Semi 2 - a prediction

On Tuesday, I got 8/10 right, and I thought that was the easier semi to predict! There's a lot more tonight that I'm far less sure about, partly because there are a number of performances that are in question - both in terms of whether the singers in question will be able to deliver, and whether that will really matter.

1. Bulgaria - obvious jury magnet, and lots of televote points too.
2. Denmark - again, another obvious jury magnet, and it's been looking and sounding great in rehearsals.
3. Israel - as I alluded to in a previous post, I'm expecting this to be really lifted by the crowd, and benefit greatly from that, like Blanche did on Tuesday.
4. Romania
5. Netherlands
6. Estonia
7. Hungary
8. Austria
9. Ireland - I've been betting against it all season, but I think it has a distinctive look, and a singer with a very voteable face among his demographic. I'm not sure the high notes are going to matter much.
10. Croatia - I really hope I'm wrong, and that...

11. Belarus qualifies instead.
12. Macedonia - has a chance of qualifying if it can repeat Blanche's arc throughout the season, with an excellent video, ropey live concert performances, weak rehearsals improving just enough by the night, with a big fan reaction. I'm really not sure here.
13. Switzerland - I've been sure of this as a NQ all season, ever since it was picked. It just seemed like another piece of Swiss bland that would fall right through the gaps again. But as April has gone on, it's been picking up a lot of momentum among the fans, and listening to it again, I'm much more positive about it. Despite that, I'm going to stick to my initial instinct.
14. Serbia
15. Malta
16. Norway - like Icebreaker, I just don't think it's going to come across to an audience at home. And with two NQs, will we be able to get rid of Jan Fredrik Karlsen? Please?
17. San Marino - because not even Valentina's boundless enthusiasm can save it.
18. Lithuania