Wednesday, 15 May 2013

Jury Semi 2

We're getting ready to watch the second dress rehearsal of semi 2, nicely situated in front of one of the big screens in the press centre. With us is also a nice printout of mad cat.

We'll update the blog throughout, so watch this space!

And we are on, with what seems to be a philharmonic orchestra of dancers on stage. Not quite sure what that means, but then I'm not quite sure what's happeneing either, so... It turns a bit more street as the dancers literally slide off the stage and are replaced by bikers (Ola & Barbro?) and more dancing. They somehow manage to turn the stage into a laptop at some point, which looks a bit cool.

Petra shows up to welcome Europe, to which the band Europe (or HEAT or Generic Swedish Poodle Rock Band) briefly pop by, and she's in a rather hideous dress. It somehow looks like ballgown where someone decided to lift her skirt to have a look at her mad cat, so to speak.

LATVIA - Giraffes in their postcard? I might have to start to like this... The glittery boys seem even myre hyper than normally, which I guess makes sense, as they probably feed off the audience. But there's little doubt the audience don't care... The dreaded stagedive is indeed taken care of by stageworkers rather than the audience, and frankly, it looks shit. All in all it works quite well, and it's arguably the best possible draw for this, but I still can't see it happening.

SAN MARINO - Valentina Mousepadetta is looking particularly distressed today. Other than that, it looks pretty much like it has all week, and she's in good voice. The 02 San Marino caption in the bottom left seems to be double - was this case during Latvia too, I wonder?

MACEDONIA - It is still double for Macedonia, at least... Lozano has now lost his glasses (which have come in various shapes and colours over the last week), and is apparently so scared of dropping his earpieces that he's plastered them completely. He's actually looking quite dishy in a simple black suit, singing excellently and seems very sincere about it all. And Esma is Esma, of course. Great stuff, this - would be lovely to see them make it.

AZERBAIJAN - I love the second shot of this, where we start off with Farid in profile, and then he turns towards the camera. Sadly, he almost always misses the camera with a tiny smidgen each time - GAH. Vocally strong as always, and this is bound to do well.

FINLAND - Krista seems to have recovered from her cold, which is good for her, less good for us, that may have to suffer the constant dingdongs again. The backing singers have clearly done like me and visited the local hairdressers, and are now sporting some kind of 50s hairdos that Aliona Moo would defeinitely approve of. I thought she messed up the singing a little for the keychange, but not in a way that matters. There's pink confetti, pink kissing and a manic DIIING DOOOOONG at the end - this should be popular in the Northwest, but presumably far less so elsewhere.

Petra tries to be funny, but somewhat fails, when introducing Lynda Woodruff, who is now after Finland, for some reason - not between entry 13 and 14 like in the previous rehearsal.

Like in the 2008 postcards, the butterfly flags sometimes have us guessing what the next entry is, and we think the next one up is Peru.

PERU (or MALTA) - Gianluca looks cheerful, but nervous. Which might not necessarily work to his disadvantage, actually - it somehow makes him across as human, and the human factor and his boy-next-door charm is a big part of the appeal here, I assume. In that respect, it would come across as a nice breath of fresh air after Finland's madness, but that effect is somewhat spoiled by the break.

BULGARIA - The postcard features lots of drumming, unsurprisingly. And if I haven't mentioned it before, the postcards are great in general - especially with acts like this too, where we get an extra chance to get to know them outside of the 3 minutes on stage, and what they're all about. Which for Stoyan and Elitsa is clearly 'banging things'. For one that hates this, I think it comes across quite nicely - it's different, they know what they're doing, and the light-heavy stage gets to shine in all it's glory with lots of flashes along with the beat.

ICELAND - We're back in the black suit, which is a good decision, I think. The simple, but powerful, performance comes across great after the Bulgarian banging - I think I know where the Norwegian douze is heading, at least!

