Romania SECOND half
And Cezar didn't like being compared to Dracula, and more or less said that he's almost as well-known as Dracula anyway...
Bringing you all the news and gossip from the rehearsals in Vienna
Thursday, 16 May 2013
Semi-final 2: Where's the value?
Tuesday was an interesting night for those who like to gamble on the Eurovision Song Contest, with a few surprises, at least statistically: the Netherlands qualifying for the first time since 2004, plus a blanket failure by the ex-Yugoslav nations, with none of Slovenia, Montenegro, Croatia or Serbia making it to the Saturday night show.
So where's the value in the betting markets for tonight's second semi-final? In theory, it should be a much less predictable affair, with an interesting mix of voting countries and musical styles to choose from. Despite this, the qualification market shows a clearer picture at the top of the scoreboard: the available prices for Norway (1.02), Georgia (1.04), Azerbaijan (1.05) and Greece (1.07) suggest that there are four very clear favourites to reach the grand final, and it's hard to argue with that. Interestingly, next in line is Malta at 1.36, followed by Israel and fan fave San Marino at 1.4.
At the other end of the market, Latvia (5.5) and Macedonia (5) are the clear outsiders, but again, it's difficult to find too many counterarguments there. More interesting are the prices for the hipster-friendly Hungary (3.8), Switzerland with its potentially huge Salvation Army televote (2.95) or even perpetual qualifier Romania (2.55), whose singer Cezar is unquestionably ridiculous but is blessed with an optimal draw, closing the semi-final with the bombastic and spectacular "It's My Life" (even if it's spectacular for all the wrong reasons). Any of these bets could represent good value - though I'm most tempted by the 2 that's available for Bulgaria, represented by the experienced Elitsa & Stoyan in a semi-final that's full of potentially friendly countries.
On the non-qualification side, if you don't buy into the Valentina Monetta hype, you can still find a healthy 3.2 if you believe that San Marino will fail to make it to the final. Finland's "Marry Me" is a hugely western-friendly song and performance, and 3.25 says that the rest of Europe will turn its back to a sufficient extent. But I'm perhaps most drawn to the 3.4 that's available for Malta to fail to qualify - Gianluca hasn't been hugely impressive in rehearsals and I'm not convinced that the friendly and cheerful vibe of the song comes across well enough on stage.
While the markets are convinced that there are four clear qualifiers, there's less of a consensus when it comes to the winner of the second semi-final. Norway is currently leading the way at 2.8, with Georgia next in line (4.32). For me, however, a Thursday night audience with this voting demographic could easily vote in numbers for Koza Mostra from Greece, and a price of 10 for them to win the semi-final seems well worth a look. Alternatively, if you want a real punt, Latvia is available for a mere 228. Anybody...?
The top 3 finish market opens up some interesting possibilities, although (as with the winner market) bets won't be settled until after the full results are revealed, presumably in the early hours of Sunday morning. Here, Greece is still decent value at 2.12, but I'd be looking at some interesting outsiders instead. For example, Israel is the only song in the "dramatic female ballad" genre tonight (unless you count the first two minutes of San Marino), so it could easily suck up a lot of jury votes. If you think that's enough for them to reach the podium positions, a price of 9 is currently available. Similarly, the Icelandic ballad could cut through the field and take points from everywhere - a quite generous 13 can be found for Eythor and "Ég á líf". Alternatively, you could play it ultra-safe and take the 1.66 that's available for Georgia to finish in the top 3 - surely a banker?
Finally, let's take a look at the head-to-heads that are available from Bwin this time. Most interesting to me is San Marino vs. Israel, where Israel is seen as the outsider at a price of 1.95! I find it hard to conceive of a situation where Moran Mazor is outscored by Valentina Monetta, so that's a very tempting bet. By contrast, the San Marino vs. Greece match-up has Greece as the favourites, but 1.50 is still a very welcoming price for the more committed gambler. And if I'm tipping Greece as the semi-final winner, I suppose I have to highlight the 2.40 that's available if you think Koza Mostra will finish higher than Georgia's Sophie & Nodi.
Those are just a few of the options available to you if you feel like having a little flutter on tonight's proceedings, anyway. Whatever you do and however much you decide to bet, have a great evening!
So where's the value in the betting markets for tonight's second semi-final? In theory, it should be a much less predictable affair, with an interesting mix of voting countries and musical styles to choose from. Despite this, the qualification market shows a clearer picture at the top of the scoreboard: the available prices for Norway (1.02), Georgia (1.04), Azerbaijan (1.05) and Greece (1.07) suggest that there are four very clear favourites to reach the grand final, and it's hard to argue with that. Interestingly, next in line is Malta at 1.36, followed by Israel and fan fave San Marino at 1.4.
