Saturday, 18 May 2013

Eurovision Day is here, ZOMGZ!!

Two weeks in Malmö are drawing to an end, and we've seen lots of rehearsals, mad cats, cows in the arena (or heard them, at least), worked our way through quite a substantial amount of wine, free or otherwise - and now we're nearly there. Tonight at 21:00 CET the Eurovision Song Contest 2013 will begin, and not too many minutes into tomorrow (depending on whether they've cut anything from the looong intro or the looooonger interval act) we'll know Loreen's successor.

I've been twisting my head forwards and backwards (and a little to the side, like in my accreditation photo) to try to figure out who it's going to be. The obvious answer is of course "Denmark", if polls and bookmakers are to be believed. But then again, so we thought about France in 2011 - could it be a case of the same kind of "accelerating favourite", that more and more people gets behind simply because they're starting to get a bit clueless? I don't really think the two are comparable, for what it's worth, and I doubt we'll see Emmelie de Forest crash to the same extent as Amaury Vassili did two years ago. I have been doubting her chances to actually win all season, though, and if nothing else, I want to stick with my prediction that she won't, just to make sure I'm not just swooped up in the majority view. A top 3 finish seems very likely, though, a prediction supported by the Danish song's success in various iTunes charts across Europe.

But then we need someone else to win, don't we...? GARGH. I've had Germany as a front runner big parts of the season, and Cascada is selling it extremely well on stage, so there's little reason to change that thought based on the rehearsals we've seen. However, I think it's safe to say its main audience is the televoters, and I do fear it might lose out on a few votes by being performed as #11. It's not a disastrous draw, but almost all of the other potential vote-grabbers have been luckier, and are to be find towards the end of the running order. Or could it actually hurt the others to be chucked together, and make Germany stand out more?

The delicious Fərid Məmmədov from Azerbaijan is hard to overlook, even though he is very short. His face is not a work of classic beauty, but with those arms, several upside-down e's in his name and that smouldering look in his eyes, I'm sold as hell. The strong, powerful song obviously helps too, and I think he's heading for a safe top 5 result. Yet, I can't see it winning, for some reason.

So we're left with Norway's Margaret Berger... I've loved this from about the first time I heard it, back in January, and it sure hasn't gotten any worse during rehearsals. She keeps nailing it, and is getting more smiley and charismatic by each run-through. I've been trying my best to avoid getting carried away and overrate its chances, but after convincing myself I won't get on the bandwagon and predict Denmark (even though I know there's a fair chance it's going to happen), this is by far the best package I'm left with - a great draw and a great performance, and a song that should appeal to televoters and juries alike. Boy, am I in for a disappointment tonight or what... :-o

So with that covered, this is how I think the complete scoreboard will look at the end of the evening. Am I wrong? Am I right? Comment or ridicule below!

1: NORWAY - Iiiiihh!
2: DENMARK - If it's not Norway, it's this. A good winner, but would be a bit anticlimactic...
3: AZERBAIJAN - Omnomnom
4: GERMANY - Hoping the juries went for it last night, and that she shines like we know she's capable of on screen tonight.
5: GREECE - May well be top 3 in the televote, and even I have started to mind it less by now... Is it related to hottie lead singer being very nice and touchy when we had our picture taken...?
6: UKRAINE - Useless, shouty mess, but god what a great mess it is.
7: NETHERLANDS - I really hope this doesn't fail...
8: ITALY - Had started to believe in a top 5 finish, but that performance in the jury final last night made me wonder. It should theoretically be his main audience after all, more so than the televote.
9: RUSSIA - Been solid all week, and works well, but there's little to actually love here.
10: GEORGIA - Similar to Russia - just a bit less solid the last few days.
11: ICELAND - Still think this is getting Norway's douze.
12: MOLDOVA - Would've been interesting to have this on much later, it does seem to disappear a bit when on as #3. A great little (well, tall) thing, though - the one that rose from rehearsals for me.
13: IRELAND - Should manage a decent result, but don't think it'll trouble any end of the scoreboard.
14: SWEDEN - An odd home entry, really, quite a different song from the rest. He's singing it well, though, and even if it might disappear a little for the televoters, I expect it got some jury support last night.
15: HUNGARY - Speaking of different... Love this to bits, and it stands out a mile.
16: ROMANIA - Yikes.
17: MALTA - Sweet and endearing in a goofy way, with his shy grin and walking with his feet turned inwards. Might get lost tonight, but should have a certain audience.
18: ARMENIA - Competent and solid, but probably won't have a massive audience. And I'm guessing the juries in countries that normally have them high in their televote may be a little extra careful to vote it down, unfair or not.
19: LITHUANIA - A great little song, this, and the performance last night was the best I've seen it, with a cheeky charm, and Andrius clearly enjoying himself.
20: FINLAND - This is as solid as ever, but I'm expecting it to get a bit lost when on as #4 - in addition to having a rather limited audience, region-wise.
21: BELGIUM - Competent enough, but forgotten a few songs after.
22: BELARUS - Well, who's gonna vote for this then? A few good neighbours and friends, and that'll be just about it, I would think. Still, CHA CHA HEY and CLINK * CLINK * CLINK
23: ESTONIA - Sweet and lovely, but rather doomed, I fear.
24: FRANCE - Not as good as it wants to be, and even if it were, would probably have a limited voting demographic. Will they repeat last year's televote zero? I guess it's technically not possible with the new voting system (as we won't have a 'televote 1-12'), but yaknowwhatimean.
25: UNITED KINGDOM - Nice and proper, if a little dull. 'Nice and proper, if a little dull' doesn't get you votes at Eurovision.
26: SPAIN - Making the most of what it is, but it still is what it is, sadly. Could we get our first zero in the final since the introduction of semi finals?

Good luck to all of you tonight!! xx


  1. "(...) and we've seen lots of rehearsals, mad cats, cows in the arena (...)"

    but why, oh why?, couldn't we see Farid jogging shirtless?

    1. I knoooow... He'll just have to enter again.

  2. Im Happy you picked Norway as your winner i also want Norway to win tonight and i hope me and you are very happy after the result.

  3. Grab your kleneses, Anonymous, it won't happen

  4. I have a question - Since the two hot favorites, Denmark and Norway, are both Nordic, and since Sweden, Iceland and Finland are also said to do well, isn't there kind of a big risk that some of these five countries are completely falling flat and ending up last? Last year Sweden took all the Eastern European and Balkan votes that would otherwise maybe have went to the rest of the Nordics, and because of that, Iceland Denmark and Norway ended up in the bottom of the scoreboard.
    Isnt the risk that either Denmark or Norway are going to disappoint badly kind of big?

    1. I don't necessarily think so - if they were only competing for the Nordic votes in the first place, they'd do badly anyway, not because there weren't enough Nordic points to go around. And I doubt most others only have a 'set amount' of points going to the Nordics.

    2. The last time all Nordic countries were in the final, they ended quite separated (Norway 1st, Iceland 2nd, Denmark 14th, Sweden 21st, Finland 25th), so it's prefectly possible to Norway and Denmark to make the TOP 2, and the other 3 nordic countries to end quite well in the scoreboard (8-16)

    3. *Denmark came 13th in 2009 :)