Our predictions for the second semi-final

After watching rehearsals for the second semi-final this is who the ESC Nation bloggers predict to qualify tonight:

	SM	EE	CZ	GR	AT	PL	MD	IS	RS	GE	AL	PT	BG	FI	LV	CH	DK
Ben	X			X			X	X	X			X	X	X		X	X
Jonas	X			X	X		X	X	X				X	X		X	X
Jordy	X			X			X	X	X		X	X	X	X		X
Roger	X			X	X			X	X			X	X	X		X	X
SamB	X			X	X		X	X			X	X	X	X		X
Sild	X			X	X		X	X			X		X	X		X	X
Yair	X			X	X		X	X	X		X		X	X		X

Full marks for San Marino, Greece, Iceland, Bulgaria, Finland and Switzerland. Mixed feelings about Austria, Albania, Moldova, Portugal, Serbia and Denmark. At least two of those twelve of course will definitely miss out.

We're unanimous in predicting Estonia, Czech Republic, Poland, Georgia and Latvia will not make it to the final.

Are we up for a shock though? We'll know in about six hours. Enjoy tonight's show!

Fishy Predictions for the Second Semi-Final

A last-minute, foolish decision to kick out Sweden in favour of Romania in my prediction for Tuesday's semi-final resulted in getting 9/10 right, instead of my first ever 10/10...

So can I make up for it today, I wonder? Unlike Semi 1, I've been thinking for weeks that Semi 2 has ten quite clear-cut qualifiers, and while some have improved or gotten worse during the rehearsals in Rotterdam, I don't think any of these changes have massively affected the qualification chances. Hence there are no weirdass, last-minute alterations in the list below - now watch that being the foolish decision...

I find it a bigger challenge to dig out a semi winner among this bunch than ten qualifiers, as I don't really think anyone has it in them (except Denmark, of course! 🕺). There's about four that feel like they should come 3rd, so I guess it'll just have to be one of those.

1 Bulgaria | It's not really for me, but it clearly is for many others, and I can't fault the performance, so here we are.

2 Iceland | Just to make sure I don't get disappointed when this does better than it deserves, let's just make sure I expect the worst, eh? I truly couldn't stand Think About Things last year, so it was no big surprise this was equally awful, seeing as it's pretty much the same content in the same wrapping. There was a couple of months of glorious relief when far less people seemed to take to 10 Years than to Think About Things, but then somehow people were sold again as soon as they stepped onto the Rotterdam stage and did exactly what everyone knew they would because they always do, dressed exactly like everyone knew they would because they always are. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

3 Switzerland | I never quite saw this as the winning candidate that the odds suggested a few weeks ago, but after seeing it in full in the dress rehearsal yesterday, I also don't think it's any less of a winner now than it was before, despite the somewhat controversial staging, outfit and hand-move choices. Maybe the staging somehow fits it perfectly, and finally shows off the song for what it always was? I'm not entirely sure what that is, however...

4 Greece | Great songs shine through no matter what, but there was no need for that complicated staging.

5 San Marino | I don't think Mr Rida's appearance is making much of a difference as such (whether he's famous, unknown, a has-been or what, would any of those lead to people voting en masse either way?), but it does seem to make Miss Hit very happy and cheerful that he's arrived, which I do think might make a difference.

6 Austria | It's just good, and it shows.

7 Finland | This will certainly have its audience, even if it'll probably have shrunk considerably by Saturday.

8 Albania | Unsurprisingly I've loved this for half a year already, and for once it seems I'm not completely alone in appreciating a shouty and dramatic Albanian lady. Could it be because they've included a [gasp!] tune and a [double-gasp!] structure for once?!

9 Moldova | Quite varied reports from rehearsals, but I'd say it's a strong enough song in its own right. And considering the people behind it, I'm expecting some calls to have been made.

10 Denmark | Pretty please?! 🥺

11 Serbia | I wish they'd gone a bit more overboard with this, for something as loud and chaotic, it comes across surprisingly boring on stage.

12 Portugal | Yes, it looks very good on stage. But let's not forget it's still a godawful song with a godawful voice and a godawful ponytail under a godawful hat.

13 Poland | There are some bits of the song I really like, but no no no. So amateur and average I don't even think UK would've sent it.

14 Latvia | I can easily imagine any of these last four ending dead last - it really is about time we get a four-way tie for last place like in the sixties, isn't it? This one is both awful and glorious though, so might manage to convince some freaks to vote for it. It could even be me 😳

15 Czechia | The sooner he doesn't qualify, the sooner we can elope 🥰

16 Georgia | Feels almost too obviously last to end last.

17 Estonia | Most things would seem bleak after Senhit and Flo's colour explosion, but it's as if they've arranged meetings to think of ways to make this as bleak and forgettable as humanly possible, and even forgot to attend those meetings. I challenge you all to hum this tomorrow at lunch. I'd offer a reward for those that manage, but it feels way too hypothetical to bother.

Day 7 | Second Rehearsals | Second Semi-Final | Second Half | 🇬🇪 🇦🇱 🇵🇹 🇧🇬 🇫🇮 🇱🇻 🇨🇭🇩🇰

This will be a rolling blog, each country in running order, so please refresh to update.

Good morning from Amsterdam (or well .... the Otherdam). Today it's my big pleasure to update you  - on the second rehearsals from the remaining countries in the second semi-final from home, while Jordy will be hanging around in the arena.


🇩🇰 | Denmark

Another upgraded version of the NF performance. They even wear the same outfits. What's new is that there are backings on stage that get their own shot clapping after the word 'dansegulv', which is a nice touch. Also the stage looks amazing. In the same colours we were used to, pink and green/turquoise, but there's a nice animation that makes it looks like they're standing on an even bigger stage. During the bridge Jesper runs towards the sattelite stage, but he also returns quite quickly.

No notable changes in following runthroughs, only the pyro at the last not when Laurits joins Jesper on his mini-stage. The act looks finished and fun as always.

🇨🇭 | Switzerland

Totally not the staging I was expecting for this, but that isn't a bad thing at all. As you know Gjon is standing on a white 'thing' and even has some sort of choreography. We see some very close close-ups and Gjon looks into the camera. He's selling this pretty well, vocally it also sounds more than fine.

During the bridge however for some reason his face is lit with purple light which looks a bit odd. But that's the only thing negative to mention here. This is definitely still a contender.

On the backdrop at times we see some sort of silvery water effect, which looks pretty cool. During the song part of the object he's standing on is being slightly transformed. During the last chorus white spots are lighting up from the background and the floor. It looks great and sounds amazing. It's only the purple bit that seems a bit out of place, but that's not going to break this.

There were small some technical flaws here, the shadow of a cameraman was visible and also a stagehand changing the structure on which Gjon stands in the middle of the song was shortly visible. But these are things that they should be able to fix.


🇱🇻 | Latvia

We didn't get to see the first run, but Jordy just informed me it was stopped in the middle of the song for reasons apparently not obvious. The second run went fine, she and her three backings on stage (yay for that) all in green (backings with the well-know head pieces) and a quite busy yellow-golden abstract backdrop which is also projected on the floor. I was actually positively surprised, expected it to look and sound much more hopeless than it did. Even though it's hard to make something of it and in this semi it is facing quite a hard task. 

Samanta starts at the back of the stage, a bit alike Georgia, but now in green lights. After that she joins the backings center stage. Near the end there's a nice shot from above after which they make the well-know crown gestures. The crown also features as part of the background animation, which as stated above is mostly abstract and busy. Perhaps busy enough for the singers wearing green to get a little bit lost on stage. But all in all, a very decent performance. Is it qualifying? That's probably not the case.

🇫🇮 | Finland

Yay, it was about time for some action, and we get it. The performance, as was to be expected, isn't really much different from what we saw in UMK, but an upgraded version, due to the stage being a lot more impressive. The lighting is mostly red and white. with lots of rays of light in all directions. 

Hardly anything new to tell about this one except that it looks solid and will obviously qualify. And what happens there depends on a lot of other factors, but it could actually get pretty high.

In the third run there's also (modest) pyro effects during some of the choruses. Not the most original song in its genre but well executed.

🇧🇬 | Bulgaria

So Victoria is sitting on this cliff/island thing you've all already seen. With a picture next to her which at one point she emotionally looks at. Stage is all golden lights and golden stars. Much gold in other words. And at one point there's golden sand coming from above gliding through her hands. There were some pretty odd and probably unintentional camera shots in the first runthrough. Also I wasn't fully convinced by her vocals, which seemed to be off at times. But it also seemed she wasn't trying very hard. 

Second run is much better. I called it a cliff/island what she's sitting on, but it's hard to tell what it is. It's floating in a sea which has golden refelctions in the water. And it somehow seems to be turning around during the song. 

They apparently had to cut a bit from the intro and the beginning now sounds a bit odd to me. 

