Tuesday, 14 May 2019

Predicting the first semifinal

As opposed to the fish, I'm still up in the cold Norden. But in spite of neither being by a pool side nor in Tel Aviv, I've also tried to get an impression of the rehearsals and the performances through the videos, blogs, the messageboard, etc. Especially from Shi over at Escgo, whose blog has been both entertaining and interesting to read.

So I've decided to make some sort of prediction. Please take into consideration that it will probably be all sorts of wrong, but after some thinking I've decided to go for a mix of expected qualifiers and some surprises. Because we always do get some unexpected results. I feel like this year the surprise might be that Belarus makes the semifinal top 10. Why? Even though reports from rehearsals say that the performance is a bit of a mess, I can imagine it picking up both semi-high jury and televoting points from a couple of countries, and some mid scores from others, based just on the fact that it really is quite a catchy song and stands out pretty well among all the slower entries surrounding it.

Poland has really grown on me recently, and their performance seems like it's very likeable. This coul indeed mean they'll quality, and I probably will be hoping they will after seeing the show tonight. But at the same time... it's a tricky song. It might as well be the kind of entry that fans love, but neither juries nor average televoters do. So in the end I decided to opt for a non-qualification. Just like with Georgia, which many people seem to think will make it. But effective performance or not... it's still the same song. I'd also live it if San Marino qualified, but it doesn't seem like the performance really measures up. So I'm leaning towards it ending up about 11th.

However, I do think Serbia might just make it, ending up somewhere in the lower top 10 in the semifinal. Nevena has delivered in the rehearsals, and there might still be a lot of appreciation for these kinds of ballads in Europe even 15 years after their heydays. And Estonia might scrape through simply by default for being pretty "normal" in this bunch. Though I wouldn't at all object if they didn't.

01. Cyprus - Tamta - "Replay" 
02 Montenegro - D mol - "Heaven" 
03 .Finland - Darude feat. Sebastian Rejman - "Look Away" 
04. Poland - Tulia - "Fire of Love (Pali się)" 
05. Slovenia - Zala Kralj & Gašper Šantl - "Sebi" 
06. Czech Republic - Lake Malawi - "Friend of a Friend" 
07. Hungary - Joci Pápai - "Az én apám" 
08. Belarus - ZENA - "Like It" 
09. Serbia - Nevena Božović - "Kruna" 
10. Belgium - Eliot - "Wake Up" 
11 .Georgia - Oto Nemsadze - "Keep on Going" 
12 .Australia - Kate Miller-Heidke - "Zero Gravity" 
13 .Iceland - Hatari - "Hatrið mun sigra" 
14 .Estonia - Victor Crone - "Storm" 
15 .Portugal - Conan Osiris - "Telemóveis" 
16 .Greece - Katerine Duska - "Better Love" 
17 .San Marino - Serhat - "Say Na Na Na"

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