Saturday, 13 May 2017

My final prediction

I said in my last post that I can't see any entry other than the current three favourites making it to the top. And I'm sticking by that - I can't see anything else other than those three winning. But I can see them out of the Top 3 altogether, if it doesn't come together for them. In fact, in the case of Italy, in particular, there's a chance it really doesn't happen for them tonight, and Francesco ends up taking Amir's trajectory from last year.

I don't really think any of the three are failing completely - but I also don't think it's completely out of the question.

Anyway, enough waffling and avoiding starting predicting - let's get on with a ranking. But just to procrastinate even further, let's do it from bottom to top.

26. Spain
25. Germany
- I don't see any way this pair avoid the bottom 2.
24. Austria - too early and not enough friends to lift this out of the bottom 5.
23. Hungary
22. Ukraine

21. Poland - only escaping bottom 5 because of their diaspora.
20. Belarus - third in the running order is far too early for this.
19. Netherlands
18. France
- now it's on last, this is basically Molly's Children of the Universe.
17. Australia - maybe there's something I'm missing on this one, but it bores me terribly, and the live performance on Tuesday was poor, but it clearly has its fans, so that has to count for something.
16. Azerbaijan - I initally had this higher, but there's no way the producers would have placed it after Portugal if it did well on Tuesday.
15. Cyprus
14. Norway
13. United Kingdom
- the UK is always overrated by fans once it comes to rehearsals and the night itself. Lucie's doing better than the UK has for a long time, but I don't see a Top 10 here.
12. Croatia
11. Greece
- look out for a big jump up the order after the televoting.
10. Israel
9. Denmark
- will struggle not to get drowned by Italy and Portugal, but I actually think the song's genericness is a positive here.
8. Romania
7. Moldova
- hang on, how did this end up this high? I really don't see it in 7th, but then I also somehow see it doing better than the songs below it...
6. Armenia
5. Italy
4. Belgium
3. Sweden
- so yes, my prediction is that Italy just isn't going to catch on tonight, and that Belgium and Sweden will pop above them. And of the two, Sweden seems a more secure chance of getting plenty of votes from both televoters and juries. It's not my kind of thing at all (and not really the kind of music that fans listen to either), so I suspect it's doing better than we think.
2. Bulgaria
1. Portugal
- I'm just hoping against hope that my concerns about televoters' and juries' hesitations to vote for a non-English ballad are wrong and will be overcome by the excellence of the song and the performance.

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