Tuesday, 8 May 2018

Fiskeprediction Semi 1

I've been following rehearsals from Bergen and (very hot and sunny!) Lewisham so far this year, so be aware that I have no further magical insight than most of you. All of the below is merely based on whatever others have been saying, some short, official rehearsal clips (i've completely avoided full videos filmed with Nokia 3210 cameras from the back of the hall and such), and a little peek at betting odds fluctuations - but mainly simply my own head and heart and belly and weak bones. To be fair, my predictions in the past have often been better more correct before rehearsals start than after following rehearsals on-site and getting caught in various bubbles and group-thinking, so maybe I'm more to be trusted than some other years...?

Probably not, but hey ho.

We'll obvs not know the full results of tonight's semi until after the final, but I'll attempt a prediction of the complete ranking anyway, maybe msot of all to try to sort out my own thoughts a bit.

1 Estonia | I've liked this a lot since the first time I heard it (and still do), but have never had any faith in it being a winner. Yet here we are... It just feels like while most other favourites have had various hiccups or little things not quite coming together on stage, this seems to be very slick and exactly how it should be, and obviously standing out a mile, much thanks to the dress. I tend to insist you need a really strong song to swwep up the votes, but sometimes the visuals can be enough too, provided the song is decent enough and fits as a soundtrack.
2 Israel | Maybe not quite as excellent as the preview video, but hey, a few steps down from that is still pretty kickass.
3 Cyprus | I was very hopeful when Eleni was announced, as I had hopes for another "Τι Κοιτάς", but I was quite disappointed when the song came out. Promising build-up, but just no chorus at all. The disappointment has faded a bit thanks to this.
4 Czechia | Never quite saw this as a contender for the top spot, but should do decently well.
5 Austria | I fear the televoters will forget this one a bit, so not really hopeful of it doing much come Saturday (even though it deserves it!), but I'm expecting more than enough jury support tonight to make it qualify.
6 Ireland | Sweet, gentle and genuine near the end tends to go well, and the performance of this actually seems to work too. How un-Irish :-o
7 Bulgaria | I really don't understand why they needed to drag up all these people nobody know to fight over the attention in this. Nor do I understand who is going to vote massively for it. But it can't just all be hype, can it...?
8 Greece | No, it can't do a "1944", it doesn't have anything in common with it.
9 Belarus | Anyone else thinking this can make it, or is it just me? It's obviously ridiculous, but I think there might be an audience for this in certain parts of the continent. I also actually think it's a great song, so I might be a bit biased here...
10 Finland | I've been swapping this and Azerbaijan about eleventy-five times now, so I just have to settle for one of them. This is slightly stronger, slightly more "edgy", and a bit later in the draw...
11 Azerbaijan | ...while this is slightly more Azerbaijan, which kinda should trump the above, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
12 Lithuania | It has gained some momentum during rehearsals, and I do think it's quite lovely, but something has to go...
13 Armenia | I tend to forget this exists, and with an Armenian diaspora that's starting to seem slightly less interested, maybe they will too?
14 Albania | I really hope I'm wrong here - maaaayyybe the jury will appreciate his professionalism? Pwettypwease...? 🤞
15 Croatia | At least they're not pouring sand in their faces on stage, that's worth a few points.
16 Belgium | I always found this one 'nice', but rather chanceless. Glad to see most others have come to their senses too.
17 Switzerland | Raise your hand if you hate that hat 🙋‍
18 Macedonia | I looooove this, and I am a firm believer in the fact that great things generally will do great, but no rule without exceptions, I suppose... 😔
19 Iceland | It's just too obvious to predict it last, but then sometimes very obvious things happen.

Decently confident of the first 5-6 or so here, but after that, anything can happen! We're in for a fun and dramatic night!

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