All season, I've had a pretty solid selection of about five or six songs that definitely don't qualify from Semi 1. They were a group of songs for which I just couldn't see any road to qualification, and top (or bottom, depending on your point of view) of that pile was Georgia.
On the surface, it surely should have no chance. It's basically a combination of last year's Georgian entry, which came dead last, and last year's Armenian entry, which didn't exactly set the scoreboard on fire either. But... it's just so much better than either of those. And it's staged fantastically. So...
Am I the victim of having heard these songs too many times, and analysing them to death*? Should I stick to my original instincts? Or is it just possible that Georgia can defy the odds and make it to the final?
You know, what? I'm going to say yes. There's enough unpredictability in this semi-final, with its combination of weird, out-there shit and underperformed ordinariness, that actually I think anything could happen. Well, almost anything. Other than Montenegro qualifying, obvs.
So, prediction time:
1. Australia - I'm still very curious to see if Australia can maintain the jury love they're so notorious for, even when entering popera, which hasn't always gone down so well with juries in the past. If they can, I think they could be top of the pile tonight.
4. Cyprus - incidentally, these are the only four I'm willing to call as finalists with 100% certaintly. From here, there's an element of doubt, including even for...
5. Greece - I've been unconvinced by every clip of this I've seen in rehearsals. It should easily be strong enough to make it through in this field and with this running position, but I don't have high hopes for Katerine in the final.
6. Slovenia - pleeeeeease be good.
7. Czech Republic
8. Poland - I've been betting against it all season, and I'm slightly going against my better instincts here, but from reports in rehearsals, I think they have a chance of making it through. And it's my favourite, so I'll be delighted if they do.
10. Serbia - basically Serbia are coming between 9th and 11th like they have in every semi-final for the last few years.
12. Estonia - I'm hoping this is the case, at least. It's so bland and ordinary that it really doesn't deserve to qualify. If it does, it's obvious bottom 5 fodder on Saturday night.
13. San Marino - it's just too shit. Let's not forget that Triana Park managed to come last, from last.
16. Portugal - Conan commits the ultimate sin in Eurovision - he really gives you no reason why you should vote for this.