All in all, I'm not feeling the winner vibe some others seem to get, yet. Which may also be because of a bit messy camera work, too much movement, I think it would have worked better if they focused a bit more on Victoria. 

🇵🇹 | Portugal

Performance starts of in 4:3 black and white, and stays like that until the end of the first chorus. The screen widens and we get colour. On the backdrop we shortly see what I suppose is meant to be Amsterdam, then we see silhouettes of an orchestra playing, including a huge piano, all this with a golden background. Near the second chorus a woman appears on the LED wall. At this point the singer walks to the sattelite stage with the woman 'walking along' with him on the transparent LED screen, which is well thought of. Stage colours are very warm (mainly gold and some hints of blue) and well suited to the song. There's also a projection of a big golden heart at one point.

His voice may not be what everyone likes, but he sounded fine for how he sounds. At least the first two runthroughs, there were some pretty ugly notes in the third ...


🇦🇱 | Albania

OK, this looks pretty amazing, from the first second. Anxhela is all alone on stage an wearing a glittery silver dress. On the backdrop we see a lot of red 'explosions', later it becomes a mix of red and turquoise / greenish blue, which may sound odd, but it looks great. During the last minute this turns into a cloudy sky. There's also some smoke on stage. Vocals are totally fine here too, as the artist must realize this *may* be what Europe actually gets to see and hear. Some reporters say 'Iveta' (Armenia 2016) and I can see some similarities indeed. Very well done, and as it was already a borderliner I feel this performance has probably pushed them to that side of the border they want to be at.


🇬🇪 | Georgia

So we're having breakfast with Tornike. Perhaps not the most exciting start of the day, as not a lot happens. Unlike reports from last Tuesday, he is now singing the song as we know it, and it sounded decent enough, even if I feel that the (recorded?) backings are a bit too loud in the mix at points. At the beginning of the song Tornike comes through the stage doors which are lit in white. They close when the starts singing and the backdrop turns into a what sort of resembles a night sky with many moving golden stars.

Coming after some heavy up-tempo stuff, the calm beginning may make this stand out. There's a box on the stage on which Tornike is sitting for the second verse. This is when we see part of the lyrics appear as projections on his face. All in all it's hard to compare as it's the first thing I've seen in full. Also the stream got cut off halfway the second runthrough ....  

I think the opening is effective, and this is important. But I'm not convinced it keeps the attention for long. Also I can't help thinking Tornike feels pretty bored by it himself.

All in all, decent, and not chanceless, but also not very eventful.

Second rehearsal: Lithuania to Bulgaria

Bulgaria


This is very much a performance made for TV, in the arena it's just dark figures on a dark stage. There's a lot of video effects happening, including three of the male singers merging into one, like a real life game of 2048. This sounds fine, although I'm not sure someone watching this for the first time will get what's going on.

Estonia

Elina is looking stunning and sounding confident. For those of you with tickets to higher seats in the arena, this will be a spectacle, because unlike most acts that look tiny, the ice cream dress you can actually see. Also the sight of how they set up the thing and take it apart in 3 seconds. €60,000 well spent.


Belarus

The one we've all waited for. Once again the rose that pierces through Alekseev's hand is pristine, despite what we saw coming out of the crossbow clearly losing some petals along the way. What is the magic.


Israel

We have soap bubbles!

Besides that, they seem to have worked out the fake looper sound at the start and it sounds good. Pyro geysers at the first chorus are not necessary in my opinion (but don't damage this too much). Best part: Side shot on the catwalk with the backing singers emerging behind Netta:

I'm sold, but then I've always thought everything in life needs a Yaz Bitti and soap bubbles.

Lithuania

Press Centre is showing Czech conference, so we're watching this in the arena. Ieva now sings the last sentence in English, although there's a bit of Lithuanian before that. Back to finishing in Lithuanian in the next run, then full English in the last. In the arena it's a bit dull, but on screen it's gorgeous and I can see this in the top 10 on Saturday with the right draw.

Also aboard for Belarus to Bulgaria

Bulgaria

To me this felt like a 70's choreography (if you can call standing still and walking for a little bit choreography), it was a kind of ABBA style in the beginning, with two of the artists singing towards each other, and a very "Dallas"/80's way to divide the picture into three separate parts and other such effects.

We've now had four run throughs from Bulgaria, all very similar to me and vocally quite stable. Yair is over at the Israeli press conference not being a stupid boy - hopefully!

Estonia

I got winner vibes from this the first time I heard it. Elina's performance, with perfect vocals and the impressive dress effects (similar to what we have seen earlier, but with a few nice variants added) has not made those feelings go away.

What struck me during the second and third run through is how huge the stage looks in this performance. It suits the song/dress/Elin(a)!

Belarus

Just back in time to catch some of the lol-iness of Belarus, and my brownie, completely intact - equally amazing! In this performance, I actually thought Alekseev's back was missing at first! But it turned out it was just a rose wound. Such a relief.

First rehearsals: Belarus to Bulgaria

Bulgaria

My pre-opinion: This is the best vocal harmony of the contest, a bit like O'G3NE but with a slightly better song and a much more eager broadcaster. Are they eager enough to take it all the way (if it's even possibly with this song)? Let's see.

First run-through: Similar to last year, a lot of quick camera changes and split screens. Venetian blinds Power Point transitions. Not for epileptics. They seem to have thought this through and hired Christer Björkman's best staging directors, I'm sure the younger attention-deficit viewers will love this. The vocals sound higher pitch than the studio version.

Trey stops the second runthrough after five seconds and says he's sorry.

Actual second run-through: More focus on Zhana (who looks a bit out of place and wears too much lipstick). They're standing on three platforms that look like they're made of scaffolding (not sure if this is their final form), and change positions, a bit like Modern Folk Üçlüsü & Aysegül Aldinç. Overall, a solid rehearsal.

I've skipped the rest of it to watch the Israeli press conference, and no, I wasn't a stupid boy, although the songwriter wore a "stupid bøy" t-shirt, and this kind of diacritic misuse annoys me to no end, but it was fun and Netta owned it.

Estonia

My pre-opinion: When I first saw this, I kept waiting for something to happen and it never did. That's not exactly promising, and knowing the whole dress saga, not much is going to change. This kind of thing should have enough fans to take to Saturday though, one would think.

First run-through: As expected, an improved version of the Eesti Laul performance, in a darker, larger stage. The dress is centred in the round stage, which suits it well. Some nice patterns on it, including flowers and a swirly thing like ice cream n ithe end. Elina herself? She's good vocally, but I didn't notice her much, attention goes to the dress.

Second run: Much of the same, she's giving more effort and sounding good. Not much to say, this will do as well as this song can. My main reaction is that I really want ice cream.

Belarus

My pre-opinion: I've yet to see a good performance of this, but the one that matters hasn't happened yet and I'm not ruling this out completely. Alekseev has the face to appeal to a lot of teens, and the song is 'basic' in a catchy and comforting way, and if done right, may slip into the final in this whole mess. Either way, I'm very much looking forward to see what kind of prop they've come up with this year - can they top a holographic baby and a futuristic airboat?

First run: LOVE IT. Alekseev pulls out a rose, gives it to the camera(!), camera gives it to a Flamenco dancer. Flamenco dancer shoots it back using a crossbow, then breakdances. Press centre is in hysterics. This is Eurovision. Wait, there's more. This ends with him on a very high platform revealing a torn shirt in his back and fake blood (or is it crushed roses?). I don't even.

Second run: I'll try to pay attention to the singing this time, the visuals were so distracting I didn't even notice it. Really, the amount of shock was so big that I didn't even steal Elin's unattended brownie. Well it sounds okish, except that he's mumbling the words. Sorry, got distracted again by everything that's going on. His eyebrows have their own choreography on top of everything. And did I mention rose effects on screen? This is loltastic. I Love Belarus. 

Third run: The rose has lost its petals by now so he's just holding a stem, which is actually made of a metal cord with a rather sharp tip, and he nearly pokes himself in the eye. Watch it, Alekseev, we already have too many artists taken to hospital today!

Why third place could be enough to win

I hate predicting for the final. I am rubbish at it. While I can see in my mind which entries can qualify and which can't, I have a real blind spot about the final, particularly when it comes to the winner. I can construct in my mind a narrative for pretty much every entry as to why they won't win, and even why they just can't win. Which makes it rather difficult to construct a final scoreboard prediction.

In my mind, and in the minds of the betting public, there are three contenders. Even I can see that. And while I can find reasons for them all not to win, I really can't find reasons that any of the other 23 entries would end up on top of the scoreboard after tonight's voting. So let's take them one-by-one.

Italy
The favourite pretty much all season, and back to being the favourite as I write this, though only just. When it won Sanremo, I didn't see it winning Eurovision. I thought it was just too difficult to gain widespread support, both in terms of topic and being in Italian. But then, it did. Widespread support among Eurovision fans, true, but support on a level we haven't seen since Alexander Rybak, and possibly not even then.