GREECE - The lead singer was struggling to find the right cameras when we first zoom in on him, which makes him look a bit befuddled for a moment. Finding several later on, though, to great effect, I certainly felt that he was looking right at me. And I wouldn't mind that... Great chemistry, and this is obviously sailing through, or maybe even winning the semi. One of the band members had some earpiece issues towards the end, making it bounce about like mad around him, but I doubt that will cost them anything.

ISRAEL - Not much to say about this compared to before, except that she's apparently stolen Zlata's massive butterfly ring! The drama! Good draw for this too after Greece, and absolutely nothing wrong with the singing. Juries should adore this, the question is the televoters - personally, I think quite a few of them will too.

ARMENIA - A massive COUGH or something appeared out of the blue during the first chorus, what the hell was that?! It didn't look like it came out of any of them... I think this is coming across very well considering the fact I find it a nothingness of a song. It seems sincere and 'proper', somehow - no butterflies, no giants, no pink kisses, just them doing what the should, and doing it well.

HUNGARY - ByeAlex is looking rather terrified and worried for some reason, and not just in a hipster-I'm-standing-here-in-my-hat-singing kind of way. The guitarist is loving it, though, and even got some cheers from the audience during a little instrumental break. Alex himself is finally finding some cameras throughout, to great effect, but I fear this might be a bit too introvert and, well, Hungarian for most other viewers than those in the Nordics in this semi.

NORWAY - Unlike Hungary, this is eye-contactastic. She's pretty much finding all the cameras, looking into them with the right mix of happiness and coldness, and even smiles at times. And thanks to her arms, and not to mention the stage and lighting, the moment when the first chorus kicks in is the moment of this Eurovision for me. If this doesn't qualify, I'll bite someone.

A break with an "interview" with "Farid" after Norway, and Petra suggests she will be talking to 'someone we don't know yet' - could it be Lys?

ALBANIA - The Albanians have been spotted at most of the parties over the week, so they're obviously making the most of their experience. And I have a feeling they wouldn't be too bothered about not qualifying either - they seem confident enough about what they're doing and who they are, and this, like Armenia, feels very real. Well done, lads!

GEORGIA - Calculated, cold, loud - and fecking effective. But lo behold - were they a bit off during the MASSIVE notes, or was that just me?

SWITZERLAND - We heard rumours they'd been told to not wear the shirts with the slogan on, but they're still in them, so that might have been all lies. Lead singer has lost his glasses, though. Maybe someone sat on them. There is some kind of charm in this, but I think it would've worked better with a shorter song. Or less clothes on the Gygax.

ROMANIA - Yikes, the dancers from under the blanket appears to be all naked and red. Doesn't really help that they look like they're in the middle of an orgy at some point... This is mental, ridiculous, red, horrendous, wonderful, and... qualifying...?!

Petra looks wonderfully bemused after Romania - is that why SVT put them on last?

San Marino goes for a pretty early bit of their song in the snabbrepris, which is a surprising choice. Some of the long shots used for Azerbaijan are also less effective, but the part of the song makes perfect sense. Bulgaria chose som random verse - why, dears? Well if it keeps them from qualifying, it's fine by me!

Petra seems to be flirting with Cezar in the greenroom, before sitting down with Moran Mazor to introduce the Eurovision history lesson. God, the 80s were amazing!

And we have a second recap, in which Valentina Monetta indeed throws her cape and we have a beat! Makes sense in a way, when there are two recaps, and you have two different songs...

Europe show up again, as Petra announces the final countdown. Silly, but I like silly :-)

Darin is cuuuute, btw. He starts off slow at the piano for his recent hit Nobody knows, but it quickly turns into the fab, well-produced pop track it is. On a different note, he appears to be wearing a Swarbriggs Minus Two t-shirt!

He's followed by Agnes, who's dressed in lots of flaring fabrics. Clearly an interval act aimed at the local audience more than the international, but as many broadcasters cut to ads anyway, that's makes perfect sense. And unlike the dancing in semi 2, it gives the audience something to cheer for. Which they do - judging by one of the screams when she finished, Adelén is there and liked it a lot.