At the other end of the market, Latvia (5.5) and Macedonia (5) are the clear outsiders, but again, it's difficult to find too many counterarguments there. More interesting are the prices for the hipster-friendly Hungary (3.8), Switzerland with its potentially huge Salvation Army televote (2.95) or even perpetual qualifier Romania (2.55), whose singer Cezar is unquestionably ridiculous but is blessed with an optimal draw, closing the semi-final with the bombastic and spectacular "It's My Life" (even if it's spectacular for all the wrong reasons). Any of these bets could represent good value - though I'm most tempted by the 2 that's available for Bulgaria, represented by the experienced Elitsa & Stoyan in a semi-final that's full of potentially friendly countries.
On the non-qualification side, if you don't buy into the Valentina Monetta hype, you can still find a healthy 3.2 if you believe that San Marino will fail to make it to the final. Finland's "Marry Me" is a hugely western-friendly song and performance, and 3.25 says that the rest of Europe will turn its back to a sufficient extent. But I'm perhaps most drawn to the 3.4 that's available for Malta to fail to qualify - Gianluca hasn't been hugely impressive in rehearsals and I'm not convinced that the friendly and cheerful vibe of the song comes across well enough on stage.
While the markets are convinced that there are four clear qualifiers, there's less of a consensus when it comes to the winner of the second semi-final. Norway is currently leading the way at 2.8, with Georgia next in line (4.32). For me, however, a Thursday night audience with this voting demographic could easily vote in numbers for Koza Mostra from Greece, and a price of 10 for them to win the semi-final seems well worth a look. Alternatively, if you want a real punt, Latvia is available for a mere 228. Anybody...?
The top 3 finish market opens up some interesting possibilities, although (as with the winner market) bets won't be settled until after the full results are revealed, presumably in the early hours of Sunday morning. Here, Greece is still decent value at 2.12, but I'd be looking at some interesting outsiders instead. For example, Israel is the only song in the "dramatic female ballad" genre tonight (unless you count the first two minutes of San Marino), so it could easily suck up a lot of jury votes. If you think that's enough for them to reach the podium positions, a price of 9 is currently available. Similarly, the Icelandic ballad could cut through the field and take points from everywhere - a quite generous 13 can be found for Eythor and "Ég á líf". Alternatively, you could play it ultra-safe and take the 1.66 that's available for Georgia to finish in the top 3 - surely a banker?
Finally, let's take a look at the head-to-heads that are available from Bwin this time. Most interesting to me is San Marino vs. Israel, where Israel is seen as the outsider at a price of 1.95! I find it hard to conceive of a situation where Moran Mazor is outscored by Valentina Monetta, so that's a very tempting bet. By contrast, the San Marino vs. Greece match-up has Greece as the favourites, but 1.50 is still a very welcoming price for the more committed gambler. And if I'm tipping Greece as the semi-final winner, I suppose I have to highlight the 2.40 that's available if you think Koza Mostra will finish higher than Georgia's Sophie & Nodi.
Those are just a few of the options available to you if you feel like having a little flutter on tonight's proceedings, anyway. Whatever you do and however much you decide to bet, have a great evening!
Some thoughts on tonight's semi-final
I watched the jury performances last night next to Sild while he was blogging, and I have to say that I think it's one of the hardest semis to call in a number of years. So much so that I genuinely think that absolutely anybody could - there's literally no act I would automatically discard.
Oh, and as I sit writing this in our apartment close to the Folkets Park here in Malmö, I can hear some guy teaching kids a dance routine to the instrumental version of Montenegro on the big stage there. Only in Sweden.
1. Greece - not my cup of tea at all, but they're great on stage, and we know how strong the Greek results have been in the semi-finals.
2. Azerbaijan - it's Azerbaijan, obv. Only the early draw stops this winning the semi. Oh, and here's a video of Farid jogging - keep your eyes up!
3. Iceland - I wasn't convinced about this until I saw it at the dress rehearsal yesterday, but there it was absolutely amazing. A beautiful atmosphere and one of the best vocals of the night, supported by an excellent choice of recap clip at the end.
4. Israel - complete jury fodder; probably less appeal for televoters, based solely on the fact that it's sung in Hebrew, but it's a strong performance of a good song, and should be safely through to Saturday.
5. Norway - a very good song, and one that I find very difficult to rate as I love it so much Am I overrating it because of my love, or underrating because I'm paranoid about it and see the tiniest flaw?