But then I showed it to a fan-but-not-diehard-fan friend, who usually likes this side of Eurovision. She was underwhelmed. Is that going to be the reaction of much of the viewing public? After having seen the rehearsal clips, I worry that might be the case. The Sanremo performance was, for all its faults, genuinely fun, naively and innocently joyous, and that's missing from what we've seen on the Eurovision staging, as the backdrops try a bit too hard, the camerawork is too distant and Francesco is taking it one step too far into 'clever' and 'ironic'.

And there's always the eternal question that hangs over this entry like an anvil - will the juries just hate it?

Portugal
Almost the opposite, here. The live performance of Amar pelos dois on Tuesday night was absolutely hypnotic, and it's unsurprising that its odds have shortened dramatically in the last four days. But do televoters really vote en masse for a ballad in Portuguese? That's what I can't fully get my head around. Similarly, it's always been assumed that juries will go for Portugal - but often in the past they've ignored the more difficult ballads and those not in English, instead voting for more 'obvious' songs in English like Australia.

Bulgaria
A more obvious televote magnet and jury magnet, really. In a way, it's safer for both voting demographics, and unlike the previous two, there's nothing to turn televoters off or alienate jurors. So if it doesn't work for Italy or Portugal, for whatever reason, then Bulgaria is sitting pretty ready to mop up and take home the trophy.

In my mind, Bulgaria has a set amount of votes that it's definitely getting. Effectively, it's definitely coming third. The problem is, I don't know if Italy, Portugal or anyone else has the potential to go above them, or will that third place turn into the win?

[LIVE] Semi 2 : Dress Rehearsal 1 - live reporting

That's it for this rehearsal, people!
Was really fun to see how everything clicked together.

Me signing off!!

OUTRO
The 10 winning songs are being shown once more.

GOING THROUGH
-Israel
-Serbia
-Bulgaria
-Belarus
-Malta
-Ireland
-Austria
-Croatia
-Romania
and finally...
-Switzerland!

FAKE QUALIFIERS
Volodymyr announces Jon Ola Sand as the Mr. Miyagi of Eurovision. Does that also mean he can catch flies with his chopsticks? Before Eurovision once again turns into a cut-throat business, Volodymyr reminds the performers how amaaayzing they are and how great it is that they were allowed to perform in Kyiv.

INTERVAL ACT
The interval act is something dance-y. It's all very interpretative but looks slick because everyone is wearing black clothes with some red ribbon accent. In background of the predominantly percussion backtrack you can hear female voices singing Tatar-style melodic lines. Ukrainian horns warn us of Ruslana's arrival, but luckily for us, for the time being, she's not showing. Then it all ends.
Before we are officially introduced to the leftover finalists for next saturday, Timur gets to chat to Belarus.

VOTING COUNTDOWN
'They say time flies when you're having fun' Time was very slow today, I felt. Maybe there's a button to speed up time in a special app. The Eurovision App isn't the one though. After the countdown, they're talking to Macedonia.

VOTING REPRISE 2
Just before the second reprise Poland is being interviewed. Nothing earth shattering happening here...

VERKA II - The Rise
We now see Verka and mom live the independence of Ukraine, Dana International and eventually her taking part in Eurovision. Again, some of the years mentioned in the captions don't add up, but don't let that spoil your fun watching this.

VOTING REPRISE
Oleksandr and Volodymyr are bantering away as their life never depended on it. In any way the reprise soon follows.

HOST COUNTRY: UKRAINE
O.Torvald are bringing their show with gusto. They really enjoy performing out there. A bit screamy here and there, but I'm glad this type of song is in this year's final.

BIG FIVE: GERMANY
Same story for Germany in the camerawork department. But at least it starts really interesting enough. Sadly it quickly descends into dullness. Although I really like the stark architectural backdrop they've gone for, I feel a splash of ONE extra colour could've lifted it a bit. In this run there was new pyro too.

BIG FIVE: FRANCE
Alma is a bit breathy in the English bits during the first chorus. I feel that the camerawork could've been much tighter on Alma. The graphics are impressive in themselves, but do nothing to emphasize or help how amazing the song is. Instead it's almost off-staging the French entry.

ISRAEL
Imri's big hurdle throughout all of his rehearsals has been getting the vocals right. In this rehearsal he's much more in key. Occassionally 'just' getting away with sloppy singing. But dancing and singing at the same time is a challenge after all. If he repeats this in 6 hours, he'll be qualifying with ease.

ESTONIA-AH-A
What can I say, I love the 80s throwback. Koit seems to have finally mastered his cues and the entire thing is, to paraphrase mister Sofabet, a Telenovella fest. And they'll all repeat it on Saturday.

LITHUANIA
Victorija is wearing very long razorsharp white fingernails. If she would have a blackboard she could torture us all by scratching those of it. Instead she's singing her song. She sings it well though, and it's well performed. Well, as in, fully committed to annoy us for three minutes.

BULGARIA
I wish Kristian would stop hiding his mouth behind his microphone. Just keep it a tad lower. Still not sure of the line graphics that appear on-screen. I don't feel they add much. The more I hear the Bulgarian song, the more I feel it's a dull dirge. But he's quite good, being such a young singer.

BELARUS
The sound mix is off here once more. The male voice sounds much clearer. Kseniya is also a bit more shaky on the vocals. I would so love this to qualify, but they will need keep everything much tighter.

BREAK
Timur again singing his prepared script.

SWITZERLAND
That yellow... thing. Someone get me a bucket of anthracite gray paint now. Vocally she's fine, though in the high notes she clearly lacks power. Or confidence. I like this song in fact, but the dress isn't helping her. After the bridge, she tries channel Mariah, but sadly only Isaiah shows up. Luckily only us press center fanalists are the one subjected to it. Gosh. Not sure about this one.

NORWAY
Joust and his song 'Grab The Moment' is of course the streetcred that Eurovision has been craving ever since the mid 70s. However after Croatia it just seems a bit too mellow. The boys themselves are doing it fine, but I feel myself getting annoyed by the long fast sweeping cameracrane shots. Also not helping Norway's chances is the mumbling during the bridge. At this point in the show, it comes across as filler.

CROATIA
If San Marino was the appetizer in the car crash department, then Croatia is a full-on three course meal. But I adore it. Hope it qualifies, because I feel saturday night needs this. To be honest, I don't think Croatia's camerawork has improved since the last rehearsals. Still Jacques pulls it off. What 'it' is exactly, still remains to be determined.

SAN MARINO
They are very good! 'Nuff said.

IRELAND
Brendan is not doing well vocally. He sprinkles his performance with singing 'just' under the melody. The backing vocals are also all over the place. He was MUCH MUCH MUCH better during last rehearsal session. At least he's a way better body language performer than some of his age cohorts in this competition. It felt as something was wrong in the sound mix.

DENMARK
The backing vocals open the song a capella and the vocal balance is not there. The female voices in there just sound too shrill. Anja is moving professionally on stage, selling the song well. A bit slippery on some of the end-notes, but she's a great singer anyway. Songwise it's such a shame, just because she is so great. Pyro-curtain to end off the song.

HUNGARY
Joci Papai still looks a bit 'Blanche-y' when he starts his song. But I feel that he, just like Blanche, seems to have found his comfort zone on stage. And at the latest by the rap bit he's actually winning me over with his performance. Happy for him, but not feeling the song. But that's only me.

BREAK
Gosh. Timur's English is horrible. As he rambles off his Eurovision facts, he sings his phrases in a totally artificial manner. Luckily his bits are being kept to a minimum.

NETHERLANDS
Talking about vocal powerhousing. Although one of the sisters starts a bit early. The trio seem a bit more nervous than they have been throughout rehearsal week. And it's a bit audible in the voices. By the bridge they've all composed themselves and are vocally back on track. I seem to have noticed a few faintly flat notes. But nothing to be worried about.

ROMANIA
Finally! It's Romania. And nothing too soon. Not really fond of Alex's sleeveless jacket. Nor am I wild about the child letters that spell 'Y - o - d - e - l - i - t' on the big screen. It's harmless, unpretentious fun until the bridge, where they show that vocally they mean business. This is sailing through.

MALTA
We got the wrong credits. Those of Romania.
Claudia still has her breasts projected on the gigantic videowall behind her. This is Slovenia 2017 territory. Competent, yet somehow sleep inducing.

MACEDONIA
Macedonia's postcard has a bit 'NOT FOR AIR' message slapped over it, meaning this isn't the definitive version for the show tomorrow.
Backings aren't pitch perfect, but to the untrained ear they'll sound okay. I think Jana is doing well in this rehearsal. The entire package isn't in the top tier though.

AUSTRIA
Nathan is his impish self throughout the entire performance. I feel that he'll go full on energizer bunny once the arena is filled with a responsive audience. For now the rehearsal is almost faultless. A bit slidey on the wailing, but apart from that smiles all round.

