Saturday, 23 May 2015

Predicting the final

Well, here we are. It's going to be really interesting afterwards to look back at all these predictions, because either it's going to be a 'that was such an easy year to predict' contest, or it's going to be a 'we never saw that coming'.

I haven't changed many of my predictions throughout the season, and very little has actually changed this week either. A few have popped upwards and a couple of others have fallen even lower, but particularly at the top end, the status quo rules supreme.

So, here we go, my Top 27 prediction:

1. Sweden - watching it on Thursday I didn't actually feel captured by the same magic I did when I first saw it in Melodifestivalen, so I was tempted to rate it lower. But I'm still sticking by my gut, that the best visual show wins, and that this is still the best visual show.
2. Belgium - a big climber, doing well on the iTunes charts, and seems to be getting positive comments from bloggers despite the challenge of performing after Australia.
3. Russia - I've always thought this would do well, but similarly have never thought it would win. I just don't think Russia, as a country, can win Eurovision in the current climate.
4. Norway
5. Estonia
- Also doing well on iTunes, I do think this is too negative as a performance to win, but they do communicate the message very well, and I think that's enough to lift it into the top 5.

6. Australia - I had this down as a potential winner for much of the season, but rehearsal reports and videos have lost Guy some of his momentum. I think it'll be where I originally predicted it back in March when first challenged by friends - 6th.
7. Italy
8. Cyprus
9. Latvia
- there's a small part of me that thinks this can possibly go even higher, but I'm not confident enough to bet on it for Top 5.
10. Azerbaijan

11. Georgia
- definitely an outside for the top 10, particularly with its draw.
12. Austria - one that I think could surprise a little.
13. Slovenia - I managed to lay this for Top 10 at odds of 2 during the semi-final. It's gone further out since, so I could back it and make an automatic profit now, but I'm sticking to my guns on this one.
14. Romania
15. Spain
16. Israel
17. Germany
18. Serbia
- I'm placing both this and Israel in the category of 'great fun in the semi, underwhelming and throwaway in the final'.
19. Albania - consensus seems to be that it scraped through on Tuesday. I'm not so sure, but I don't think it's much of a contender tonight.
20. Armenia

21. Greece
22. Lithuania
- too lightweight to really make an impact, would have benefited greatly from being near the end of the show.
23. Hungary
24. Montenegro
25. France
- would have stood a chance of a good result from a second-half draw. At second, it's screwed.
26. Poland - benefited greatly from being on last on Thursday. It's late again, but I don't see why anyone would choose this over many of the other ballads on offer.
27. UK - just... why would anyone vote for this?

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