6. Georgia - mechanical, cold, effective. Sailing through to Saturday night and probably getting the Georgian result when it gets there, but Sophie in particular will need to sing better on Friday to secure the all-important jury vote in the final.
A bit of a drop now to...
7. Finland - won't be loved by everyone, but Krista's really selling it and does sing well. Could be a loser on Saturday night, but should be safe for now.
8. Bulgaria - hated it until a couple of weeks ago, got into it a bit more while out running the other day, then saw the stage performance and remembered just how Elitsa in particular dragged Voda kicking and screaming into 5th place in 2007. More of that should see it safely through tonight.
Now a gap to the next four, which are all very close.
9. Albania - inaccessible and in Albanian, but it's a good song. And it's actually very effective on stage. On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised to see it drop out, replaced by Armenia, though I doubt there's room for both to qualify.
10. Malta - I completely ruled Malta out the last two years. One time they came very close with a pretty terrible song, the other time they snuck through with a decent if slightly amateur song. That's the issue this time too. Based purely on the combination of song and performance, Gianluca should probably be out - I don't really find it makes the connection it needs on stage - but its friendly votes will probably jump it above the parapet.
11.Armenia - we've seen before that they can fail. Other than diaspora, I really don't see where this song's votes come from, even if I quite like it myself. Wouldn't be surprised to see it swap with Albania though.
12.Switzerland - close to the ones above, but without the friendly votes it drops out of the reckoning. Before this week I might have rated it lower, but with a good draw it somehow works quite well on stage.
A gap here to the ones I'm most willing to leave out - though as I mentioned, I wouldn't be shocked to see any of these qualify.
13.Latvia - I hope I'm right, at least. It's a decent opener, and gets the audience into the show, but who really remembers the warm-up act after the main performances have been on?
14.Romania - if this were Saturday night, I probably wouldn't rank Romania this low (or rather, I'd probably predict it about 14th out of a field of 26. But on a Thursday, when the majority of the televoting audience aren't completely hammered, and with a jury that's probably going to crush it, I have to put Romania.
15.Macedonia - it's a great song, I do love it, and I think its chances will really depend on if juries respect it, but my feeling is that most of the audience is just going to find it a little difficult and weird.
16.Hungary - I'm sad to do this, and maybe I'm just being overly critical and paranoid about its performance and chances, but I really didn't feel it connected at last night's dress rehearsal - and that's what this song really needs to do.
17.San Marino - Oh San Marino... Valentina sings well, but the whole performance just comes off a little amateur, and, to borrow a comment Martin made a month or so ago, it's just Sense tu with a fast bit at the end really, isn't it? I see no reason an audience should really go for this. On the other hand, with the automatic points we suspect it has from its friendly juries, being this low is probably unlikely - it's probably one of the least likely to actually come last, but also the least likely to qualify.
Probably completely wrong, and I'll actually feel sorry for several of the songs that don't qualify, whatever they are. Everyone's clearly put in a lot of effort and upped their game, and compared to Semi 1, the overall standard is clearly that much higher.
Oh, and as I sit writing this in our apartment close to the Folkets Park here in Malmö, I can hear some guy teaching kids a dance routine to the instrumental version of Montenegro on the big stage there. Only in Sweden.
1. Greece - not my cup of tea at all, but they're great on stage, and we know how strong the Greek results have been in the semi-finals.
2. Azerbaijan - it's Azerbaijan, obv. Only the early draw stops this winning the semi. Oh, and here's a video of Farid jogging - keep your eyes up!
3. Iceland - I wasn't convinced about this until I saw it at the dress rehearsal yesterday, but there it was absolutely amazing. A beautiful atmosphere and one of the best vocals of the night, supported by an excellent choice of recap clip at the end.
4. Israel - complete jury fodder; probably less appeal for televoters, based solely on the fact that it's sung in Hebrew, but it's a strong performance of a good song, and should be safely through to Saturday.
5. Norway - a very good song, and one that I find very difficult to rate as I love it so much Am I overrating it because of my love, or underrating because I'm paranoid about it and see the tiniest flaw?
6. Georgia - mechanical, cold, effective. Sailing through to Saturday night and probably getting the Georgian result when it gets there, but Sophie in particular will need to sing better on Friday to secure the all-important jury vote in the final.
A bit of a drop now to...
7. Finland - won't be loved by everyone, but Krista's really selling it and does sing well. Could be a loser on Saturday night, but should be safe for now.