SERBIA
Tijana starts and the sound mix in the press centre is off. The music sounds way too harsh. She looks great this rehearsal. I wonder if the hair will stay the same. Vocally on the cusp of being shouty, but still powerful enough. Ok, now she does cross that line into shouty territory. She ends her song with overemphasizing the last 'p' in deep.

INTRO
The host boys are on stage now. Oleksandr takes the word. And again the guys try to be funny. They'll get it right by tomorrow evening. Also, they're still heavily relying on their cue cards.

Next they 'freestyle' with some musical instruments. Oleksandr is quite good with his flute. Volodymyr likes to handle an accordeon.

Hahaha! They're Ukrainifying some of Eurovision's best known hits. :-)
Awww... a glitch in the sound tape and they have to restart. Volodymyr calls out for his accordeon. Henrik keeps his cool as always. They restart.

Oleksandr's flute is called sopilka. Whatever you say Oleksandr. But keep playing it please.
So, the Eurovision hits... first Euphoria, which is actually quite nice and epic in traditional music style. Next up is Fairytale, which already sounded quite folksy. So not too much of a stretch there. Third hit is 'My Number One'. Think the male choir in 'Moja Stikla'. That kind of singing.
Wow. Even 'Rise like a Phoenix' gets a treatment. It's nothing short of impressive! I like!

As this is the first dress rehearsal, they get to do this intro act a second time. As the production team sets everything up for the second go, Oleksander occupies himself with the logistics of swapping his musical instrument with the cue cards. Quite ingeniously he suggests that one of the Ukrainian grannies has them stuffed in their skirt. It sounds more ridiculous than it is, really.

During the second go, 'Rise like a Phoenix' gets pyro during the final.
A few more hiccups in the transitions - The choir has to leave the stage immediately. But that's what rehearsals are for. Did you know that you can vote using the Eurovision App? It's like a Eurovision party.

16:05
The show starts with traditional dressed young Ukrainian ladies similar to Semi 1. I 'think' they're different but I can't be sure.

16:02
Still waiting. What did I rush for?

15:57
Right. So a bit later than usual.
I'm by myself this afternoon, so it won't be a verbatim report. Only the stuff worth mentioning.
Think performance, camerawork and the likes. For a description of the postcards, well, you'll have to wait for a bit more than a day.

Day 7 - 2nd Run Through : BUL / LTU / EST / ISR

ISRAEL

The high notes are still one of the few things IMRI is not able to do. Look good in absolutely anything - check, dance - check, break hearts - check, sing most of his song - check, but high notes - no check there. Shame really since that is what people will remember, and not the majority of the stuff he does well. We need to also check what reprise IBA will choose but if they don't get this right, it could possibly be that Israel does not qualify. It is borderline at the best of times, but in this semi you need to be vocally spot on in order to be sure of a place on Saturday.

2nd Run - All that we can concentrate on now are those bad high notes. Even though the rest is not terrible - it's not a masterpiece of Eurovision art but it's not a disaster in the making - the bad notes are all that we can hear. There is a battle brewing and the strom clouds are coming in!

3rd Run - Not even pyro is helping this. Yes, I have written it. Pyro has not actually saved the day. I feel dirty and need a shower after that. IMRI is smiling but you can tell on his face he is not happy. Did he not know earlier he cannot reach the notes he's trying?


ESTONIA

Koit's wearing a different jacket than on Tuesday while Laura seems to be in the same frock. The two are singing well and are matching eachothers' melody quite nicely. They are also finding the camera's which is an improvement but Koit is still quite robotic in his acting. It's not too distracting however and we can live with it. The two are making more of an effort after they find themselves (in Verona) to look more like a couple rather than two people who just bumped in the street. Unlikely to stay in the semi.

2nd Run - The camera didn't find Laura in the beginning. Great start! Other than that though, all fell back into place and another great rendition of a wonderful song and a good stage show.

3rd Run - Another good performance. People are still giggling at Koit's acting but I think now it's more their issue than his. He's not laughably terrible, just a bit stiff. If you see the people who are laughing I very much doubt they would be any better.


LITHUANIA

Everything is exactly the same as the first rehearsal. Dresses, cameras and lighting. Also the feelings that get produced when listening to this song. Everything is exactly the same. I know some people actually like this, but even though Lithuania has many times been the country that I got wrong - when I thought it would fail it qualifies, when I thought it would qualify (due to being wrong before) then it fails ... - but this year I cannot see this having a hope of getting through which is a sad thing especially when they had such a long selection process and had a couple of decent choices available in it. Oh well, you reap what you sow I guess.

2nd Run - It happened. It ended. We applauded (internally).

3rd Run - I apologise, nature called, I answered. I've been told not much has been missed however.


BULGARIA

Kristian changed the white oversized t-shirt which he wore on the first rehearsal with, well, something we can't see. All we know is that the white is not showing any more. Forgetting the hype that has been created around this entry, although the singing is very good, the staging and camera work is not giving chills. Kristian being on stage by himself just seems to make the song lose something. A few dancers or elements from the music video would have gone down well but this just appears to be a nice song with a flat presentation. Could this be losing the "top of region" spot?

2nd Run - A couple of changes have been made and they seem to work better but it's not suddenly become a super attention grabber. Bulgaria will not need to worry about qualifying but I doubt it be giving a real run for top place come Saturday. A strong top 5 contender however.

3rd Run - And this was much of the same. You'll see the clip online - let us know what you think.

Day 4 - BLR-BUL-LTU-EST-ISR

ISRAEL

Arms!

Imri is in black (or rather translucent), singing just about adequately. Not as much choreography as I was expecting. Two dancers and some backing singers.

More literal graphical interpretation for the 'walking on stars' and 'hour glass' parts. And Imri on the back LED breaking into pieces.

It's rather underwhelming. Nowhere near as much impact as Golden Boy. Someone here even mentioned a word to send fear into all Israeli supporters: "Tooji."

The jury final will be quite key here. If he sings like today, he will be punished.



ESTONIA

Staging is a mix of the Eesti Laul performance and Stig & Elina. Koit was a tad lost with some of the choreography on the first run-through.

Koit's acting skills haven't improved but I really don't think he's trying. It is a rehearsal after all. This should be fine once it all comes together.

Better for each run through. Laura in particular was very good.


LITHUANIA

Essentially the NF performance here, in red and black with some pyro graphics at the end.

Very grating vocals.

Poor things don't even have Georgia to vote for them.


BULGARIA

More blue lights, but with some rain effects. Kristian in black with white shirt.

Actually no, it's mostly black and white and he is swishing his hands about, so think there will be more stuff happening that we're not seeing yet, a la Dami Im.  At one point there are a few squiggles. It's still a work in progress.

Vocals fine.

Hmm, I think we were all expecting to be wowed and it's...just nice. Should be safe for a top 5 finish though.


BELARUS

The return of white clothes and blue lighting. They are standing on a boat. Not really sure why.

Shots of various buildings on the backdrop, giving the effect they are flying slalom on their boat. Maybe it's a plane?

They dance a bit towards the end, distracting from the repetitiveness. Vocally solid.


***
The after-lunch session. Let's see how much they show us in the press centre...

Day 6 - Australia, Slovenia, Bulgaria

Bulgaria

The song starts with a very very close close up of Poli's face. Almost like Trijntje last year. Her lips are dark blue. Has she been sucking on Rykka's hair?

There are no chipmunk vocals in the song now, it's all been replaced by the flute. And vocally they are all singing quite well. But the chorus doesn't quite sounds as "big" vocally as in the studio version.

I like this performance though. She pulls off owning the stage all by herself, and it's effective when the backing singers join her at the end. They really look like they're having a lot of fun.

Slovenia

It's visually quite pleasing. The stage has nice colours and ManuElla looks good. Not sure why she puts her hands together as if she's praying during the Aliyev-parts though.
Vocallt it's fine. The male pole dancer is there but is quite disconnected to ManuElla.
I suspect this performance won't be enough to make this stand out. Its innthe middle of a segment of three entries with female solo singers. And a segment of four songs in a row with singers who are (mostly) alone on stage as their backing singers are mostly hidden. And between those songs, Slovenia's staging probably is the least memorable, even if it's pleasant enough.

Australia

The staging is even better today. It's a lot brighter and the holograms work better.

Last time I watched thia rehearsal I couldn't hear the sound very well. But today I'm seated at a better location. Which made me notice that she's actually a bit out of tune here and there. And her facial expression doesn't really change at all during the song, so ahe doesn't look like she's enjoying herself. Hopefully both of that will change once she's performing for real.

Day 6 - After Break: Ireland, FYR Macedonia, Lithuania, Australia, Slovenia, Bulgaria

BULGARIA
A great performance! Poli is playful with the camera and knows what she needs to do to gain the attention of the viewers. The errors that have happened (and there was a couple) where all technical in nature - mainly bad camera angles which either cover half the view or show the camera person walking accross the stage. The backing dancers come out as they did in the first rehearsal but this time they are clad in black. Unfortunately no light-up chevrons for them however.