And after having France, Spain and Germany waving from the audience, we have our random qualifiers announced:

Switzerland (Adelén liked that too)
Greece
Georgia
Peru
San Marino
Norway
Romania
Israel
Hungary
(Some great acting by the volunteers for the greenroom shots here)
Finland

I'll give you my prediction tomorrow, with a full ranking like I did for semi 2. Stay tuned!

Second semi final dress rehearsal - blog

Unfortunately, we can't be in the press centre this afternoon, so we advise you to check out Martin's live blog on esc-chat.com

http://esc-chat.com/2013/05/15/live-blog-first-dress-rehearsal-of-semi-final-two/

We'll be back tonight for the jury performance. Stay tuned!

And on a side note.. Anouk has finlly released the videoclip to "Birds"

Tuesday, 14 May 2013

It's Eurovision today!

The day of semi 1 has arrived, and despite (or maybe because?) following lots of rehearsals, we really are none the wiser, are we? Nevertheless, I'll dive into it and predict tonight's ten qualifiers. And to make sure I make an even bigger fool out of myself, I'll even throw in a more or less complete ranking of how I think it'll look when the full results are out on Sunday morning (or before, 2005-style).

So, here you go!

1: MOLDOVA- A little bit of a risky guess here, but I think it's going to do very well with the juries, and see no reason why at least some of the televoters shouldn't too.
2: DENMARK- I haven't "felt" it properly all season, and think it is far weaker than it's made out to be, but it's bound to do well. I never got the hype about Greece 2005 either, and we all know what happened there.
3: UKRAINE - She knows how to sell it, and it's pretentious enough for several of the jury members to lap it up, despite it having no structure or anything. Oh, and it's FABOO, of course.
4: IRELAND - Coming across very well, both in the hall and on screen - it manages to balance nicely between being modern and traditional, both visually and sound-wise. Would've been even better if he had the attitude to pull it off.
5: RUSSIA - Rock solid.
6: NETHERLANDS - Comes across very well after Ukraine. They have to make it with this one.
7: BELARUS - May well be punished by some juries for being a cheap pile of bouncy cheese, but for what it is, it's quite solid. Just remember to smile... CHA CHA HEY
8: ESTONIA - Stands out as a nice, warm standard ballad with a strong melody, performed well. Might not do too well with televoters, but I think the juries will make sure this makes it.
9: SERBIA - Looks horrible and it's a horrible song, but it somehow still works. Won't be shocked if they don't make it, but should be through.
10: CROATIA - The tricky tenth spot... Not at all sure about this, despite being confident all season.

11: BELGIUM - Opposite of Croatia here - I've had no faith in it all season, but it has crept up on me during rehearsals. In those cases I'm often better off sticking to my initial instinct.
12: MONTENEGRO - I hope I'm wrong - the final needs this!
13: LITHUANIA - Love the song, but it's somehow all lost.
14: CYPRUS - Might not hit a single televote top 10, but some oldfashioned jury members should keep this away from last. And it's cute.
15: SLOVENIA - I love them for trying, but I'd love them more if they'd both tried and actually found a proper song to go along with it. And why cover up the boys with massive masks?! :-(
16: AUSTRIA - Nothing to make it stand out, no friends, no pyro, no petitfours... A shame, really.

Semi-final 1: Where's the value?

Betting on the Eurovision Song Contest has become big business, with literally dozens of online bookmakers (and their high street equivalents, if you happen to live in the UK or Ireland in particular) offering odds not only on the grand final, but also on the most obscure and specific of "markets" - from which Balkan country will finish the highest, to whether Israel will beat San Marino in the second semi-final.