8. Bulgaria - hated it until a couple of weeks ago, got into it a bit more while out running the other day, then saw the stage performance and remembered just how Elitsa in particular dragged Voda kicking and screaming into 5th place in 2007. More of that should see it safely through tonight.
Now a gap to the next four, which are all very close.
9. Albania - inaccessible and in Albanian, but it's a good song. And it's actually very effective on stage. On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised to see it drop out, replaced by Armenia, though I doubt there's room for both to qualify.
10. Malta - I completely ruled Malta out the last two years. One time they came very close with a pretty terrible song, the other time they snuck through with a decent if slightly amateur song. That's the issue this time too. Based purely on the combination of song and performance, Gianluca should probably be out - I don't really find it makes the connection it needs on stage - but its friendly votes will probably jump it above the parapet.
11.
12.
A gap here to the ones I'm most willing to leave out - though as I mentioned, I wouldn't be shocked to see any of these qualify.
13.
14.
15.
16.
17.
Probably completely wrong, and I'll actually feel sorry for several of the songs that don't qualify, whatever they are. Everyone's clearly put in a lot of effort and upped their game, and compared to Semi 1, the overall standard is clearly that much higher.
Semi 2? Eek nooooo
Watching the second jury semi ended up being a rather difficult task (despite not having to blog this one) - it may have only one more song than the first one, but it somehow felt a lot longer. I'm not sure why, possibly it's the songs or the way they're ordered. When the recap showed the earlier songs, some of us wondered "oh, this was today?", possibly suggesting that they may suffer in the televote.My main advice here is not to get non-hardcore fans to watch it with you. Especially the sceptical kind. As Sild reported and Keith captured in his camera, a night like this can only end up in tearing Lou leaflets and putting her head on a mad cat.
I'll try to do some kind of prediction too, so:
1: ICELAND - After so many ESC ballads over the last three years have been compared to Yohanna, this is the first one that actually gives me a similar feeling. Not really because of it being the same country, or hair, but rather the way a simple ballad is staged to perfection. I can see this finishing top 3 in both televote and jury.
2: AZERBAIJAN - As Sild said, this somehow wasn't as good as it promised during the earlier rehearsals, but should still sneak up to the top 3 or so if he manages to find the cameras again by tonight. I wonder if it's all the fanboys in Euroclub that made him so camera-confused?
3: GREECE - It's an OPA feeling all over again, and that one finished second in its semi, and possibly third under the new system, so this is what I'll guess.
4: NORWAY - I was worried about the limited appeal this song might have among those who aren't electronic music fans or Scandinavian, but the staging makes this stand out enough.
5: GEORGIA - The poor guy really looked like he's going to explode last night, but this shouldn't stop most those who go for the calculated stuff.
6: ISRAEL - Jury pleaser and all that, but by the end of the semi I kind of forgot it was there. Maybe it was Iceland's fault.
7: MALTA - As Sild said, there's an audience for stuff like this, but Malta also has a few jury friends in this semi.
8: FINLAND - Another of those that would make more sense on a Saturday night. Last night, especially in this draw, felt too early for this kind of thing, but I guess they've still done enough.
9: ARMENIA - Felt like a surefire top 5 while watching it, but by the end of the contest, Albania stole some of their thunder. Wouldn't be surprised if this doesn't make it at all.
10: BULGARIA - This may be three minutes of random noise, but somehow I remembered this at the end of the contest. These guys know how to sell a non-song when it matters, so it may be enough.
11: ROMANIA - Still no idea where to put this, so I'll throw it in the borderline region. I don't even know if I want this to qualify or not, either result would be some kind of amazing.
12: HUNGARY - I couldn't be happier to be wrong about this, as this is my favourite in the entire contest, but sadly this didn't have the intimate feeling it had in the smaller stage of the Hungarian final, and Alex looks a bit lost here.
13: SAN MARINO - I saw nothing to convince me that they'll get a significant number genuine televotes or jury votes. It's all a question of whether their pre-agreed swaps are enough.
14: ALBANIA - The ending with the pyro and all is quite impressive, but there's an awkward intro with lots of bad teeth to put many viewers off before that.
15: MACEDONIA - I adore this now, but it took me several times to get it at all, and I don't see why a normal viewer should.
16: SWITZERLAND - Is this starting to look like Sild's list? This has a good draw, but "who are these strange-looking people and why are they just standing in a line" will probably be the most common reaction tonight.
17: LATVIA - I didn't think it was as bad as Sild did, but still, when the recap came, it felt like some kind of distant intro. Can their diaspora in Norway save them from zero?
Off to enjoy some Swedish sun now. Hej dough!
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