SLOVENIA
Hope and Glory are still trying to escape but seem quite stable where they are. The stage seems to have changed however there are still undertones of blue and pink. We had to stop the first run through but the second one went through fully. Not much to comment about this apart from the dancer is hot as but even though his talent is great, it is not going to help them get through. They are just above the Swiss in the betting odds, and there is a good reason why.



AUSTRALIA
Dressed in the same dress as the first rehearsal, this went quite well apart from the fact that Dami needed help to get off the box. However, even thorough this misshap, her voice did not break at all which shows her professionalism. Waiting to see what happens in the next two.

The holographic images still do not work since they are being mistimed by Dami. We can still see the guys taking her off the podium but hopefully there is another camera angle which hides what is happening on stage.

In the third run-through not only do we see her being taken off but also we see the podium itself being quickly rushed off stage back. We were not supposed to see that - althogh it was very entertaining for the gathered press.



LITHUANIA
After two false starts, both of which were technical, we had one full go. Donny's hair is a bit, well, interesting - I wouldn't personally choose it. Donny is wearing some random jacket with a bunch of writing on it, again, not my choice. He does a summersault through some CO2 bursts - and nearly trips on the landing. This could go wrong on the night. Vocally he is quite flat but it could be that he is just saving himself.

The second run-through and he has a different jacket. Not that it was very much better but still better than the first. Although it is expected to qualify, it is unlikely to be high up on the right hand side of the board.

The third run-through and we have yet another jacket, this time white leather. Out of the three we've seen, this is the best however would have preferred black.




FYR MACEDONIA
Staged beautifully, Kaliopi is wearing a mainly black dress with a white flowy underskirt. Four backing vocalists to her right and a drummer to her left (remember, mirror image if you're looking at her). Much use of the spotlights to a great effect. For the chorus this changes to tones of red and orange. We know however that the Macedonian team is perfectionist and they probably will be looking at this, going through it with a fine toothbrush in order to piont out any perceived inaccuracies. Kaliopi however is also saving her voice a bit, consciously deciding to not try and catch the high notes even though we know she can do so with ease. She is not hitting the money-makers alight with qualifying expectations and I would tend to agree but it is definitely not a showing due to her part but rather the fact that there are other, better songs in this semi final.

Ooh! Something happened mid-song of the third run-through. Kaliopi therefore has a fourth run though, we therefore assume the issue was technical rather than the fault of the delegation.
 


IRELAND
Not too much different from the first rehearsal. Unfortunately I do not think this will be the year that we will be seeing the Irish colours on the Saturday stage. Vocally Nicky is not the best and although the staging is good enough there is nohing that would make me want to vote for this song rather than any other which has before it. I don't think it would make too much of a difference to Nicky's carreer however maybe it will make RTÉ rethink their selection process. In fairness however, they have tried letting the public select the song, and done an internal selection this year so what they should be doing extra is really not for me to comment.

The not-press opinion - BUL, DEN, UKR, NOR, GEO, ALB, BEL

Quick overview
Two great rehearsals from Ukraine (already shows in the betting odds) and Belgium (biggest improvement). Bulgaria and Norway delivered with neither positive or negative surprises. I'm reading negative comments on Poli's outfit but in the actual performance it's quite okay. Georgia made a good impression and their camera effects allow them to keep their hope intact. Albania was mediocre and static and Denmark was overly boring and with vocal issues.

Belgium

Aha. Much dance. She appears with 4 dancers, 2 males 2 females and they walk towards us as the stage is filled with yellow circles and many colours, but not blue! The circles are more like small suns (red in the centre). There is a lot of things happening; the dancers stand on two pairs of stairs as Laura really rocks it! She is dancing either alone or together with the dancers in a pyramid shape. Vocally she manages to keep it going, with some few weak notes, because of being out of breath. The stage is yellow-orange the whole 3 minutes. She is great during the bridge ("Come on, Stockholm!"). The dancers recede to the left side of the screen and join her for a quick little dance move as it ends. Good reaction from the centre. She was really good. It was hard writing about this, there's really a lot going on, but it's not too much somehow.

Had to watch this closer to the screen carefully and update you after I organise my thoughts. The best parts are when she's singing and the backing singers&dancers are around her. It comes across very natural and fresh. This time she added another line to the bridge as she was walking down the catwalk to get her final position ("I want to see all of those hands!"). The camerawork is also well thought out, with all the important moves being captured and shown nicely. Vocally... she strains quite a lot of notes, she was worse than the first time. Maybe this won't play much role during the performance. I couldn't tell if they have another backing singer hidden somewhere.

Same again. Very up-lifting. The choreography is very complicated and she is doing around three quarters of what the dancers do. The little ending dance is really cool and should look great with the audience.

Summary: Great performance, making the small vocal problems secondary. Also, she doesn't really miss any notes or have any bad moments, the only issue is that she sounds very strained sometimes (and also looks that way in a few cases). It's a pity this comes after the similarly coloured Albania, because otherwise it would be even more obvious how much it stands out from the other very similar backgrounds. In conclusion, they 've really lifted this two classes above what it was and they are totally qualifying. One of the brightest rehearsals of the week, for sure.

Albania

Her mic is muted and the music stops after 10 seconds. She is wearing a white jacket, with a floral blouse underneath and black pants. Could that be the real outfit? She holds the mic in her right hand, standing in the centre of the stage interacting (well) with the camera. She's totally static. The floor has some yellow dots (stars?). The vocals seem to be an issue during the high notes in the first chorus. A quick shot of the backings (the stage position of which I can't really spot). Better but not flawless vocals in the second chorus, while the backings are doing some "ooh-ohh"s (or are they "moo-moo"s?). And then it ends. Meh.

I've come to like the outfit. Some (maybe too many) hand moves in the first verse. This time I spotted the backings on her right side. Again problems with the high notes in the chorus. She's all alone in those. Literally, she is standing in the same position at the centre of the stage for 3 minutes. The stage is also quite static, with just some minor parts regularly changing from the usual yellow/gold colour to purple/blue. Not much else to write about this.

Watched it closer this time. I don't understand why such a static performance was not matched with a microphone stand.

Summary: Similar staging to last year, a bit worse song, a bit better singer. She has her good camera interaction to go for her. But then, everything else about it is really toned-down. As vastly different from preceding Georgia as it may be, I doubt it will make an impact to the average viewer/jury member.

Georgia

There's something. They are using camera effects that deform the picture (imagine deforming mirrors in an amusement park). It is certainly interesting to say the least. Apart from that, black and white turning to pink and blue, a typical staging with three guitar players, one being the singer and a drummer. He throws the hat and nothing much happens during the faster part, except a total epilepsy alert with yellow, light blue and green beams of light all over the stage. More camera effects and then it suddenly ends in pink and light blue lights.

The deforming effect is better implemented this time. Serious epilepsy alert during the fast part. Then, for the instrumental, the camera turns to a pan from above, showing pink patterns (square and diamond shapes). The ending is extremely abrupt. I'm not sure it will look good with the audience, as the fast part gives in to a very slow and motionless ending.

Nothing different. A bit painful for the eyes to watch 3 times in a row.

Summary: They have come up with something interesting and that's progress. I don't think anything like this has ever happened on the ESC stage at least, so it is quite original. All the visual noise distracts from the audial noise, but I'm not sure that's enough for someone to vote for them. It's good that they are trying and they managed to at least not get ruled out after this rehearsal.

Norway

Here for her second run. I expected this to be the same as in the NF, but it's not. She starts in a white dress, slightly glowing in the bottom. A dancer is to her right, about 5 metres away. They are standing on square platforms. Agnete leaves her own at the end of the verse and sings the chorus in generally close shots, while the dancer is visible to her right in the background. Perfectly finds the camera every time. The stage is blue with white light beams filling it during the chorus. The bridge is really good, as the camera slowly approaches her before leaving her during the high note. More white light beams and a star pattern on the floor. Really good vocals. The end is simple, with just her in the middle of the stage. Missed when/if the dancer left the stage.

The squared platforms have small white lights on them. A small Georgia 2015 Final problem, as the dry ice drowns both Agnete and the dancer. I do believe that the act might be relevant to her condition, as the dancer acts weirdly, in response to Agnete's moves. More dry ice during the ending. She was a bit tired vocally this time, however she looks comfortable and it's very pleasant seeing her happily smiling after it's over.

Summary: I've liked it from the start and I'm positive to the change in the staging. Even though it's not as impressive from the first moment now, it is much classier and fits the song better. Also, no way this will come across as cheap, like an actual prop might have been. She's good with the camera and there doesn't seem to be any problem of different nature with her. I hope she does well, she both needs it and deserves it.

