Semi 2 guesswork

I'm not even going to call it a prediction. It seems most people agree this semi could go all kinds of way, most of which are "Bulgaria + 9 others".

I've spent a lot of time thinking, re-thinking and over-thinking and have somehow ended up with this list.

Austria (hoping more than believing at this stage, but based on first rehearsal gut instinct)
Malta (it has no direct competition for old-fashioned balladry but they spent all their money last year, so maybe the juries won't like them as much as usual, ahem)
Romania (because Romania)
Netherlands (have been confident all along, now worried it might turn into this semi's Finland)
Denmark (dull competence, now hoping it might turn into this semi's Finland)
Croatia (less confident than I was after the first rehearsal as they seem to have replaced some of the fun with seriousness)
Belarus (because happy vibes)
Bulgaria (a bit underwhelming in rehearsals, but expectations were too high probably)
Lithuania (because we need a LOLZ moment)
Israel (the last song to perform surely won't fail to Q in both semis)

Estonia should be the Baltic qualifier, but the rehearsals have been mixed and it might just be too cheesy and dated for juries.

Macedonia could quite easily do a Belgium, getting through on a just about sufficient performance of a very good song.

The running order was presumably meant to make Norway seem professional, normal and of high standard coming after San Marino and Croatia, but there's a risk it will not get noticed, at least by televoters who will still be talking about All The Jacqueses.

Hungary will have its fans and I initially thought it a safe qualifier, but it might struggle to hold interest through the long rap part.

And OK, I wouldn't really be surprised if any of the others qualify (except Switzerland). Even San Marino (see Lithuania for explanation).

Which just leaves me to ask random.org for an alternative opinion:

Estonia
Macedonia
Serbia
Netherlands
Denmark
Lithuania
Ireland
Bulgaria
Israel
Romania