Semi 1 is a really tough one to predict. There are about 13 qualifiers that, under other circumstances and with different competition, would be a sure bet for the final. I don't think there are any potential shock qualifiers tonight, but there's a few possible surprise non-qualifiers.
1. Portugal - I'm thinking, and hoping, that this is the Calm After the Storm of this year.
7. Moldova - ugh, but the running order, coupled with the performance, has been a gift for this one.
8. Azerbaijan - a safe qualifier, but I'm not convinced either the song or the act are as vote-grabby as many think, and I'll be looking to back out of my Top 10 final bet on this.
10. Latvia - because the worst result for a song performed last in the running order since 2013 is 11th, and Triana Park only look about 80% as ridiculous as Moje 3 did.
11. Poland - I'm very on the fence with this one. We've seen they have a motivated diaspora, but they haven't been fully tested yet.
12. Belgium - I've always thought it was battling Finland for votes, and the way things have been going from rehearsals, Blanche is losing that battle.
13. Georgia - I had it as a potential borderline qualifier prior to rehearsals, but they just haven't brought the performance this year.
16. Iceland - because you need a face that people want to vote for.
17. Albania - amaze, obvs, but too shouty and inaccessible, and the votes it was going to get will be swallowed by Georgia.
18. Czech Republic - because as Rykka showed us last year, sometimes the obvious last placer really is the last of its kind.