Even with excellent sites like Oddschecker at hand to help, it can be difficult to get an overview of what's available in terms of interesting prices and opportunities to make a few euros. So let's kick off this series of three articles by taking a look at the odds for tonight's first semi-final - with a particular view to the insights that have emerged from the rehearsals that have taken place in Malmö over the last week or so.

(NB. In a break from tradition, I'll be using decimal odds throughout this piece, since they're becoming increasingly commonplace even in the change-resistant UK!)

The logical place to start for most people is the "to qualify/fail to qualify" market. Things are complicated this year by the fact that 10 of the 16 songs will make it through, meaning that the odds on qualification for the big favourites are particularly measly - Denmark, Russia and Ukraine will net you a mere 1.02, 1.02 and 1.06 respectively. At the other end, the least-fancied qualifiers are currently Cyprus and Slovenia at 3.75 and 4.3. In terms of movement during the week, Moldova has impressed a lot of punters and is now seen as a near-certain qualifier, priced at 1.2, while Belgium - previously the rank outsider - has moved in to a shorter but still tempting 3.25 following a solid set of rehearsals.

These low prices mean that the real value is to be found in the non-qualification market. For example, Anouk from the Netherlands has delivered a set of low-key, uncommercial rehearsals. If you think she'll fail to connect with the juries and the televoters to a sufficient extent, you can get 4.5 for the Dutch to stay in the semi-finals yet again. Belarus and Croatia can both be found at 3.25 in the non-qualification market - and I'd personally be surprised if there's room for both of them in the final - while if you think Moje 3's outfits will be enough to put off all but the most ex-Yugoslav of ex-Yugoslav voters, they're at 6.5.

Those aren't the only available options, though. You can also bet on the winner of the semi-final - though bear in mind that, even if successful, you won't get your money until after the full semi results are revealed following Saturday's grand final. Denmark is currently the hot favourite at 2.5, and it's hard to argue with that, though semi-finals often throw up unusual discrepancies in this respect - Kalomira beating Dima Bilan in 2008, for example - because the base of countries voting is so different to in the final. Russia (4.5) and Ukraine (5) could be worth a look for precisely this reason - whereas, at the other end of the market, Betfair will give you a whopping 249 if you think Despina Olympiou will walk away with the crown tonight. (OK, OK, I'll try to stay within the realms of possibility here!)

One particularly interesting avenue is the "top 3 finish" market. Bear in mind, again, that songs can often do extremely well in a smaller semi-final then underperform (comparatively) in the final. Recent top 3 finishers in the semis include Donny Montell in 2012, Maja Keuc and Paradise Oskar in 2011, Hera Björk in 2010, Simon Mathew in 2008... you get the idea!

So where might the value be this time? Ireland and Moldova have gained a lot of momentum in the press centre over recent days, and you could easily see either of them sneaking onto the podium tonight. Ryan Dolan can currently be grabbed at 8.0, while Aliona Moon is priced at 5.5 - both quite tempting, I'd say. Among the more predictable contenders, Russia at 1.58 seems like a particularly decent option if you're the kind of person who treats betting less as an opportunity for big rewards and more as a way of getting a return on your money that's better than what a savings account can offer! And even Denmark at 1.22 appears more than fair, since a finish of 4th or worse for Emmelie seems highly improbable even if she doesn't ultimately live up to her favourite status in the grand final.

Finally, a small number of bookmakers are offering head-to-head markets for tonight's show, most notably Bwin. In terms of achieving balance, it can certainly be good to bet on a relative placing that's unconnected to the absolute placing of the song in question. Bwin will currently give you 3.55 if you think the Netherlands will beat Russia, or a particularly tempting 2.2 if you think Anouk will get the better of the Moje 3 girls - something that could easily happen if she eats up the jury votes. Meanwhile, a similar 2.1 is available if you think Zlata and her giant will come out ahead of the earnestness of Russia's Dina Garipova.

Those are just a few of the options available to you if you feel like having a little flutter on tonight's proceedings, anyway. Whatever you do and however much you decide to bet, have a great evening!