Ukraine

Wait, is this Zlata? Similar hair and pose for the beginning. After the first few lines in total black, some colour finally on-stage! She is standing on a flower-shaped graphic with yellow, green and other colours. For the second verse it turns red and the backdrop is black-blue with medium-large red shapes (supposedly blood drops). The camera moves really slowly. The wow moment comes for her shout. The red shape slowly goes colourful again and during the high note it quickly becomes white and rises, creating a tree/fountain effect in the backdrop. Very very impressive! The end shot is just her, as the backdrop has turned dark again. Vocals perfect, I have a feeling she held back for the high note though.

Second run and some more effects for the first few lines. It appears there is a watery effect behind her in a light shade of blue (almost turqoise). Not entirely fitting, but attractive to the eye from the first second. The way she slowly moves her body and the way the camera follows that move is magical. The high-note effect is clearly a tree (yellow branches with blue flowers at the very ends). End shot of her almost smiling and looking beautiful.

More of the same. The watery beginning is more like a square water box that she's walking out from. The flower pattern is yellow in the centre, blue-green points in the circumference and red endings (representing Ukraine bleeding, I may guess?). Not holding back vocally at all this time. The backings are good as well. The tree is visibly collapsing in the background towards the end, before the final shot.

Summary: This has reached the peak of what was expected from them. Graphics were stunning and she connected with them and the camera in an excellent way. Predictions are tough this year, but I can't see this missing top-5. Could be winning the semi as well.

Denmark

Everyone here is delighted, as the song first doesn't start and then gets cut exactly when the chorus kicked in! Well, it finally starts again and they are there with the white neon microphone stands. Vocally some problems in the chorus (at the high parts). Oh, the stage is as blue as it has ever been, by the way. Seems it is an identical performance to their NF, with roughly the same camera angles as well. For the last chorus they are using the catwalk, but totally not to the rhythm. Very weird dancing while on the final square of the catwalk which shows expanding squares. Very unimpressive and very similar to Ireland, bar the microphone stands and x3.

Second run and trying to find something more positive to right. Well, the vocals are getting better and the ending makes a bit more sense, though still very sudden. They smiled somewhat more as well.

Final chance for them to improve. Vocals keept getting better but they are still not convincing. At times they are covered by their backings. They are good at making all the camera angles. But then again they've been doing this since February. Some more jumping during the last part after the catwalk.

Summary: Really boring, identical to the NF performance and average vocals. This is pretty much everything about it. A huge downpoint after Bulgaria. They need to fix their dancing after the catwalk part, it's very out of rhythm and they are not synchronised at all. Lots of issues and lack of energy.

Bulgaria

Close up shot of her and she is wearing huge ear jewellery in her left ear that reminds me of the "accelerate" signs in racing games. She's dressed in black and her hair drops to her right side only. The shot widens and the backdrop is mainly blue/black but filled with little starry dots (think the 2010 logo) so it is lighter. Poli is all alone on stage, accompanied only by figures dancing on the backdrop during the chorus. She does a weird move with her legs every time the chorus starts (there must be a name for it, but the only thing I can compare it to is the Las Ketchup last move during the chorus of Asereje). Some close-up shots seem to work well on-screen, although she doesn't hit most of them. For the last chorus, the backings appear from the right side of the stage and join her as they sing together. What initially looked as knee protectors turns out to be white neon lights that are turned on for the last part. It ends a bit abruptly, but people here react very well.

The dancing is not "diva-esque" at all, rather comes across as simple and contemporary. Better camera-work and manages to hit all the shots. Vocals are really good as well, a bit breathy at parts, but that's reasonable. They are trying for the backings to be a bit lower in the mix (both in volume and in tone). Not sure this works that well, although it gives an interesting result. The end pose is left fist in the air for Poli and the five backings placed in a straight line.

The close-up shot a bit different this time, with her having closed eyes and not openin them until the shot changes. Don't like this change, cause it takes too much time for her to have the first eye-contact with the camera. Oops, a backing came in one sec too early. Some green lights this time, before and during the second verse (not sure if they were there before). It's impressive that the dress is that long and complicated and yet doesn't bother her dancing, actually helping her do some moves. The backings are again low in the mix in the last part, which is short but again I'm not really sure if it's correct, it steals some of its power.

Summary: Great first rehearsal, it appears they've managed all they wanted to achieve. Everything about it is very thought through and yet avoids coming across as too calculated. It lacks the 'wow' factor though. The lighting knee/shoulder/thigh-protectors thing is not so noticeable, certainly not after having seen it once already.

(A much more crowded fan zone at the press centre today. Sitting a bit farther away from the screen compared to other days, so expect me to miss even more!)

Preview rehearsals Day 4

Tomorrow we move into the last day of the semi-finalists' first rehearsals. With just eight countries left to rehearse on stage, we're getting a good impression of how this year’s contest is shaping up.

Highlights in this morning's session include Bulgaria, who take to the stage at 10:40, and we’re looking forward to seeing how they’ve managed to adapt the highly produced sound of their studio version to a live vocal. Malta’s first rehearsal was slightly controversial, as their backing track contained what sounds like processed vocals – will Bulgaria be the same?

Right before lunch we’ll have one of the contest's favourites, Ukraine. We’re never sure what to expect from Ukraine – they’d probably get along fine just repeating the national final performance, but we're talking about a country that in past years have brought a hell machine and a man in very tight trousers spinning in a hamster wheel (#hamsterbutt). Even when they last brought a ballad, Ukraine stuck a sand artist next to the singer, so who knows what we're going to get at 12:20.

Following lunch will be the rehearsal of Norway. As reported earlier this week, Agnete has been struggling with mental illness – she told Norwegian newspaper VG that she has struggled with the condition for a number of years, and it is this that has led her to pull out of all public appearances prior to the contest. Our thoughts are with her, and we hope that her recent problems won't affect her performance. 'Icebreaker' is seen by many here as a borderline qualifier, and NRK have told reporters they aren't repeating the MGP performance, so it'll be interesting to see what they have in store.

And after Norway we have what's looking like a long two hours, with the rehearsals from Georgia, Albania and Belgium. All three were looking like outsiders until the running order was announced, when Belgium climbed into a qualifying position with the bookies, but frankly we'll be glad of the early finish this afternoon. See you in Euroclub!

Semi-final 2: Where's the value?

Tuesday was an interesting night for those who like to gamble on the Eurovision Song Contest, with a few surprises, at least statistically: the Netherlands qualifying for the first time since 2004, plus a blanket failure by the ex-Yugoslav nations, with none of Slovenia, Montenegro, Croatia or Serbia making it to the Saturday night show.

So where's the value in the betting markets for tonight's second semi-final? In theory, it should be a much less predictable affair, with an interesting mix of voting countries and musical styles to choose from. Despite this, the qualification market shows a clearer picture at the top of the scoreboard: the available prices for Norway (1.02), Georgia (1.04), Azerbaijan (1.05) and Greece (1.07) suggest that there are four very clear favourites to reach the grand final, and it's hard to argue with that. Interestingly, next in line is Malta at 1.36, followed by Israel and fan fave San Marino at 1.4.

At the other end of the market, Latvia (5.5) and Macedonia (5) are the clear outsiders, but again, it's difficult to find too many counterarguments there. More interesting are the prices for the hipster-friendly Hungary (3.8), Switzerland with its potentially huge Salvation Army televote (2.95) or even perpetual qualifier Romania (2.55), whose singer Cezar is unquestionably ridiculous but is blessed with an optimal draw, closing the semi-final with the bombastic and spectacular "It's My Life" (even if it's spectacular for all the wrong reasons). Any of these bets could represent good value - though I'm most tempted by the 2 that's available for Bulgaria, represented by the experienced Elitsa & Stoyan in a semi-final that's full of potentially friendly countries.

On the non-qualification side, if you don't buy into the Valentina Monetta hype, you can still find a healthy 3.2 if you believe that San Marino will fail to make it to the final. Finland's "Marry Me" is a hugely western-friendly song and performance, and 3.25 says that the rest of Europe will turn its back to a sufficient extent. But I'm perhaps most drawn to the 3.4 that's available for Malta to fail to qualify - Gianluca hasn't been hugely impressive in rehearsals and I'm not convinced that the friendly and cheerful vibe of the song comes across well enough on stage.

While the markets are convinced that there are four clear qualifiers, there's less of a consensus when it comes to the winner of the second semi-final. Norway is currently leading the way at 2.8, with Georgia next in line (4.32). For me, however, a Thursday night audience with this voting demographic could easily vote in numbers for Koza Mostra from Greece, and a price of 10 for them to win the semi-final seems well worth a look. Alternatively, if you want a real punt, Latvia is available for a mere 228. Anybody...?

