Predicting Semi 1

Wow, this is tough. Now, I actually don't feel Semi 1 is as loaded as many others seem to think, and that's reflected in my struggles to predict.

I think there are four absolutely nailed on qualifiers, and those are almost certainly the Top 4 too, head and shoulders above the competition, and that's Czech Republic, Israel, Estonia and Cyprus.

At the other end, I only have three absolute not-qualifiers (and that's where much of the feeling about this being a strong semi comes from) - Iceland, Albania and Macedonia are all completely chanceless in this field.

Other than those four at the top though, I really struggle to find other entries that feel like clear qualifiers - in ranking them all in likely finishing order, I certainly struggled to find anything that feels worthy of fifth place. In fact, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Top 4 take the vast majority of the big points, leaving the other qualification places a bit of a crapshoot.

I've ended up choosing three entries that feel very likely to qualify, though probably at the lower end of the Top 10, and that's Azerbaijan, Bulgaria and Armenia. Azerbaijan feel very on the edge, and X My Heart would probably struggle if it came from anywhere else. Bulgaria feels safer, because we know how much Bulgaria care this year, and they're surely determined to make sure their entry qualifies. And Armenia is strong and competent, with a late draw that should garner sufficient votes.

Going back to the bottom end, I'm also eliminating Croatia - despite strong rehearsals, I just don't feel the song is there. The same goes for Switzerland, whose odds have shortened dramatically in the last 48 hours, but are still coming with a mediocre song and a huge slice of blandness. I also don't really see who votes for Belgium (either juries or televoters) unless they suddenly manage to inject a whole slice of atmosphere into the performance tonight.

That leaves six songs in the middle, fighting for three qualifying places - that's Lithuania, Belarus, Austria, Greece, Finland and Ireland. I'm going out on a limb and calling Ireland as the most likely qualifier of these, and I also think there's potential for Top 5 or so in the semi if they get everything right. At the other end, I think Belarus is the least likely, with a performance likely to alienate juries. I've been betting against Lithuania all season, and I'm still not really convinced, but for now I'm going to allow the opinions of my colleagues in the press centre to sway me into calling it a qualifier. Which leaves one place.

Greece fails to excite me, and I don't really see who votes for it outside its immediate target audience of neighbours, diaspora, jury authenticity-afficionados and fans who pine for the 90s. But then the Norwegian Adresse Lisboa panel called it as their favourite. Or rather, joint favourite with Austria, which I've always found very bland and ordinary, with a performer sorely lacking in any of the personality needed to lift the song. And then there's Finland, which I've always found incredibly hard to call - more than anything else it's really appealing to the relatively new spectrum of the Eurovision audience, the X Factor/Twitter side of fandom, and what I don't know is how much of this there really is, especially outside of a few Western countries. Saara could come as high as sixth tonight, but the fan in me that's watched loud female up-tempo fan-favourites crash out time and again in the noughties isn't convinced.

So, my ranking:

1. Israel
2. Cyprus
3. Estonia
4. Czech Republic

5. Armenia
6. Ireland
7. Bulgaria
8. Azerbaijan
9. Lithuania
10. Greece

11. Finland
12. Austria
13. Belarus
14. Switzerland
15. Croatia

16. Belgium
17. Albania
18. Macedonia
19. Iceland