The top 3 finish market opens up some interesting possibilities, although (as with the winner market) bets won't be settled until after the full results are revealed, presumably in the early hours of Sunday morning. Here, Greece is still decent value at 2.12, but I'd be looking at some interesting outsiders instead. For example, Israel is the only song in the "dramatic female ballad" genre tonight (unless you count the first two minutes of San Marino), so it could easily suck up a lot of jury votes. If you think that's enough for them to reach the podium positions, a price of 9 is currently available. Similarly, the Icelandic ballad could cut through the field and take points from everywhere - a quite generous 13 can be found for Eythor and "Ég á líf". Alternatively, you could play it ultra-safe and take the 1.66 that's available for Georgia to finish in the top 3 - surely a banker?

Finally, let's take a look at the head-to-heads that are available from Bwin this time. Most interesting to me is San Marino vs. Israel, where Israel is seen as the outsider at a price of 1.95! I find it hard to conceive of a situation where Moran Mazor is outscored by Valentina Monetta, so that's a very tempting bet. By contrast, the San Marino vs. Greece match-up has Greece as the favourites, but 1.50 is still a very welcoming price for the more committed gambler. And if I'm tipping Greece as the semi-final winner, I suppose I have to highlight the 2.40 that's available if you think Koza Mostra will finish higher than Georgia's Sophie & Nodi.

Those are just a few of the options available to you if you feel like having a little flutter on tonight's proceedings, anyway. Whatever you do and however much you decide to bet, have a great evening!

Some thoughts on tonight's semi-final

I watched the jury performances last night next to Sild while he was blogging, and I have to say that I think it's one of the hardest semis to call in a number of years. So much so that I genuinely think that absolutely anybody could - there's literally no act I would automatically discard.

Oh, and as I sit writing this in our apartment close to the Folkets Park here in Malmö, I can hear some guy teaching kids a dance routine to the instrumental version of Montenegro on the big stage there. Only in Sweden.

1. Greece - not my cup of tea at all, but they're great on stage, and we know how strong the Greek results have been in the semi-finals.
2. Azerbaijan - it's Azerbaijan, obv. Only the early draw stops this winning the semi. Oh, and here's a video of Farid jogging - keep your eyes up!


3. Iceland - I wasn't convinced about this until I saw it at the dress rehearsal yesterday, but there it was absolutely amazing. A beautiful atmosphere and one of the best vocals of the night, supported by an excellent choice of recap clip at the end.
4. Israel - complete jury fodder; probably less appeal for televoters, based solely on the fact that it's sung in Hebrew, but it's a strong performance of a good song, and should be safely through to Saturday.
5. Norway - a very good song, and one that I find very difficult to rate as I love it so much Am I overrating it because of my love, or underrating because I'm paranoid about it and see the tiniest flaw?
6. Georgia - mechanical, cold, effective. Sailing through to Saturday night and probably getting the Georgian result when it gets there, but Sophie in particular will need to sing better on Friday to secure the all-important jury vote in the final.

A bit of a drop now to...

7. Finland - won't be loved by everyone, but Krista's really selling it and does sing well. Could be a loser on Saturday night, but should be safe for now.
8. Bulgaria - hated it until a couple of weeks ago, got into it a bit more while out running the other day, then saw the stage performance and remembered just how Elitsa in particular dragged Voda kicking and screaming into 5th place in 2007. More of that should see it safely through tonight.

Now a gap to the next four, which are all very close.

9. Albania - inaccessible and in Albanian, but it's a good song. And it's actually very effective on stage. On the other hand, I wouldn't be surprised to see it drop out, replaced by Armenia, though I doubt there's room for both to qualify.
10. Malta - I completely ruled Malta out the last two years. One time they came very close with a pretty terrible song, the other time they snuck through with a decent if slightly amateur song. That's the issue this time too. Based purely on the combination of song and performance, Gianluca should probably be out - I don't really find it makes the connection it needs on stage - but its friendly votes will probably jump it above the parapet.

11. Armenia - we've seen before that they can fail. Other than diaspora, I really don't see where this song's votes come from, even if I quite like it myself. Wouldn't be surprised to see it swap with Albania though.
12. Switzerland - close to the ones above, but without the friendly votes it drops out of the reckoning. Before this week I might have rated it lower, but with a good draw it somehow works quite well on stage.

A gap here to the ones I'm most willing to leave out - though as I mentioned, I wouldn't be shocked to see any of these qualify.

13. Latvia - I hope I'm right, at least. It's a decent opener, and gets the audience into the show, but who really remembers the warm-up act after the main performances have been on?
14. Romania - if this were Saturday night, I probably wouldn't rank Romania this low (or rather, I'd probably predict it about 14th out of a field of 26. But on a Thursday, when the majority of the televoting audience aren't completely hammered, and with a jury that's probably going to crush it, I have to put Romania.
15. Macedonia - it's a great song, I do love it, and I think its chances will really depend on if juries respect it, but my feeling is that most of the audience is just going to find it a little difficult and weird.
16. Hungary - I'm sad to do this, and maybe I'm just being overly critical and paranoid about its performance and chances, but I really didn't feel it connected at last night's dress rehearsal - and that's what this song really needs to do.
17. San Marino - Oh San Marino... Valentina sings well, but the whole performance just comes off a little amateur, and, to borrow a comment Martin made a month or so ago, it's just Sense tu with a fast bit at the end really, isn't it? I see no reason an audience should really go for this. On the other hand, with the automatic points we suspect it has from its friendly juries, being this low is probably unlikely - it's probably one of the least likely to actually come last, but also the least likely to qualify.

Probably completely wrong, and I'll actually feel sorry for several of the songs that don't qualify, whatever they are. Everyone's clearly put in a lot of effort and upped their game, and compared to Semi 1, the overall standard is clearly that much higher.

It's Eurovision today too!

Good morning! Well, I'm up and about at a rather ungodly hour, thanks to the bright sunshine and loud kids. We may have had a little bit of wine at Eurocafé last night (it's just around the corner from our new and swishy apartment, it'd be rude not to, really), and obviously ended up wrapped in blankets, tearing Eurovision Weekend leaflets up to make new words and/or putting Lou's head on mad cat. As you would.

We're getting one step closer to the big final on Saturday, and today we'll see who will join the six automatic qualifiers and the ten qualifiers from Tuesday on stage. I managed 8/10 in semi 1, and wasn't awfully shocked about the ones I missed - I thought both Serbia and Croatia were in danger after the rehearsals we've seen, and Belgium was very much the one I thought might push them out. Positively surprised about Lithuania, but several of us felt it worked much better on Tuesday than it has all week - it somehow managed to stand out.

As always, my own views on the songs will shine through to a certain extent, and definitely influence some of my predictions, but this is how I think the results will look tonight - not what I want:

1: GREECE - They do have a habit of winning semis, don't they? Might be voted down by juries, but I need something to put on top...
2: NORWAY - I really want to put this one first, but don't dare to. Don't wanna jinx it! Unlike many entries, I'd say this pretty equal chances with both juries and televoters. Possibly Norway's best entry ever...?
3: ISRAEL - She was great last night, which is what matters for the juries, and I'd say this is a very likely jury winner.
4: AZERBAIJAN - Still gives me gooseberries every single time, love it to bits. The act might come across as a bit over the top for the average Norwegian or Icelandic housewife, though.
5: ICELAND - Yami thinks this could win the semi based on last night's run-through, and I'm not really disagreeing. It's working very well on screen, and should appeal to juries and televoters alike.
6: GEORGIA - Not as good as it could've been, but it's just so according to the book that it's bound to do well. Not a winner in any sense, though - there's just not enough people that love this.
7: FINLAND - Stands out a mile, and certainly not for everybody (me included), but would be surprised if this misses out tonight.
8: MALTA - Sweet and happy - there's always an audience for stuff like this, even though I sometimes wish there wasn't.

This is where it starts getting difficult... None of the remaining nine would really shock me if qualified at this point - possibly apart from Latvia. I've had Hungary and San Marino in during most of the season, but it might be time to do some changes...

9: ROMANIA - About as mad as mad cat. I have no idea what to make of it and how viewers will respond, but it would be quite amazing if it was in the final on Saturday. My head says no way, but could it manage it, somehow?
10: HUNGARY - Not at all confident about it, it's just not connecting quite as it should, even if it's a fab little song, and a great backdrop on stage. So please, you in countries voting tonight, help me be right and put this through!

11: SAN MARINO - Might well qualify on jury swaps alone, seeing as we have pretty much all the usual suspects for that in this semi. But apart from in Malta (where I assume this could well have gotten their douze anyway - weird cheese in Italian sounds just up their alley), are the televoters going to go for it at all? I don't really think so, and especially with the new voting system, this might suffer.
12: BULGARIA - A horrible piece of noise to me, but it's coming together nicely on stage, and is different from everything else. Needs a KISMET sign.
13: ARMENIA - Good staging, average song, not too many friends in this semi... Armenia used to be a surefire top 10, but I think we'll have have our third final in a row without them.
14: ALBANIA - They're making the most of it, but I don't think it's enough.
15: MACEDONIA - I hope I'm wrong, but sadly, I don't think many out of Esma & Lozano's target group will 'get' this. And most of said target group got lost in semi 1, so...
16: SWITZERLAND - Would've had a much better chance if they were participating with their video. As it is, this comes across as dulldulldull, no matter how hard they try to convince us they're having a great time.
17: LATVIA - Not helped by an absolutely unimpressed audience close to the stage. Can't see neither juries nor televoters having any time for this after they've gone off stage - could we have our first zero since Aven romale?

So, do you agree or disagree? Correct me and/or give your own predictions below - and most importantly, enjoy the show tonight!

Jury Semi 2

We're getting ready to watch the second dress rehearsal of semi 2, nicely situated in front of one of the big screens in the press centre. With us is also a nice printout of mad cat.

We'll update the blog throughout, so watch this space!

And we are on, with what seems to be a philharmonic orchestra of dancers on stage. Not quite sure what that means, but then I'm not quite sure what's happeneing either, so... It turns a bit more street as the dancers literally slide off the stage and are replaced by bikers (Ola & Barbro?) and more dancing. They somehow manage to turn the stage into a laptop at some point, which looks a bit cool.

Petra shows up to welcome Europe, to which the band Europe (or HEAT or Generic Swedish Poodle Rock Band) briefly pop by, and she's in a rather hideous dress. It somehow looks like ballgown where someone decided to lift her skirt to have a look at her mad cat, so to speak.

LATVIA - Giraffes in their postcard? I might have to start to like this... The glittery boys seem even myre hyper than normally, which I guess makes sense, as they probably feed off the audience. But there's little doubt the audience don't care... The dreaded stagedive is indeed taken care of by stageworkers rather than the audience, and frankly, it looks shit. All in all it works quite well, and it's arguably the best possible draw for this, but I still can't see it happening.

SAN MARINO - Valentina Mousepadetta is looking particularly distressed today. Other than that, it looks pretty much like it has all week, and she's in good voice. The 02 San Marino caption in the bottom left seems to be double - was this case during Latvia too, I wonder?

MACEDONIA - It is still double for Macedonia, at least... Lozano has now lost his glasses (which have come in various shapes and colours over the last week), and is apparently so scared of dropping his earpieces that he's plastered them completely. He's actually looking quite dishy in a simple black suit, singing excellently and seems very sincere about it all. And Esma is Esma, of course. Great stuff, this - would be lovely to see them make it.

AZERBAIJAN - I love the second shot of this, where we start off with Farid in profile, and then he turns towards the camera. Sadly, he almost always misses the camera with a tiny smidgen each time - GAH. Vocally strong as always, and this is bound to do well.

FINLAND - Krista seems to have recovered from her cold, which is good for her, less good for us, that may have to suffer the constant dingdongs again. The backing singers have clearly done like me and visited the local hairdressers, and are now sporting some kind of 50s hairdos that Aliona Moo would defeinitely approve of. I thought she messed up the singing a little for the keychange, but not in a way that matters. There's pink confetti, pink kissing and a manic DIIING DOOOOONG at the end - this should be popular in the Northwest, but presumably far less so elsewhere.

Petra tries to be funny, but somewhat fails, when introducing Lynda Woodruff, who is now after Finland, for some reason - not between entry 13 and 14 like in the previous rehearsal.

Like in the 2008 postcards, the butterfly flags sometimes have us guessing what the next entry is, and we think the next one up is Peru.

PERU (or MALTA) - Gianluca looks cheerful, but nervous. Which might not necessarily work to his disadvantage, actually - it somehow makes him across as human, and the human factor and his boy-next-door charm is a big part of the appeal here, I assume. In that respect, it would come across as a nice breath of fresh air after Finland's madness, but that effect is somewhat spoiled by the break.

BULGARIA - The postcard features lots of drumming, unsurprisingly. And if I haven't mentioned it before, the postcards are great in general - especially with acts like this too, where we get an extra chance to get to know them outside of the 3 minutes on stage, and what they're all about. Which for Stoyan and Elitsa is clearly 'banging things'. For one that hates this, I think it comes across quite nicely - it's different, they know what they're doing, and the light-heavy stage gets to shine in all it's glory with lots of flashes along with the beat.

ICELAND - We're back in the black suit, which is a good decision, I think. The simple, but powerful, performance comes across great after the Bulgarian banging - I think I know where the Norwegian douze is heading, at least!

GREECE - The lead singer was struggling to find the right cameras when we first zoom in on him, which makes him look a bit befuddled for a moment. Finding several later on, though, to great effect, I certainly felt that he was looking right at me. And I wouldn't mind that... Great chemistry, and this is obviously sailing through, or maybe even winning the semi. One of the band members had some earpiece issues towards the end, making it bounce about like mad around him, but I doubt that will cost them anything.

ISRAEL - Not much to say about this compared to before, except that she's apparently stolen Zlata's massive butterfly ring! The drama! Good draw for this too after Greece, and absolutely nothing wrong with the singing. Juries should adore this, the question is the televoters - personally, I think quite a few of them will too.

ARMENIA - A massive COUGH or something appeared out of the blue during the first chorus, what the hell was that?! It didn't look like it came out of any of them... I think this is coming across very well considering the fact I find it a nothingness of a song. It seems sincere and 'proper', somehow - no butterflies, no giants, no pink kisses, just them doing what the should, and doing it well.

HUNGARY - ByeAlex is looking rather terrified and worried for some reason, and not just in a hipster-I'm-standing-here-in-my-hat-singing kind of way. The guitarist is loving it, though, and even got some cheers from the audience during a little instrumental break. Alex himself is finally finding some cameras throughout, to great effect, but I fear this might be a bit too introvert and, well, Hungarian for most other viewers than those in the Nordics in this semi.

NORWAY - Unlike Hungary, this is eye-contactastic. She's pretty much finding all the cameras, looking into them with the right mix of happiness and coldness, and even smiles at times. And thanks to her arms, and not to mention the stage and lighting, the moment when the first chorus kicks in is the moment of this Eurovision for me. If this doesn't qualify, I'll bite someone.

A break with an "interview" with "Farid" after Norway, and Petra suggests she will be talking to 'someone we don't know yet' - could it be Lys?

ALBANIA - The Albanians have been spotted at most of the parties over the week, so they're obviously making the most of their experience. And I have a feeling they wouldn't be too bothered about not qualifying either - they seem confident enough about what they're doing and who they are, and this, like Armenia, feels very real. Well done, lads!

GEORGIA - Calculated, cold, loud - and fecking effective. But lo behold - were they a bit off during the MASSIVE notes, or was that just me?

SWITZERLAND - We heard rumours they'd been told to not wear the shirts with the slogan on, but they're still in them, so that might have been all lies. Lead singer has lost his glasses, though. Maybe someone sat on them. There is some kind of charm in this, but I think it would've worked better with a shorter song. Or less clothes on the Gygax.

ROMANIA - Yikes, the dancers from under the blanket appears to be all naked and red. Doesn't really help that they look like they're in the middle of an orgy at some point... This is mental, ridiculous, red, horrendous, wonderful, and... qualifying...?!

Petra looks wonderfully bemused after Romania - is that why SVT put them on last?

San Marino goes for a pretty early bit of their song in the snabbrepris, which is a surprising choice. Some of the long shots used for Azerbaijan are also less effective, but the part of the song makes perfect sense. Bulgaria chose som random verse - why, dears? Well if it keeps them from qualifying, it's fine by me!

Petra seems to be flirting with Cezar in the greenroom, before sitting down with Moran Mazor to introduce the Eurovision history lesson. God, the 80s were amazing!

And we have a second recap, in which Valentina Monetta indeed throws her cape and we have a beat! Makes sense in a way, when there are two recaps, and you have two different songs...

Europe show up again, as Petra announces the final countdown. Silly, but I like silly :-)

Darin is cuuuute, btw. He starts off slow at the piano for his recent hit Nobody knows, but it quickly turns into the fab, well-produced pop track it is. On a different note, he appears to be wearing a Swarbriggs Minus Two t-shirt!

He's followed by Agnes, who's dressed in lots of flaring fabrics. Clearly an interval act aimed at the local audience more than the international, but as many broadcasters cut to ads anyway, that's makes perfect sense. And unlike the dancing in semi 2, it gives the audience something to cheer for. Which they do - judging by one of the screams when she finished, Adelén is there and liked it a lot.

And after having France, Spain and Germany waving from the audience, we have our random qualifiers announced:

Switzerland (Adelén liked that too)
Greece
Georgia
Peru
San Marino
Norway
Romania
Israel
Hungary
(Some great acting by the volunteers for the greenroom shots here)
Finland

I'll give you my prediction tomorrow, with a full ranking like I did for semi 2. Stay tuned!